INCE the appearance of the seminal paper [1], NMF has become a popular data decomposition technique due to succesful applications in a still growing number of fields where data are nonnegative, such as pixel intensities in computer vision, amplitude spectra in audio signal analysis and EEG signal analysis, term counts in document clustering problems, and item ratings in collaborative filtering. NMF aims at decompositions, where, and are all nonnegative matrices. Throughout this paper will be regarded as a collection of data samples organized columnwise, as a dictionary of features organized columnwise, and as matrix of coefficients when is projected onto the dictionary. Under assumptions of linearity and nonnegativity, when underlying dimensionality is lower than dimensionality of the original space of the data, dimensionality reduction of the data can effectively be achieved this way. Although the decomposition is nonunique in general, NMF is able to produce strictly additive decompositions perceived as part-based by adding additional bias in the model [1], [2]. To this end, different sparsity promoting regularizers have been proposed for divergence-based NMF [3]. Also, to include higher order data descriptions, many other variants have been developed, e.g.

There is a growing interest in intelligent assistants for a variety of applications from sorting email to helping people with disabilities to do their daily chores. In this paper, we formulate the problem of intelligent assistance in a decision-theoretic framework, and present both theoretical and empirical results. We first introduce a class of POMDPs called hidden-goal MDPs (HGMDPs), which formalizes the problem of interactively assisting an agent whose goal is hidden and whose actions are observable. In spite of its restricted nature, we show that optimal action selection for HGMDPs is PSPACE-complete even for deterministic dynamics. We then introduce a more restricted model called helper action MDPs (HAMDPs), which are sufficient for modeling many real-world problems. We show classes of HAMDPs for which efficient algorithms are possible. More interestingly, for general HAMDPs we show that a simple myopic policy achieves a near optimal regret, compared to an oracle assistant that knows the agent's goal. We then introduce more sophisticated versions of this policy for the general case of HGMDPs that we combine with a novel approach for quickly learning about the agent being assisted. We evaluate our approach in two game-like computer environments where human subjects perform tasks, and in a real-world domain of providing assistance during folder navigation in a computer desktop environment. The results show that in all three domains the framework results in an assistant that substantially reduces user effort with only modest computation.

We develop a Bayesian Poisson matrix factorization model for forming recommendations from sparse user behavior data. These data are large user/item matrices where each user has provided feedback on only a small subset of items, either explicitly (e.g., through star ratings) or implicitly (e.g., through views or purchases). In contrast to traditional matrix factorization approaches, Poisson factorization implicitly models each user's limited attention to consume items. Moreover, because of the mathematical form of the Poisson likelihood, the model needs only to explicitly consider the observed entries in the matrix, leading to both scalable computation and good predictive performance. We develop a variational inference algorithm for approximate posterior inference that scales up to massive data sets. This is an efficient algorithm that iterates over the observed entries and adjusts an approximate posterior over the user/item representations. We apply our method to large real-world user data containing users rating movies, users listening to songs, and users reading scientific papers. In all these settings, Bayesian Poisson factorization outperforms state-of-the-art matrix factorization methods.

The trimming scheme with a prefixed cutoff portion is known as a method of improving the robustness of statistical models such as multivariate Gaussian mixture models (MG- MMs) in small scale tests by alleviating the impacts of outliers. However, when this method is applied to real- world data, such as noisy speech processing, it is hard to know the optimal cut-off portion to remove the outliers and sometimes removes useful data samples as well. In this paper, we propose a new method based on measuring the dispersion degree (DD) of the training data to avoid this problem, so as to realise automatic robust estimation for MGMMs. The DD model is studied by using two different measures. For each one, we theoretically prove that the DD of the data samples in a context of MGMMs approximately obeys a specific (chi or chi-square) distribution. The proposed method is evaluated on a real-world application with a moderately-sized speaker recognition task. Experiments show that the proposed method can significantly improve the robustness of the conventional training method of GMMs for speaker recognition.

We consider learning the possible causal direction of two observed variables in the presence of latent confounding variables. Several existing methods have been shown to consistently estimate causal direction assuming linear or some type of nonlinear relationship and no latent confounders. However, the estimation results could be distorted if either assumption is actually violated. In this paper, we first propose a new linear non-Gaussian acyclic structural equation model with individual-specific effects that allows latent confounders to be considered. We then propose an empirical Bayesian approach for estimating possible causal direction using the new model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method using artificial and real-world data.

Time series of counts arise in a variety of forecasting applications, for which traditional models are generally inappropriate. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian formulation applicable to count time series that can easily account for explanatory variables and share statistical strength across groups of related time series. We derive an efficient approximate inference technique, and illustrate its performance on a number of datasets from supply chain planning.

Social network analysis (SNA), which is a research field describing and modeling the social connection of a certain group of people, is popular among network services. Our topic words analysis project is a SNA method to visualize the topic words among emails from Obama.com to accounts registered in Columbus, Ohio. Based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model, a popular topic model of SNA, our project characterizes the preference of senders for target group of receptors. Gibbs sampling is used to estimate topic and word distribution. Our training and testing data are emails from the carbon-free server Datagreening.com. We use parallel computing tool BashReduce for word processing and generate related words under each latent topic to discovers typical information of political news sending specially to local Columbus receptors. Running on two instances using paralleling tool BashReduce, our project contributes almost 30% speedup processing the raw contents, comparing with processing contents on one instance locally. Also, the experimental result shows that the LDA model applied in our project provides precision rate 53.96% higher than TF-IDF model finding target words, on the condition that appropriate size of topic words list is selected.

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is the state of the art approach for overcoming model uncertainty. Yet, especially on small data sets, the results yielded by BMA might be sensitive to the prior over the models. Credal Model Averaging (CMA) addresses this problem by substituting the single prior over the models by a set of priors (credal set). Such approach solves the problem of how to choose the prior over the models and automates sensitivity analysis. We discuss various CMA algorithms for building an ensemble of logistic regressors characterized by different sets of covariates. We show how CMA can be appropriately tuned to the case in which one is prior-ignorant and to the case in which instead domain knowledge is available. CMA detects prior-dependent instances, namely instances in which a different class is more probable depending on the prior over the models. On such instances CMA suspends the judgment, returning multiple classes. We thoroughly compare different BMA and CMA variants on a real case study, predicting presence of Alpine marmot burrows in an Alpine valley. We find that BMA is almost a random guesser on the instances recognized as prior-dependent by CMA.

This paper provides new insight into maximizing F1 scores in the context of binary classification and also in the context of multilabel classification. The harmonic mean of precision and recall, F1 score is widely used to measure the success of a binary classifier when one class is rare. Micro average, macro average, and per instance average F1 scores are used in multilabel classification. For any classifier that produces a real-valued output, we derive the relationship between the best achievable F1 score and the decision-making threshold that achieves this optimum. As a special case, if the classifier outputs are well-calibrated conditional probabilities, then the optimal threshold is half the optimal F1 score. As another special case, if the classifier is completely uninformative, then the optimal behavior is to classify all examples as positive. Since the actual prevalence of positive examples typically is low, this behavior can be considered undesirable. As a case study, we discuss the results, which can be surprising, of applying this procedure when predicting 26,853 labels for Medline documents.

A standard technique for understanding underlying dependency structures among a set of variables posits a shared conditional probability distribution for the variables measured on individuals within a group. This approach is often referred to as module networks, where individuals are represented by nodes in a network, groups are termed modules, and the focus is on estimating the network structure among modules. However, estimation solely from node-specific variables can lead to spurious dependencies, and unverifiable structural assumptions are often used for regularization. Here, we propose an extended model that leverages direct observations about the network in addition to node-specific variables. By integrating complementary data types, we avoid the need for structural assumptions. We illustrate theoretical and practical significance of the model and develop a reversible-jump MCMC learning procedure for learning modules and model parameters. We demonstrate the method accuracy in predicting modular structures from synthetic data and capability to learn influence structures in twitter data and regulatory modules in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis gene regulatory network.