The nonnegative Boltzmann machine (NNBM) is a recurrent neural network model that can describe multimodal nonnegative data. Application of maximum likelihood estimation to this model gives a learning rule that is analogous to the binary Boltzmann machine. We examine the utility of the mean field approximation for the NNBM, and describe how Monte Carlo sampling techniques can be used to learn its parameters. Reflective slice sampling is particularly well-suited for this distribution, and can efficiently be implemented to sample the distribution. We illustrate learning of the NNBM on a transiationally invariant distribution, as well as on a generative model for images of human faces. Introduction The multivariate Gaussian is the most elementary distribution used to model generic data. It represents the maximum entropy distribution under the constraint that the mean and covariance matrix of the distribution match that of the data. For the case of binary data, the maximum entropy distribution that matches the first and second order statistics of the data is given by the Boltzmann machine [1].

Although one can derive the Gaussian noise assumption based on a maximum entropy approach, the main reason for this assumption is practicability: under the Gaussian noise assumption the maximum likelihood parameter estimate can simply be found by minimization of the squared error. Despite its common use it is far from clear that the Gaussian noise assumption is a good choice for many practical problems. A reasonable approach therefore would be a noise distribution which contains the Gaussian as a special case but which has a tunable parameter that allows for more flexible distributions.

The curse of dimensionality is severe when modeling high-dimensional discrete data: the number of possible combinations of the variables explodes exponentially. In this paper we propose a new architecture for modeling high-dimensional data that requires resources (parameters and computations) that grow only at most as the square of the number of variables, using a multi-layer neural network to represent the joint distribution of the variables as the product of conditional distributions. The neural network can be interpreted as a graphical model without hidden random variables, but in which the conditional distributions are tied through the hidden units. The connectivity of the neural network can be pruned by using dependency tests between the variables. Experiments on modeling the distribution of several discrete data sets show statistically significant improvements over other methods such as naive Bayes and comparable Bayesian networks, and show that significant improvements can be obtained by pruning the network. 1 Introduction The curse of dimensionality hits particularly hard on models of high-dimensional discrete data because there are many more possible combinations of the values of the variables than can possibly be observed in any data set, even the large data sets now common in datamining applications.

Local "belief propagation" rules of the sort proposed by Pearl [15] are guaranteed to converge to the correct posterior probabilities in singly connected graphical models. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstrated good performance of "loopy belief propagation" using these same rules on graphs with loops. Perhaps the most dramatic instance is the near Shannon-limit performance of "Turbo codes", whose decoding algorithm is equivalent to loopy belief propagation. Except for the case of graphs with a single loop, there has been little theoretical understanding of the performance of loopy propagation. Here we analyze belief propagation in networks with arbitrary topologies when the nodes in the graph describe jointly Gaussian random variables.

We present a new technique for time series analysis based on dynamic probabilistic networks. In this approach, the observed data are modeled in terms of unobserved, mutually independent factors, as in the recently introduced technique of Independent Factor Analysis (IFA). However, unlike in IFA, the factors are not Li.d.; each factor has its own temporal statistical characteristics. We derive a family of EM algorithms that learn the structure of the underlying factors and their relation to the data. These algorithms perform source separation and noise reduction in an integrated manner, and demonstrate superior performance compared to IFA. 1 Introduction The technique of independent factor analysis (IFA) introduced in [1] provides a tool for modeling L'-dim data in terms of L unobserved factors. These factors are mutually independent and combine linearly with added noise to produce the observed data.

In particular, Mackay showed that by approximating the distributions of the weights with Gaussians and adopting smoothing priors, it is possible to obtain estimates of the weights and output variances and to automatically set the regularisation coefficients. Neal (1996) cast the net much further by introducing advanced Bayesian simulation methods, specifically the hybrid Monte Carlo method, into the analysis of neural networks [3]. Bayesian sequential Monte Carlo methods have also been shown to provide good training results, especially in time-varying scenarios [4]. More recently, Rios Insua and Muller (1998) and Holmes and Mallick (1998) have addressed the issue of selecting the number of hidden neurons with growing and pruning algorithms from a Bayesian perspective [5,6]. In particular, they apply the reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Green [7] to feed-forward sigmoidal networks and radial basis function (RBF) networks to obtain joint estimates of the number of neurons and weights. We also apply the reversible jump MCMC simulation algorithm to RBF networks so as to compute the joint posterior distribution of the radial basis parameters and the number of basis functions. However, we advance this area of research in two important directions. Firstly, we propose a full hierarchical prior for RBF networks.

Gaussian mixtures (or so-called radial basis function networks) for density estimation provide a natural counterpart to sigmoidal neural networks for function fitting and approximation. In both cases, it is possible to give simple expressions for the iterative improvement of performance as components of the network are introduced one at a time. In particular, for mixture density estimation we show that a k-component mixture estimated by maximum likelihood (or by an iterative likelihood improvement that we introduce) achieves log-likelihood within order 1/k of the log-likelihood achievable by any convex combination. Consequences for approximation and estimation using Kullback-Leibler risk are also given. A Minimum Description Length principle selects the optimal number of components k that minimizes the risk bound. 1 Introduction In density estimation, Gaussian mixtures provide flexible-basis representations for densities that can be used to model heterogeneous data in high dimensions. Consider a parametric family G { pe(x), x E X C Rd': fJ E The main theme of the paper is to give approximation and estimation bounds of arbitrary densities by finite mixture densities.

This paper presents a novel practical framework for Bayesian model averaging and model selection in probabilistic graphical models. Our approach approximates full posterior distributions over model parameters and structures, as well as latent variables, in an analytical manner. These posteriors fall out of a free-form optimization procedure, which naturally incorporates conjugate priors. Unlike in large sample approximations, the posteriors are generally non Gaussian and no Hessian needs to be computed. Predictive quantities are obtained analytically. The resulting algorithm generalizes the standard Expectation Maximization algorithm, and its convergence is guaranteed. We demonstrate that this approach can be applied to a large class of models in several domains, including mixture models and source separation. 1 Introduction

We study a population decoding paradigm in which the maximum likelihood inference is based on an unfaithful decoding model (UMLI). This is usually the case for neural population decoding because the encoding process of the brain is not exactly known, or because a simplified decoding model is preferred for saving computational cost. We consider an unfaithful decoding model which neglects the pairwise correlation between neuronal activities, and prove that UMLI is asymptotically efficient when the neuronal correlation is uniform or of limited-range. The performance of UMLI is compared with that of the maximum likelihood inference based on a faithful model and that of the center of mass decoding method. It turns out that UMLI has advantages of decreasing the computational complexity remarkablely and maintaining a high-level decoding accuracy at the same time. The effect of correlation on the decoding accuracy is also discussed.

This paper argues that two apparently distinct modes of generalizing concepts - abstracting rules and computing similarity to exemplars - should both be seen as special cases of a more general Bayesian learning framework. Bayes explains the specific workings of these two modes - which rules are abstracted, how similarity is measured - as well as why generalization should appear rule-or similarity-based in different situations. This analysis also suggests why the rules/similarity distinction, even if not computationally fundamental, may still be useful at the algorithmic level as part of a principled approximation to fully Bayesian learning.