Constructing models of mobile agents can be difficult without domain-specific knowledge. Parametric models flexible enough to capture all mobility patterns that an expert believes are possible are often large, requiring a great deal of training data. In contrast, nonparametric models are extremely flexible and can generalize well with relatively little training data. We propose modeling the mobility patterns of moving agents as a mixture of Gaussian processes (GP) with a Dirichlet process (DP) prior over mixture weights. The GP provides a flexible representation for each individual mobility pattern, while the DP assigns observed trajectories to particular mobility patterns. Both the GPs and the DP adjust the model's complexity based on available data, implicitly avoiding issues of over-fitting or under-fitting. We apply our model to a helicopter-based tracking task, where the mobility patterns of the tracked agents — cars — are learned from real data collected from taxis in the greater Boston area.

In Service-Oriented Computing (SOC) environments, the trustworthiness of each service is critical for a service client when selecting one from a large pool of services. The trust value of a service is usually in the range of [0,1] and is evaluated from the ratings given by service clients, which represent the subjective belief of these service clients on the satisfaction of delivered services. So a trust value can be taken as the subjective probability, with which one party believes that another party can perform an action in a certain situation. Hence, subjective probability theory should be adopted in trust evaluation. In addition, in SOC environments, a service usually invokes other services offered by different service providers forming a composite service. Thus, the global trust of a composite service should be evaluated based on complex invocation structures. In this paper, firstly, based on Bayesian inference, we propose a novel method to evaluate the subjective trustworthiness of a service component from a series of ratings given by service clients. Secondly, we interpret the trust dependency caused by service invocations as conditional probability, which is evaluated based on the subjective trust values of service components. Furthermore, we propose a joint subjective probability method to evaluate the subjective global trust of a composite service on the basis of trust dependency. Finally, we introduce the results of our conducted experiments to illustrate the properties of our proposed subjective global trust inference method.

In an interlinked corpus of documents, the context in which a citation appears provides extra information about the cited document. However, associating terms in the context to the cited document remains an open problem. We propose a novel document generation approach that statistically incorporates the context in which a document links to another document. We quantitatively show that the proposed generation scheme explains the linking phenomenon better than previous approaches. The context information along with the actual content of the document provides significant improvements over the previous approaches for various real world evaluation tasks such as link prediction and log-likelihood estimation on unseen content. The proposed method is more scalable to large collection of documents compared to the previous approaches.

We explore the relationship between two approaches to rationalizing voting rules: the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework originally suggested by Condorcet and recently studied by Conitzer, Rognlie, and Xia, and the distance rationalizability (DR) framework of Elkind, Faliszewski, and Slinko. The former views voting as an attempt to reconstruct the correct ordering of the candidates given noisy estimates (i.e., votes), while the latter explains voting as search for the nearest consensus outcome. We provide conditions under which an MLE interpretation of a voting rule coincides with its DR interpretation, and classify a number of classic voting rules, such as Kemeny, Plurality, Borda and Single Transferable Vote (STV), according to how well they fit each of these frameworks. The classification we obtain is more precise than the ones that result from using MLE or DR alone: indeed, we show that the MLE approach can be used to guide our search for a more refined notion of distance rationalizability and vice versa.

Bayesian inference is an appealing approach for leveraging prior knowledge in reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper we describe an algorithm for discovering different classes of roles for agents via Bayesian inference. In particular, we develop a Bayesian policy search approach for Multi-Agent RL (MARL), which is model-free and allows for priors on policy parameters. We present a novel optimization algorithm based on hybrid MCMC, which leverages both the prior and gradient information estimated from trajectories. Our experiments in a complex real-time strategy game demonstrate the effective discovery of roles from supervised trajectories, the use of discovered roles for successful transfer to similar tasks, and the discovery of roles through reinforcement learning.

This paper introduces a principled approach for the design of a scalable general reinforcement learning agent. This approach is based on a direct approximation of AIXI, a Bayesian optimality notion for general reinforcement learning agents. Previously, it has been unclear whether the theory of AIXI could motivate the design of practical algorithms. We answer this hitherto open question in the affirmative, by providing the first computationally feasible approximation to the AIXI agent. To develop our approximation, we introduce a Monte Carlo Tree Search algorithm along with an agent-specific extension of the Context Tree Weighting algorithm. Empirically, we present a set of encouraging results on a number of stochastic, unknown, and partially observable domains.

Matrix factorization is a fundamental technique in machine learning that is applicable to collaborative filtering, information retrieval and many other areas. In collaborative filtering and many other tasks, the objective is to fill in missing elements of a sparse data matrix. One of the biggest challenges in this case is filling in a column or row of the matrix with very few observations. In this paper we introduce a Bayesian matrix factorization model that performs regression against side information known about the data in addition to the observations. The side information helps by adding observed entries to the factored matrices. We also introduce a nonparametric mixture model for the prior of the rows and columns of the factored matrices that gives a different regularization for each latent class. Besides providing a richer prior, the posterior distribution of mixture assignments reveals the latent classes. Using Gibbs sampling for inference, we apply our model to the Netflix Prize problem of predicting movie ratings given an incomplete user-movie ratings matrix. Incorporating rating information with gathered metadata information, our Bayesian approach outperforms other matrix factorization techniques even when using fewer dimensions.

Methods for discovering causal knowledge from observational data have been a persistent topic of AI research for several decades. Essentially all of this work focuses on knowledge representations for propositional domains. In this paper, we present several key algorithmic and theoretical innovations that extend causal discovery to relational domains. We provide strong evidence that effective learning of causal models is enhanced by relational representations. We present an algorithm, relational PC, that learns causal dependencies in a state-of-the-art relational representation, and we identify the key representational and algorithmic innovations that make the algorithm possible. Finally, we prove the algorithm's theoretical correctness and demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic and real data sets.

Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is one of the most popular data clustering methods which can be viewed as a linear combination of different Gaussian components. In GMM, each cluster obeys Gaussian distribution and the task of clustering is to group observations into different components through estimating each cluster's own parameters. The Expectation-Maximization algorithm is always involved in such estimation problem. However, many previous studies have shown naturally occurring data may reside on or close to an underlying submanifold. In this paper, we consider the case where the probability distribution is supported on a submanifold of the ambient space. We take into account the smoothness of the conditional probability distribution along the geodesics of data manifold. That is, if two observations are close in intrinsic geometry, their distributions over different Gaussian components are similar. Simply speaking, we introduce a novel method based on manifold structure for data clustering, called Locally Consistent Gaussian Mixture Model (LCGMM). Specifically, we construct a nearest neighbor graph and adopt Kullback-Leibler Divergence as the distance measurement to regularize the objective function of GMM. Experiments on several data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of such regularization.

We introduce a new discriminative piecewise linear model for classification. A two-step method is developed to construct the model. In the first step, we sample some boundary points that lie between positive and negative data, as well as corresponding directions from negative data to positive data. The sampling result gives a discriminative nonparametric decision surface, which preserves enough information to correctly classify all training data. To simplify this surface, in the second step we propose a nonparametric approach for linear surface segmentation using Dirichlet process mixtures. The final result is a piecewise linear model, in which the number of linear surface pieces is automatically determined by the Bayesian inference according to data. Experiments on both synthetic and real data verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.