In kernel-based regression learning, optimizing each kernel individually is useful when the data density, curvature of regression surfaces (or decision boundaries) or magnitude of output noise (i.e., heteroscedasticity) varies spatially. Unfortunately, it presents a complex computational problem as the danger of overfitting is high and the individual optimization of every kernel in a learning system may be overly expensive due to the introduction of too many open learning parameters. Previous work has suggested gradient descent techniques or complex statistical hypothesis methods for local kernel shaping, typically requiring some amount of manual tuning of meta parameters. In this paper, we focus on nonparametric regression and introduce a Bayesian formulation that, with the help of variational approximations, results in an EM-like algorithm for simultaneous estimation of regression and kernel parameters. The algorithm is computationally efficient (suitable for large data sets), requires no sampling, automatically rejects outliers and has only one prior to be specified. It can be used for nonparametric regression with local polynomials or as a novel method to achieve nonstationary regression with Gaussian Processes. Our methods are particularly useful for learning control, where reliable estimation of local tangent planes is essential for adaptive controllers and reinforcement learning. We evaluate our methods on several synthetic data sets and on an actual robot which learns a task-level control law.

In many domains, data are distributed among datasets that share only some variables; other recorded variables may occur in only one dataset. There are several asymptotically correct, informative algorithms that search for causal information given a single dataset, even with missing values and hidden variables. There are, however, no such reliable procedures for distributed data with overlapping variables, and only a single heuristic procedure (Structural EM). This paper describes an asymptotically correct procedure, ION, that provides all the information about structure obtainable from the marginal independence relations. Using simulated and real data, the accuracy of ION is compared with that of Structural EM, and with inference on complete, unified data.

We develop a statistical framework for the simultaneous, unsupervised segmentation and discovery of visual object categories from image databases. Examining a large set of manually segmented scenes, we use chi--square tests to show that object frequencies and segment sizes both follow power law distributions, which are well modeled by the Pitman--Yor (PY) process. This nonparametric prior distribution leads to learning algorithms which discover an unknown set of objects, and segmentation methods which automatically adapt their resolution to each image. Generalizing previous applications of PY processes, we use Gaussian processes to discover spatially contiguous segments which respect image boundaries. Using a novel family of variational approximations, our approach produces segmentations which compare favorably to state--of--the--art methods, while simultaneously discovering categories shared among natural scenes.

Pattern classification approaches to analyzing functional neuroimaging data have become increasingly popular [12] [3] [4].

We describe a novel class of distributions, called Mondrian processes, which can be interpreted as probability distributions over kd-tree data structures. Mondrian processesare multidimensional generalizations of Poisson processes and this connection allows us to construct multidimensional generalizations of the stickbreaking processdescribed by Sethuraman (1994), recovering the Dirichlet process in one dimension. After introducing the Aldous-Hoover representation for jointly and separately exchangeable arrays, we show how the process can be used as a nonparametric prior distribution in Bayesian models of relational data.

A principled mechanism for identifying conditional dependencies in time-series data is provided through structure learning of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). An important assumption of DBN structure learning is that the data are generated by a stationary process—an assumption that is not true in many important settings. In this paper, we introduce a new class of graphical models called non-stationary dynamic Bayesian networks, in which the conditional dependence structure of the underlying data-generation process is permitted to change over time. Non-stationary dynamic Bayesian networks represent a new framework for studying problems in which the structure of a network is evolving over time. We define the non-stationary DBN model, present an MCMC sampling algorithm for learning the structure of the model from time-series data under different assumptions, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm on both simulated and biological data.

This paper studies global ranking problem by learning to rank methods. Conventional learning to rank methods are usually designed for `local ranking', in the sense that the ranking model is defined on a single object, for example, a document in information retrieval. For many applications, this is a very loose approximation. Relations always exist between objects and it is better to define the ranking model as a function on all the objects to be ranked (i.e., the relations are also included). This paper refers to the problem as global ranking and proposes employing a Continuous Conditional Random Fields (CRF) for conducting the learning task. The Continuous CRF model is defined as a conditional probability distribution over ranking scores of objects conditioned on the objects. It can naturally represent the content information of objects as well as the relation information between objects, necessary for global ranking. Taking two specific information retrieval tasks as examples, the paper shows how the Continuous CRF method can perform global ranking better than baselines.

Bartlett et al (2006) recently proved that a ground condition for convex surrogates, classification calibration, ties up the minimization of the surrogates and classification risks, and left as an important problem the algorithmic questions about the minimization of these surrogates. In this paper, we propose an algorithm which provably minimizes any classification calibrated surrogate strictly convex and differentiable --- a set whose losses span the exponential, logistic and squared losses ---, with boosting-type guaranteed convergence rates under a weak learning assumption. A particular subclass of these surrogates, that we call balanced convex surrogates, has a key rationale that ties it to maximum likelihood estimation, zero-sum games and the set of losses that satisfy some of the most common requirements for losses in supervised learning. We report experiments on more than 50 readily available domains of 11 flavors of the algorithm, that shed light on new surrogates, and the potential of data dependent strategies to tune surrogates.

Uncertainty is omnipresent when we perceive or interact with our environment, and the Bayesian framework provides computational methods for dealing with it. Mathematical models for Bayesian decision making typically require datastructures that are hard to implement in neural networks. This article shows that even the simplest and experimentally best supported type of synaptic plasticity, Hebbian learning, in combination with a sparse, redundant neural code, can in principle learn to infer optimal Bayesian decisions. We present a concrete Hebbian learning rule operating on log-probability ratios. Modulated by reward-signals, this Hebbian plasticity rule also provides a new perspective for understanding how Bayesian inference could support fast reinforcement learning in the brain. In particular we show that recent experimental results by Yang and Shadlen [1] on reinforcement learning of probabilistic inference in primates can be modeled in this way.

We present a simple new Monte Carlo algorithm for evaluating probabilities of observations in complex latent variable models, such as Deep Belief Networks. While the method is based on Markov chains, estimates based on short runs are formally unbiased. In expectation, the log probability of a test set will be underestimated, and this could form the basis of a probabilistic bound. The method is much cheaper than gold-standard annealing-based methods and only slightly more expensive than the cheapest Monte Carlo methods. We give examples of the new method substantially improving simple variational bounds at modest extra cost.