Distributions over rankings are used to model data in various settings such as preference analysis and political elections. The factorial size of the space of rankings, however, typically forces one to make structural assumptions, such as smoothness, sparsity, or probabilistic independence about these underlying distributions. We approach the modeling problem from the computational principle that one should make structural assumptions which allow for efficient calculation of typical probabilistic queries. For ranking models, "typical" queries predominantly take the form of partial ranking queries (e.g., given a user's top-k favorite movies, what are his preferences over remaining movies?). In this paper, we argue that riffled independence factorizations proposed in recent literature [7, 8] are a natural structural assumption for ranking distributions, allowing for particularly efficient processing of partial ranking queries.

Conditional independence testing is an important problem, especially in Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Due to the curse of dimensionality, testing for conditional independence of continuous variables is particularly challenging. We propose a Kernel-based Conditional Independence test (KCI-test), by constructing an appropriate test statistic and deriving its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of conditional independence. The proposed method is computationally efficient and easy to implement. Experimental results show that it outperforms other methods, especially when the conditioning set is large or the sample size is not very large, in which case other methods encounter difficulties.

Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors. PAC-Bayesian methods overcome this problem by providing bounds that hold regardless of the correctness of the prior distribution. This paper introduces the first PAC-Bayesian bound for the batch reinforcement learning problem with function approximation. We show how this bound can be used to perform model-selection in a transfer learning scenario. Our empirical results confirm that PAC-Bayesian policy evaluation is able to leverage prior distributions when they are informative and, unlike standard Bayesian RL approaches, ignore them when they are misleading.

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler. Our approach is based on the idea of uniformization, and sets up a Markov chain over paths by sampling a finite set of virtual jump times and then running a standard hidden Markov model forward filtering-backward sampling algorithm over states at the set of extant and virtual jump times. We demonstrate significant computational benefits over a state-of-the-art Gibbs sampler on a number of continuous time Bayesian networks.

We show that the log-likelihood of several probabilistic graphical models is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the lp-norm of the parameters. We discuss several implications of Lipschitz parametrization. We present an upper bound of the Kullback-Leibler divergence that allows understanding methods that penalize the lp-norm of differences of parameters as the minimization of that upper bound. The expected log-likelihood is lower bounded by the negative lp-norm, which allows understanding the generalization ability of probabilistic models. The exponential of the negative lp-norm is involved in the lower bound of the Bayes error rate, which shows that it is reasonable to use parameters as features in algorithms that rely on metric spaces (e.g. classification, dimensionality reduction, clustering). Our results do not rely on specific algorithms for learning the structure or parameters. We show preliminary results for activity recognition and temporal segmentation.

Probabilistic inference in graphical models is the task of computing marginal and conditional densities of interest from a factorized representation of a joint probability distribution. Inference algorithms such as variable elimination and belief propagation take advantage of constraints embedded in this factorization to compute such densities efficiently. In this paper, we propose an algorithm which computes interventional distributions in latent variable causal models represented by acyclic directed mixed graphs(ADMGs). To compute these distributions efficiently, we take advantage of a recursive factorization which generalizes the usual Markov factorization for DAGs and the more recent factorization for ADMGs. Our algorithm can be viewed as a generalization of variable elimination to the mixed graph case. We show our algorithm is exponential in the mixed graph generalization of treewidth.

Standard maximum likelihood estimation cannot be applied to discrete energy-based models in the general case because the computation of exact model probabilities is intractable. Recent research has seen the proposal of several new estimators designed specifically to overcome this intractability, but virtually nothing is known about their theoretical properties. In this paper, we present a generalized estimator that unifies many of the classical and recently proposed estimators. We use results from the standard asymptotic theory for M-estimators to derive a generic expression for the asymptotic covariance matrix of our generalized estimator. We apply these results to study the relative statistical efficiency of classical pseudolikelihood and the recently-proposed ratio matching estimator.

Given a set of experiments in which varying subsets of observed variables are subject to intervention, we consider the problem of identifiability of causal models exhibiting latent confounding. While identifiability is trivial when each experiment intervenes on a large number of variables, the situation is more complicated when only one or a few variables are subject to intervention per experiment. For linear causal models with latent variables Hyttinen et al. (2010) gave precise conditions for when such data are sufficient to identify the full model. While their result cannot be extended to discrete-valued variables with arbitrary cause-effect relationships, we show that a similar result can be obtained for the class of causal models whose conditional probability distributions are restricted to a `noisy-OR' parameterization. We further show that identification is preserved under an extension of the model that allows for negative influences, and present learning algorithms that we test for accuracy, scalability and robustness.

We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating posterior probabilities of structural features in Bayesian networks. The method draws samples from the posterior distribution of partial orders on the nodes; for each sampled partial order, the conditional probabilities of interest are computed exactly. We give both analytical and empirical results that suggest the superiority of the new method compared to previous methods, which sample either directed acyclic graphs or linear orders on the nodes.

Structure learning of Gaussian graphical models is an extensively studied problem in the classical multivariate setting where the sample size n is larger than the number of random variables p, as well as in the more challenging setting when p>>n. However, analogous approaches for learning the structure of graphical models with mixed discrete and continuous variables when p>>n remain largely unexplored. Here we describe a statistical learning procedure for this problem based on limited-order correlations and assess its performance with synthetic and real data.