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 Bayesian Learning


Designing Graph Convolutional Neural Networks for Discrete Choice with Network Effects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel model architecture that incorporates network effects into discrete choice problems, achieving higher predictive performance than standard discrete choice models while offering greater interpretability than general-purpose flexible model classes. Econometric discrete choice models aid in studying individual decision-making, where agents select the option with the highest reward from a discrete set of alternatives. Intuitively, the utility an individual derives from a particular choice depends on their personal preferences and characteristics, the attributes of the alternative, and the value their peers assign to that alternative or their previous choices. However, most applications ignore peer influence, and models that do consider peer or network effects often lack the flexibility and predictive performance of recently developed approaches to discrete choice, such as deep learning. We propose a novel graph convolutional neural network architecture to model network effects in discrete choices, achieving higher predictive performance than standard discrete choice models while retaining the interpretability necessary for inference--a quality often lacking in general-purpose deep learning architectures. We evaluate our architecture using revealed commuting choice data, extended with travel times and trip costs for each travel mode for work-related trips in New York City, as well as 2016 U.S. election data aggregated by county, to test its performance on datasets with highly imbalanced classes. Given the interpretability of our models, we can estimate relevant economic metrics, such as the value of travel time savings in New York City. Finally, we compare the predictive performance and behavioral insights from our architecture to those derived from traditional discrete choice and general-purpose deep learning models.


Towards Regulatory-Confirmed Adaptive Clinical Trials: Machine Learning Opportunities and Solutions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for evaluating the effect of new medical treatments. Treatments must pass stringent regulatory conditions in order to be approved for widespread use, yet even after the regulatory barriers are crossed, real-world challenges might arise: Who should get the treatment? What is its true clinical utility? Are there discrepancies in the treatment effectiveness across diverse and under-served populations? We introduce two new objectives for future clinical trials that integrate regulatory constraints and treatment policy value for both the entire population and under-served populations, thus answering some of the questions above in advance. Designed to meet these objectives, we formulate Randomize First Augment Next (RFAN), a new framework for designing Phase III clinical trials. Our framework consists of a standard randomized component followed by an adaptive one, jointly meant to efficiently and safely acquire and assign patients into treatment arms during the trial. Then, we propose strategies for implementing RFAN based on causal, deep Bayesian active learning. Finally, we empirically evaluate the performance of our framework using synthetic and real-world semi-synthetic datasets.


DistJoin: A Decoupled Join Cardinality Estimator based on Adaptive Neural Predicate Modulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Research on learned cardinality estimation has achieved significant progress in recent years. However, existing methods still face distinct challenges that hinder their practical deployment in production environments. We conceptualize these challenges as the "Trilemma of Cardinality Estimation", where learned cardinality estimation methods struggle to balance generality, accuracy, and updatability. To address these challenges, we introduce DistJoin, a join cardinality estimator based on efficient distribution prediction using multi-autoregressive models. Our contributions are threefold: (1) We propose a method for estimating both equi and non-equi join cardinality by leveraging the conditional probability distributions of individual tables in a decoupled manner. (2) To meet the requirements of efficient training and inference for DistJoin, we develop Adaptive Neural Predicate Modulation (ANPM), a high-throughput conditional probability distribution estimation model. (3) We formally analyze the variance of existing similar methods and demonstrate that such approaches suffer from variance accumulation issues. To mitigate this problem, DistJoin employs a selectivity-based approach rather than a count-based approach to infer join cardinality, effectively reducing variance. In summary, DistJoin not only represents the first data-driven method to effectively support both equi and non-equi joins but also demonstrates superior accuracy while enabling fast and flexible updates. We evaluate DistJoin on JOB-light and JOB-light-ranges, extending the evaluation to non-equi join conditions. The results demonstrate that our approach achieves the highest accuracy, robustness to data updates, generality, and comparable update and inference speed relative to existing methods.


ExMAG: Learning of Maximally Ancestral Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As one transitions from statistical to causal learning, one is seeking the most appropriate causal model. Dynamic Bayesian networks are a popular model, where a weighted directed acyclic graph represents the causal relationships. Stochastic processes are represented by its vertices, and weighted oriented edges suggest the strength of the causal relationships. When there are confounders, one would like to utilize both oriented edges (when the direction of causality is clear) and edges that are not oriented (when there is a confounder), yielding mixed graphs. A little-studied extension of acyclicity to this mixed-graph setting is known as maximally ancestral graphs. We propose a score-based learning algorithm for learning maximally ancestral graphs. A mixed-integer quadratic program is formulated, and an algorithmic approach is proposed, in which the pre-generation of exponentially many constraints is avoided by generating only violated constraints in the so-called branch-and-cut (``lazy constraint'') method. Comparing the novel approach to the state-of-the-art, we show that the proposed approach turns out to produce more accurate results when applied to small and medium-sized synthetic instances containing up to 25 variables.


Revolution of Wireless Signal Recognition for 6G: Recent Advances, Challenges and Future Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wireless signal recognition (WSR) is a crucial technique for intelligent communications and spectrum sharing in the next six-generation (6G) wireless communication networks. It can be utilized to enhance network performance and efficiency, improve quality of service (QoS), and improve network security and reliability. Additionally, WSR can be applied for military applications such as signal interception, signal race, and signal abduction. In the past decades, great efforts have been made for the research of WSR. Earlier works mainly focus on model-based methods, including likelihood-based (LB) and feature-based (FB) methods, which have taken the leading position for many years. With the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI), intelligent methods including machine learning-based (ML-based) and deep learning-based (DL-based) methods have been developed to extract the features of the received signals and perform the classification. In this work, we provide a comprehensive review of WSR from the view of applications, main tasks, recent advances, datasets and evaluation metrics, challenges, and future directions. Specifically, intelligent WSR methods are introduced from the perspective of model, data, learning and implementation. Moreover, we analyze the challenges for WSR from the view of complex, dynamic, and open 6G wireless environments and discuss the future directions for WSR. This survey is expected to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art WSR techniques and inspire new research directions for WSR in 6G networks.


Capture Global Feature Statistics for One-Shot Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional Federated Learning (FL) necessitates numerous rounds of communication between the server and clients, posing significant challenges including high communication costs, connection drop risks and susceptibility to privacy attacks. One-shot FL has become a compelling learning paradigm to overcome above drawbacks by enabling the training of a global server model via a single communication round. However, existing one-shot FL methods suffer from expensive computation cost on the server or clients and cannot deal with non-IID (Independent and Identically Distributed) data stably and effectively. To address these challenges, this paper proposes FedCGS, a novel Federated learning algorithm that Capture Global feature Statistics leveraging pre-trained models. With global feature statistics, we achieve training-free and heterogeneity-resistant one-shot FL. Furthermore, we extend its application to personalization scenario, where clients only need execute one extra communication round with server to download global statistics. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods across diverse data heterogeneity settings. Code is available at https://github.com/Yuqin-G/FedCGS.


Cascade of one-class classifier ensemble and dynamic naive Bayes classifier applied to the myoelectric-based upper limb prosthesis control with contaminated channels detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern upper limb bioprostheses are typically controlled by sEMG signals using a pattern recognition scheme in the control process. Unfortunately, the sEMG signal is very susceptible to contamination that deteriorates the quality of the control system and reduces the usefulness of the prosthesis in the patient's everyday life. In the paper, the authors propose a new recognition system intended for sEMG-based control of the hand prosthesis with detection of contaminated sEMG signals. The originality of the proposed solution lies in the co-operation of two recognition systems working in a cascade structure: (1) an ensemble of one-class classifiers used to recognise contaminated signals and (2) a naive Bayes classifier (NBC) which recognises the patient's intentions using the information about contaminations produced by the ensemble. Although in the proposed approach, the NBC model is changed dynamically, due to the multiplicative form of the classification functions, training can be performed in a one-shot procedure. Experimental studies were conducted using real sEMG signals. The results obtained confirm the hypothesis that the use of the one-class classifier ensemble and the dynamic NBC model leads to improved classification quality.


Beyond One-Size-Fits-All Summarization: Customizing Summaries for Diverse Users

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, automatic text summarization has witnessed significant advancement, particularly with the development of transformer-based models. However, the challenge of controlling the readability level of generated summaries remains an under-explored area, especially for languages with complex linguistic features like Turkish. This gap has the effect of impeding effective communication and also limits the accessibility of information. Controlling readability of textual data is an important element for creating summaries for different audiences with varying literacy and education levels, such as students ranging from primary school to graduate level, as well as individuals with diverse educational backgrounds. Summaries that align with the needs of specific reader groups can improve comprehension and engagement, ensuring that the intended message is effectively communicated. Furthermore, readability adjustment is essential to expand the usability of summarization models in educational and professional domains. Current summarization models often don't have the mechanisms to adjust the complexity of their outputs, resulting in summaries that may be too simplistic or overly complex for certain types of reader groups. Developing adaptive models that can tailor content to specific readability levels is therefore crucial. To address this problem, we create our own custom dataset and train a model with our custom architecture. Our method ensures that readability levels are effectively controlled while maintaining accuracy and coherence. We rigorously compare our model to a supervised fine-tuned baseline, demonstrating its superiority in generating readability-aware summaries.


CAD-VAE: Leveraging Correlation-Aware Latents for Comprehensive Fair Disentanglement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While deep generative models have significantly advanced representation learning, they may inherit or amplify biases and fairness issues by encoding sensitive attributes alongside predictive features. Enforcing strict independence in disentanglement is often unrealistic when target and sensitive factors are naturally correlated. To address this challenge, we propose CAD-VAE (Correlation-Aware Disentangled VAE), which introduces a correlated latent code to capture the shared information between target and sensitive attributes. Given this correlated latent, our method effectively separates overlapping factors without extra domain knowledge by directly minimizing the conditional mutual information between target and sensitive codes. A relevance-driven optimization strategy refines the correlated code by efficiently capturing essential correlated features and eliminating redundancy. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that CAD-VAE produces fairer representations, realistic counterfactuals, and improved fairness-aware image editing.


Actual Causation and Nondeterministic Causal Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In (Beckers, 2025) I introduced nondeterministic causal models as a generalization of Pearl's standard deterministic causal models. I here take advantage of the increased expressivity offered by these models to offer a novel definition of actual causation (that also applies to deterministic models). Instead of motivating the definition by way of (often subjective) intuitions about examples, I proceed by developing it based entirely on the unique function that it can fulfil in communicating and learning a causal model. First I generalize the more basic notion of counterfactual dependence, second I show how this notion has a vital role to play in the logic of causal discovery, third I introduce the notion of a structural simplification of a causal model, and lastly I bring both notions together in my definition of actual causation. Although novel, the resulting definition arrives at verdicts that are almost identical to those of my previous definition (Beckers, 2021, 2022).