We estimate a statistical model of typical activities from a large set of 3D periodic human motion data by segmenting these data automatically into "cycles". Then the mean and the principal componentsof the cycles are computed using a new algorithm that accounts for missing information and enforces smooth transitions betweencycles. The learned temporal model provides a prior probability distribution over human motions that can be used in a Bayesian framework for tracking human subjects in complex monocular video sequences and recovering their 3D motion. 1 Introduction The modeling and tracking of human motion in video is important for problems as varied as animation, video database search, sports medicine, and human-computer interaction. Technically, the human body can be approximated by a collection of articulated limbs and its motion can be thought of as a collection of time-series describing the joint angles as they evolve over time. A key challenge in modeling these joint angles involves decomposing the time-series into suitable temporal primitives.

The Bayesian paradigm apparently only sometimes gives rise to Occam's Razor; at other times very large models perform well. We give simple examples of both kinds of behaviour. The two views are reconciled when measuring complexity of functions, rather than of the machinery used to implement them. We analyze the complexity of functions for some linear in the parameter models that are equivalent to Gaussian Processes, and always find Occam's Razor at work. 1 Introduction Occam's Razor is a well known principle of "parsimony of explanations" which is influential inscientific thinking in general and in problems of statistical inference in particular. In this paper we review its consequences for Bayesian statistical models, where its behaviour can be easily demonstrated and quantified.

When trying to recover 3D structure from a set of images, the most difficult problem is establishing the correspondence between the measurements. Most existing approaches assume that features can be tracked across frames, whereas methods that exploit rigidity constraints to facilitate matching do so only under restricted camera motion.In this paper we propose a Bayesian approach that avoids the brittleness associated with singling out one "best" correspondence, andinstead consider the distribution over all possible correspondences. We treat both a fully Bayesian approach that yields a posterior distribution, and a MAP approach that makes use of EM to maximize this posterior. We show how Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be used to implement these techniques in practice, and present experimental results on real data.

The sum-product algorithm can be directly applied in Gaussian networks and in graphs for coding, but for many conditional probabilityfunctions - including the sigmoid function - direct application of the sum-product algorithm is not possible. We introduce "accumulator networks" that have low local complexity (but exponential global complexity) so the sum-product algorithm can be directly applied. In an accumulator network, the probability of a child given its parents is computed by accumulating the inputs from the parents in a Markov chain or more generally a tree. After giving expressions for inference and learning in accumulator networks, wegive results on the "bars problem" and on the problem of extracting translated, overlapping faces from an image. 1 Introduction Graphical probability models with hidden variables are capable of representing complex dependenciesbetween variables, filling in missing data and making Bayesoptimal decisionsusing probabilistic inferences (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986; Pearl 1988; Neal 1992). Large, richly-connected networks with many cycles can potentially beused to model complex sources of data, such as audio signals, images and video. However, when the number of cycles in the network is large (more precisely, when the cut set size is exponential), exact inference becomes intractable. Also, to learn a probability model with hidden variables, we need to fill in the missing data using probabilistic inference, so learning also becomes intractable. To cope with the intractability of exact inference, a variety of approximate inference methods have been invented, including Monte Carlo (Hinton and Sejnowski 1986; Neal 1992), Helmholz machines (Dayan et al. 1995; Hinton et al. 1995), and variational techniques (Jordan et al. 1998).

Variational approximations are becoming a widespread tool for Bayesian learning of graphical models. We provide some theoretical resultsfor the variational updates in a very general family of conjugate-exponential graphical models. We show how the belief propagation and the junction tree algorithms can be used in the inference step of variational Bayesian learning. Applying these results tothe Bayesian analysis of linear-Gaussian state-space models we obtain a learning procedure that exploits the Kalman smoothing propagation,while integrating over all model parameters. We demonstrate how this can be used to infer the hidden state dimensionality ofthe state-space model in a variety of synthetic problems and one real high-dimensional data set. 1 Introduction Bayesian approaches to machine learning have several desirable properties. Bayesian integration does not suffer overfitting (since nothing is fit to the data). Prior knowledge canbe incorporated naturally and all uncertainty is manipulated in a consistent manner. Moreover it is possible to learn model structures and readily compare between model classes. Unfortunately, for most models of interest a full Bayesian analysis is computationally intractable.

Prior knowledge about video structure can be used both as a means to improve the peiformance of content analysis and to extract features that allow semantic classification. We introduce statistical models for two important components of this structure, shot duration and activity, and demonstrate the usefulness of these models by introducing a Bayesian formulation for the shot segmentation problem. The new formulations is shown to extend standard thresholding methods in an adaptive and intuitive way, leading to improved segmentation accuracy.

Bayesian networks are graphical representations of probability distributions. In virtually all of the work on learning these networks, the assumption is that we are presented with a data set consisting of randomly generated instances from the underlying distribution. In many situations, however, we also have the option of active learning, where we have the possibility of guiding the sampling process by querying for certain types of samples. This paper addresses the problem of estimating the parameters of Bayesian networks in an active learning setting. We provide a theoretical framework for this problem, and an algorithm that chooses which active learning queries to generate based on the model learned so far. We present experimental results showing that our active learning algorithm can significantly reduce the need for training data in many situations.

Jensen's inequality is a powerful mathematical tool and one of the workhorses in statistical learning. Its applications therein include the EM algorithm, Bayesian estimation and Bayesian inference. Jensen computes simplelower bounds on otherwise intractable quantities such as products of sums and latent log-likelihoods. This simplification then permits operationslike integration and maximization. Quite often (i.e. in discriminative learning) upper bounds are needed as well. We derive and prove an efficient analytic inequality that provides such variational upper bounds. This inequality holds for latent variable mixtures of exponential family distributions and thus spans a wide range of contemporary statistical models.We also discuss applications of the upper bounds including maximum conditional likelihood, large margin discriminative models and conditional Bayesian inference. Convergence, efficiency and prediction results are shown.

How should we decide among competing explanations of a cognitive process given limited observations? The problem of model selection is at the heart of progress in cognitive science. In this paper, Minimum Description Length (MDL) is introduced as a method for selecting among computational models of cognition. We also show that differential geometry provides an intuitive understanding of what drives model selection in MDL. Finally, adequacy of MDL is demonstrated in two areas of cognitive modeling.

Forexample, in medical diagnosis, the presence of a symptom can be expressed as a noisy-OR of the diseases that may cause the symptom - on some occasions, a disease may fail to activate the symptom. Inference in richly-connected noisy-OR networks is intractable, butapproximate methods (e .g., variational techniques) are showing increasing promise as practical solutions. One problem withmost approximations is that they tend to concentrate on a relatively small number of modes in the true posterior, ignoring otherplausible configurations of the hidden variables. We introduce a new sequential variational method for bipartite noisy OR networks, that favors including all modes of the true posterior and models the posterior distribution as a tree. We compare this method with other approximations using an ensemble of networks with network statistics that are comparable to the QMR-DT medical diagnosticnetwork. 1 Inclusive variational approximations Approximate algorithms for probabilistic inference are gaining in popularity and are now even being incorporated into VLSI hardware (T.