A central issue in principal component analysis (PCA) is choosing the number of principal components to be retained. By interpreting PCA as density estimation, we show how to use Bayesian model selection to estimate thetrue dimensionality of the data. The resulting estimate is simple to compute yet guaranteed to pick the correct dimensionality, given enough data. The estimate involves an integral over the Steifel manifold of k-frames, which is difficult to compute exactly. But after choosing an appropriate parameterization and applying Laplace's method, an accurate andpractical estimator is obtained. In simulations, it is convincingly better than cross-validation and other proposed algorithms, plus it runs much faster.

This paper presents a unified probabilistic framework for denoising and dereverberation of speech signals. The framework transforms the denoising anddereverberation problems into Bayes-optimal signal estimation. The key idea is to use a strong speech model that is pre-trained on a large data set of clean speech. Computational efficiency is achieved by using variational EM, working in the frequency domain, and employing conjugate priors. The framework covers both single and multiple microphones. Weapply this approach to noisy reverberant speech signals and get results substantially better than standard methods.

We present an algorithm that samples the hypothesis space of kernel classifiers.Given a uniform prior over normalised weight vectors and a likelihood based on a model of label noise leads to a piecewise constantposterior that can be sampled by the kernel Gibbs sampler (KGS). The KGS is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method that chooses a random direction in parameter space and samples from the resulting piecewise constant density along the line chosen. The KGS can be used as an analytical tool for the exploration of Bayesian transduction, Bayes point machines, active learning, and evidence-based model selection on small data sets that are contaminated withlabel noise. For a simple toy example we demonstrate experimentally how a Bayes point machine based on the KGS outperforms anSVM that is incapable of taking into account label noise. 1 Introduction Two great ideas have dominated recent developments in machine learning: the application ofkernel methods and the popularisation of Bayesian inference. Focusing on the task of classification, various connections between the two areas exist: kernels havelong been a part of Bayesian inference in the disguise of covariance nmctions thatcharacterise priors over functions [9].

We propose a method of approximate dynamic programming for Markov decision processes (MDPs) using algebraic decision diagrams (ADDs). We produce near-optimal value functions and policies with much lower time and space requirements than exact dynamic programming. Our method reduces the sizes of the intermediate value functions generated during value iteration by replacing the values at the terminals of the ADD with ranges of values. Our method is demonstrated on a class of large MDPs (with up to 34 billion states), and we compare the results with the optimal value functions.

The mutual information of two random variables i and j with joint probabilities t_ij is commonly used in learning Bayesian nets as well as in many other fields. The chances t_ij are usually estimated by the empirical sampling frequency n_ij/n leading to a point estimate I(n_ij/n) for the mutual information. To answer questions like "is I(n_ij/n) consistent with zero?" or "what is the probability that the true mutual information is much larger than the point estimate?" one has to go beyond the point estimate. In the Bayesian framework one can answer these questions by utilizing a (second order) prior distribution p(t) comprising prior information about t. From the prior p(t) one can compute the posterior p(t|n), from which the distribution p(I|n) of the mutual information can be calculated. We derive reliable and quickly computable approximations for p(I|n). We concentrate on the mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis, and non-informative priors. For the mean we also give an exact expression. Numerical issues and the range of validity are discussed.

I consider the problem of learning an optimal path graphical model from data and show the problem to be NP-hard for the maximum likelihood and minimum description length approaches and a Bayesian approach. This hardness result holds despite the fact that the problem is a restriction of the polynomially solvable problem of finding the optimal tree graphical model.

The chief aim of this paper is to propose mean-field approximations for a broad class of Belief networks, of which sigmoid and noisy-or networks can be seen as special cases. The approximations are based on a powerful mean-field theory suggested by Plefka. We show that Saul, Jaakkola and Jordan' s approach is the first order approximation in Plefka's approach, via a variational derivation. The application of Plefka's theory to belief networks is not computationally tractable. To tackle this problem we propose new approximations based on Taylor series. Small scale experiments show that the proposed schemes are attractive.

A general notion of algebraic conditional plausibility measures is defined. Probability measures, ranking functions, possibility measures, and (under the appropriate definitions) sets of probability measures can all be viewed as defining algebraic conditional plausibility measures. It is shown that algebraic conditional plausibility measures can be represented using Bayesian networks.

We are interested in solving real-world planning problems and, to that end, argue for the use of domain knowledge in planning. We believe that the field must develop methods capable of using rich knowledge models to make planning tools useful for complex problems. We discuss the suitability of current planning paradigms for solving these problems. In particular, we compare knowledge rich approaches such as hierarchical task network planning to minimal-knowledge methods such as STRIPS-based planners and disjunctive planners. We argue that the former methods have advantages such as scalability, expressiveness, continuous plan modification during execution, and the ability to interact with humans. However, these planners also have limitations, such as requiring complete domain models and failing to model uncertainty, that often make them inadequate for real-world problems. In this article, we define the terms knowledge-based and primitive-action planning and argue for the use of knowledge-based planning as a paradigm for solving real-world problems. We next summarize some of the characteristics of real-world problems that we are interested in addressing. Several current real-world planning applications are described, focusing on the ways in which knowledge is brought to bear on the planning problem. We describe some existing knowledge-based approaches and then discuss additional capabilities, beyond those available in existing systems, that are needed. Finally, we draw an analogy from the current focus of the planning community on disjunctive planners to the experiences of the machine learning community over the past decade.

The problem of reinforcement learning in a non-Markov environment is explored using a dynamic Bayesian network, where conditional independence assumptions between random variables are compactly represented by network parameters. The parameters are learned online, and approximations are used to perform inference and to compute the optimal value function. The relative effects of inference and value function approximations on the quality of the final policy are investigated, by learning to solve a moderately difficult driving task. The two value function approximations, linear and quadratic, were found to perform similarly, but the quadratic model was more sensitive to initialization. Both performed below the level of human performance on the task. The dynamic Bayesian network performed comparably to a model using a localist hidden state representation, while requiring exponentially fewer parameters.