As a consequence of the strong and usually violated conditional independence assumption (CIA) of naive Bayes (NB) classifier, the performance of NB becomes less and less favorable compared to sophisticated classifiers when the sample size increases. We learn from this phenomenon that when the size of the training data is large, we should either relax the assumption or apply NB to a "reduced" data set, say for example use NB as a local model. The latter approach trades the ignored information for the robustness to the model assumption. In this paper, we consider using NB as a model for locally weighted data. A special weighting function is designed so that if CIA holds for the unweighted data, it also holds for the weighted data. The new method is intuitive and capable of handling class imbalance. It is theoretically more sound than the locally weighted learners of naive Bayes that base classification only on the $k$ nearest neighbors. Empirical study shows that the new method with appropriate choice of parameter outperforms seven existing classifiers of similar nature.

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has wide applications in machine learning, text mining and computer vision. Classical PCA based on a Gaussian noise model is fragile to noise of large magnitude. Laplace noise assumption based PCA methods cannot deal with dense noise effectively. In this paper, we propose Cauchy Principal Component Analysis (Cauchy PCA), a very simple yet effective PCA method which is robust to various types of noise. We utilize Cauchy distribution to model noise and derive Cauchy PCA under the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework with low rank constraint. Our method can robustly estimate the low rank matrix regardless of whether noise is large or small, dense or sparse. We analyze the robustness of Cauchy PCA from a robust statistics view and present an efficient singular value projection optimization method. Experimental results on both simulated data and real applications demonstrate the robustness of Cauchy PCA to various noise patterns.

Machine learning offers novel ways and means to design personalized learning systems wherein each student's educational experience is customized in real time depending on their background, learning goals, and performance to date. SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) is a novel framework for machine learning-based learning analytics, which estimates a learner's knowledge of the concepts underlying a domain, and content analytics, which estimates the relationships among a collection of questions and those concepts. SPARFA jointly learns the associations among the questions and the concepts, learner concept knowledge profiles, and the underlying question difficulties, solely based on the correct/incorrect graded responses of a population of learners to a collection of questions. In this paper, we extend the SPARFA framework significantly to enable: (i) the analysis of graded responses on an ordinal scale (partial credit) rather than a binary scale (correct/incorrect); (ii) the exploitation of tags/labels for questions that partially describe the question{concept associations. The resulting Ordinal SPARFA-Tag framework greatly enhances the interpretability of the estimated concepts. We demonstrate using real educational data that Ordinal SPARFA-Tag outperforms both SPARFA and existing collaborative filtering techniques in predicting missing learner responses.

We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group. We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data, the supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) model. We evaluate our method on two real-world classification problems and two real-world regression problems. Bayesian nonparametric regression models based on the Dirichlet process, such as the Dirichlet process-generalised linear models (DP-GLM) have previously been explored; these models allow flexibility in modelling nonlinear relationships. However, until now, Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) mixtures have not seen significant use in supervised problems with grouped data since a straightforward application of the HDP on the grouped data results in learnt clusters that are not predictive of the responses. The sHDP solves this problem by allowing for clusters to be learnt jointly from the group structure and from the label assigned to each group.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a workhorse of probabilistic modeling and inference, but are difficult to debug, and are prone to silent failure if implemented naively. We outline several strategies for testing the correctness of MCMC algorithms. Specifically, we advocate writing code in a modular way, where conditional probability calculations are kept separate from the logic of the sampler. We discuss strategies for both unit testing and integration testing. As a running example, we show how a Python implementation of Gibbs sampling for a mixture of Gaussians model can be tested.

This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability.

Bayesian methods suffer from the problem of how to specify prior beliefs. One interesting idea is to consider worst-case priors. This requires solving a stochastic zero-sum game. In this paper, we extend well-known results from bandit theory in order to discover minimax-Bayes policies and discuss when they are practical.

We propose a Bayesian framework of Gaussian process in order to extend Fisher's discriminant to classify functional data such as spectra and images. The probability structure for our extended Fisher's discriminant is explicitly formulated, and we utilize the smoothness assumptions of functional data as prior probabilities. Existing methods which directly employ the smoothness assumption of functional data can be shown as special cases within this framework given corresponding priors while their estimates of the unknowns are one-step approximations to the proposed MAP estimates. Empirical results on various simulation studies and different real applications show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the other Fisher's discriminant methods for functional data.

In many domains, scientists build complex simulators of natural phenomena that encode their hypotheses about the underlying processes. These simulators can be deterministic or stochastic, fast or slow, constrained or unconstrained, and so on. Optimizing the simulators with respect to a set of parameter values is common practice, resulting in a single parameter setting that minimizes an objective subject to constraints. We propose a post optimization posterior analysis that computes and visualizes all the models that can generate equally good or better simulation results, subject to constraints. These optimization posteriors are desirable for a number of reasons among which easy interpretability, automatic parameter sensitivity and correlation analysis and posterior predictive analysis. We develop a new sampling framework based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) with one-sided kernels. In collaboration with two groups of scientists we applied POPE to two important biological simulators: a fast and stochastic simulator of stem-cell cycling and a slow and deterministic simulator of tumor growth patterns.

Within the Kolmogorov theory of probability, Bayes' rule allows one to perform statistical inference by relating conditional probabilities to unconditional probabilities. As we show here, however, there is a continuous set of alternative inference rules that yield the same results, and that may have computational or practical advantages for certain problems. We formulate generalized axioms for probability theory, according to which the reverse conditional probability distribution P(B|A) is not specified by the forward conditional probability distribution P(A|B) and the marginals P(A) and P(B). Thus, in order to perform statistical inference, one must specify an additional "inference axiom," which relates P(B|A) to P(A|B), P(A), and P(B). We show that when Bayes' rule is chosen as the inference axiom, the axioms are equivalent to the classical Kolmogorov axioms. We then derive consistency conditions on the inference axiom, and thereby characterize the set of all possible rules for inference. The set of "first-order" inference axioms, defined as the set of axioms in which P(B|A) depends on the first power of P(A|B), is found to be a 1-simplex, with Bayes' rule at one of the extreme points. The other extreme point, the "inversion rule," is studied in depth.