Exponential growth in scientific literature has heightened the demand for efficient evidence-based synthesis, driving the rise of the field of Automated Meta-analysis (AMA) powered by natural language processing and machine learning. This PRISMA systematic review introduces a structured framework for assessing the current state of AMA, based on screening 978 papers from 2006 to 2024, and analyzing 54 studies across diverse domains. Findings reveal a predominant focus on automating data processing (57%), such as extraction and statistical modeling, while only 17% address advanced synthesis stages. Just one study (2%) explored preliminary full-process automation, highlighting a critical gap that limits AMA's capacity for comprehensive synthesis. Despite recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) and advanced AI, their integration into statistical modeling and higher-order synthesis, such as heterogeneity assessment and bias evaluation, remains underdeveloped. This has constrained AMA's potential for fully autonomous meta-analysis. From our dataset spanning medical (67%) and non-medical (33%) applications, we found that AMA has exhibited distinct implementation patterns and varying degrees of effectiveness in actually improving efficiency, scalability, and reproducibility. While automation has enhanced specific meta-analytic tasks, achieving seamless, end-to-end automation remains an open challenge. As AI systems advance in reasoning and contextual understanding, addressing these gaps is now imperative. Future efforts must focus on bridging automation across all meta-analysis stages, refining interpretability, and ensuring methodological robustness to fully realize AMA's potential for scalable, domain-agnostic synthesis.

--Since the emergence of autonomous driving technology, it has advanced rapidly over the past decade. It is becoming increasingly likely that autonomous vehicles (A Vs) would soon coexist with human-driven vehicles (HVs) on the roads. Currently, safety and reliable decision-making remain significant challenges, particularly when A Vs are navigating lane changes and interacting with surrounding HVs. Therefore, precise estimation of the intentions of surrounding HVs can assist A Vs in making more reliable and safe lane change decision-making. This involves not only understanding their current behaviors but also predicting their future motions without any direct communication. However, distinguishing between the passing and yielding intentions of surrounding HVs still remains ambiguous. T o address the challenge, we propose a social intention estimation algorithm rooted in Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), coupled with a decision-making framework employing Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms. T o evaluate the method's performance, the proposed framework can be tested and applied in a lane-changing scenario within a simulated environment. Furthermore, the experiment results demonstrate how our approach enhances the ability of A Vs to navigate lane changes safely and efficiently on roads. UTONOMOUS driving decision-making is a critical component of autonomous driving systems, aiming to make reasonable and safe driving decisions based on environmental perception [1]. The decision-making process not only needs to consider the kinematic and dynamic constraints of the vehicle but also needs to comply with traffic rules, evaluate potential risks, and coexist safely with other traffic participants in complex driving scenarios, such as executing lane changes on highways and navigating intersections, as illustrated in Figure 1. Executing lane changes on the highway remains a formidable challenge for A Vs in the real world, primarily due to environmental complexity and uncertainty. Jing Wang, Y an Jin are with the School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom (email: jwang61@qub.ac.uk, y.jin@qub.ac.uk)

We study the complexity of satisfiability problems in probabilistic and causal reasoning. Given random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ over finite domains, the basic terms are probabilities of propositional formulas over atomic events $X_i = x_i$, such as $P(X_1 = x_1)$ or $P(X_1 = x_1 \vee X_2 = x_2)$. The basic terms can be combined using addition (yielding linear terms) or multiplication (polynomial terms). The probabilistic satisfiability problem asks whether a joint probability distribution satisfies a Boolean combination of (in)equalities over such terms. Fagin et al. (1990) showed that for basic and linear terms, this problem is NP-complete, making it no harder than Boolean satisfiability, while Mossé et al. (2022) proved that for polynomial terms, it is complete for the existential theory of the reals. Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH) extends the probabilistic setting with interventional and counterfactual reasoning, enriching the expressiveness of languages. However, Mossé et al. (2022) found that satisfiability complexity remains unchanged. Van der Zander et al. (2023) showed that introducing a marginalization operator to languages induces a significant increase in complexity. We extend this line of work by adding two new dimensions to the problem by constraining the models. First, we fix the graph structure of the underlying structural causal model, motivated by settings like Pearl's do-calculus, and give a nearly complete landscape across different arithmetics and PCH levels. Second, we study small models. While earlier work showed that satisfiable instances admit polynomial-size models, this is no longer guaranteed with compact marginalization. We characterize the complexities of satisfiability under small-model constraints across different settings.

--We consider a model of Bayesian observational learning in which a sequence of agents receives a private signal about an underlying binary state of the world. Each agent makes a decision based on its own signal and its observations of previous agents. A central planner seeks to improve the accuracy of these signals by allocating a limited budget to enhance signal quality across agents. We formulate and analyze the budget allocation problem and propose two optimal allocation strategies. At least one of these strategies is shown to maximize the probability of achieving a correct information cascade. I NTRODUCTION Consider that an item, which could either be of a "good" or a "bad" quality, is up for sale in a market where agents arrive sequentially and decide whether to buy the item, with their choice serving as a recommendation for later agents. While the quality of the item is unknown to the agents, every agent has its own prior knowledge of the item's quality in the form of its private belief. Each agent then makes a payoff optimal decision based on its own prior knowledge and by observing the choices of its predecessors. Such models of "observational learning" were first studied by [1]-[3] under a Bayesian learning framework wherein each agent's prior knowledge is in the form of a privately observed signal about the pay-off-relevant state of the world, which in this case is the item's quality, and is generated from a commonly known probability distribution. A salient feature of such models is the emergence of information cascades or herding, i.e., at some point, it is optimal for an agent to ignore its own private signal and follow the actions of the past agents. Subsequent agents then follow suit due to their homogeneity.

The integration of Deep Learning (DL) into experimental nuclear and particle physics has driven significant progress in simulation and reconstruction workflows. However, traditional simulation frameworks such as Geant4 remain computationally intensive, especially for Cherenkov detectors, where simulating optical photon transport through complex geometries and reflective surfaces introduces a major bottleneck. To address this, we present an open, standalone fast simulation tool for Detection of Internally Reflected Cherenkov Light (DIRC) detectors, with a focus on the High-Performance DIRC (hpDIRC) at the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). Our framework incorporates a suite of generative models tailored to accelerate particle identification (PID) tasks by offering a scalable, GPU-accelerated alternative to full Geant4 -based simulations. Designed with accessibility in mind, our simulation package enables both DL researchers and physicists to efficiently generate high-fidelity large-scale datasets on demand, without relying on complex traditional simulation stacks. This flexibility supports the development and benchmarking of novel DL-driven PID methods. Moreover, this fast simulation pipeline represents a critical step toward enabling EIC-wide PID strategies that depend on virtually unlimited simulated samples, spanning the full acceptance of the hpDIRC.

Identification of defects or anomalies in 3D objects is a crucial task to ensure correct functionality. In this work, we combine Bayesian learning with recent developments in quantum and quantum-inspired machine learning, specifically orthogonal neural networks, to tackle this anomaly detection problem for an industrially relevant use case. Bayesian learning enables uncertainty quantification of predictions, while orthogonality in weight matrices enables smooth training. We develop orthogonal (quantum) versions of 3D convolutional neural networks and show that these models can successfully detect anomalies in 3D objects. To test the feasibility of incorporating quantum computers into a quantum-enhanced anomaly detection pipeline, we perform hardware experiments with our models on IBM's 127-qubit Brisbane device, testing the effect of noise and limited measurement shots.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to produce very high-quality tests and responses to our queries. But how much can we trust this generated text? In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty quantification in LLMs. We propose a novel Random-Set Large Language Model (RSLLM) approach which predicts finite random sets (belief functions) over the token space, rather than probability vectors as in classical LLMs. In order to allow so efficiently, we also present a methodology based on hierarchical clustering to extract and use a budget of "focal" subsets of tokens upon which the belief prediction is defined, rather than using all possible collections of tokens, making the method scalable yet effective. RS-LLMs encode the epistemic uncertainty induced in their generation process by the size and diversity of its training set via the size of the credal sets associated with the predicted belief functions. The proposed approach is evaluated on CoQA and OBQA datasets using Llama2-7b, Mistral-7b and Phi-2 models and is shown to outperform the standard model in both datasets in terms of correctness of answer while also showing potential in estimating the second level uncertainty in its predictions and providing the capability to detect when its hallucinating.

Kernel mean embeddings -- integrals of a kernel with respect to a probability distribution -- are essential in Bayesian quadrature, but also widely used in other computational tools for numerical integration or for statistical inference based on the maximum mean discrepancy. These methods often require, or are enhanced by, the availability of a closed-form expression for the kernel mean embedding. However, deriving such expressions can be challenging, limiting the applicability of kernel-based techniques when practitioners do not have access to a closed-form embedding. This paper addresses this limitation by providing a comprehensive dictionary of known kernel mean embeddings, along with practical tools for deriving new embeddings from known ones. We also provide a Python library that includes minimal implementations of the embeddings.

Integrating various data modalities brings valuable insights into underlying phenomena. Multimodal factor analysis (FA) uncovers shared axes of variation underlying different simple data modalities, where each sample is represented by a vector of features. However, FA is not suited for structured data modalities, such as text or single cell sequencing data, where multiple data points are measured per each sample and exhibit a clustering structure. To overcome this challenge, we introduce FACTM, a novel, multi-view and multi-structure Bayesian model that combines FA with correlated topic modeling and is optimized using variational inference. Additionally, we introduce a method for rotating latent factors to enhance interpretability with respect to binary features. On text and video benchmarks as well as real-world music and COVID-19 datasets, we demonstrate that FACTM outperforms other methods in identifying clusters in structured data, and integrating them with simple modalities via the inference of shared, interpretable factors.

Probabilities or confidence values produced by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models often do not reflect their true accuracy, with some models being under or over confident in their predictions. For example, if a model is 80% sure of an outcome, is it correct 80% of the time? Probability calibration metrics measure the discrepancy between confidence and accuracy, providing an independent assessment of model calibration performance that complements traditional accuracy metrics. Understanding calibration is important when the outputs of multiple systems are combined, for assurance in safety or business-critical contexts, and for building user trust in models. This paper provides a comprehensive review of probability calibration metrics for classifier and object detection models, organising them according to a number of different categorisations to highlight their relationships. We identify 82 major metrics, which can be grouped into four classifier families (point-based, bin-based, kernel or curve-based, and cumulative) and an object detection family. For each metric, we provide equations where available, facilitating implementation and comparison by future researchers.