Bayesian Learning
Bayesian Detection of Infrequent Differences in Sets of Time Series with Shared Structure
Listgarten, Jennifer, Neal, Radford M., Roweis, Sam T., Puckrin, Rachel, Cutler, Sean
We present a hierarchical Bayesian model for sets of related, but different, classes of time series data. Our model performs alignment simultaneously across all classes, while detecting and characterizing class-specific differences. During inference themodel produces, for each class, a distribution over a canonical representation ofthe class. These class-specific canonical representations are automatically aligned to one another -- preserving common substructures, and highlighting differences.
A Bayesian Approach to Diffusion Models of Decision-Making and Response Time
Lee, Michael D., Fuss, Ian G., Navarro, Daniel J.
We present a computational Bayesian approach for Wiener diffusion models, which are prominent accounts of response time distributions in decision-making. We first develop a general closed-form analytic approximation to the response time distributions for one-dimensional diffusion processes, and derive the required Wiener diffusion as a special case. We use this result to undertake Bayesian modeling ofbenchmark data, using posterior sampling to draw inferences about the interesting psychological parameters. With the aid of the benchmark data, we show the Bayesian account has several advantages, including dealing naturally with the parameter variation needed to account for some key features of the data, and providing quantitative measures to guide decisions about model construction.
Causal inference in sensorimotor integration
Kรถrding, Konrad P., Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Many recent studies analyze how data from different modalities can be combined. Often this is modeled as a system that optimally combines several sources of information aboutthe same variable. However, it has long been realized that this information combining depends on the interpretation of the data. Two cues that are perceived by different modalities can have different causal relationships: (1) They can both have the same cause, in this case we should fully integrate both cues into a joint estimate.
Combining causal and similarity-based reasoning
Kemp, Charles, Shafto, Patrick, Berke, Allison, Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Everyday inductive reasoning draws on many kinds of knowledge, including knowledge about relationships between properties and knowledge about relationships between objects. Previous accounts of inductive reasoning generally focus on just one kind of knowledge: models of causal reasoning often focus on relationships between properties, and models of similarity-based reasoning often focus on similarity relationships between objects. We present a Bayesian model of inductive reasoning that incorporates both kinds of knowledge, and show that it accounts well for human inferences about the properties of biological species.
Learning Time-Intensity Profiles of Human Activity using Non-Parametric Bayesian Models
Ihler, Alexander T., Smyth, Padhraic
Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped eventsor counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer interaction,video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing individualtime-periods (e.g., several days) depending on which categories the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven fashion what "factors" are generating the observations on a particular day, including (forexample) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding tounique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated with each category. Applications to real-world data sets of count data involving both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.
Learning Nonparametric Models for Probabilistic Imitation
Grimes, David B., Rashid, Daniel R., Rao, Rajesh P.
Learning by imitation represents an important mechanism for rapid acquisition of new behaviors in humans and robots. A critical requirement for learning by imitation is the ability to handle uncertainty arising from the observation process as well as the imitator's own dynamics and interactions with the environment. In this paper, we present a new probabilistic method for inferring imitative actions that takes into account both the observations of the teacher as well as the imitator's dynamics. Our key contribution is a nonparametric learning method which generalizes to systems with very different dynamics. Rather than relying on a known forward model of the dynamics, our approach learns a nonparametric forward model via exploration. Leveraging advances in approximate inference in graphical models, we show how the learned forward model can be directly used to plan an imitating sequence. We provide experimental results for two systems: a biome-chanical model of the human arm and a 25-degrees-of-freedom humanoid robot. We demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to learn appropriate motor inputs to the model arm which imitates the desired movements. A second set of results demonstrates dynamically stable full-body imitation of a human teacher by the humanoid robot.
Multi-dynamic Bayesian Networks
Filali, Karim, Bilmes, Jeff A.
We present a generalization of dynamic Bayesian networks to concisely describe complex probability distributions such as in problems with multiple interacting variable-length streams of random variables. Our framework incorporates recent graphical model constructs to account for existence uncertainty, value-specific independence, aggregation relationships, and local and global constraints, while still retaining a Bayesian network interpretation and efficient inference and learning techniques.We introduce one such general technique, which is an extension of Value Elimination, a backtracking search inference algorithm. Multi-dynamic Bayesian networks are motivated by our work on Statistical Machine Translation (MT).We present results on MT word alignment in support of our claim that MDBNs are a promising framework for the rapid prototyping of new MT systems.