In this work we present a review of the state of the art of information theoretic feature selection methods. The concepts of feature relevance, redundance and complementarity (synergy) are clearly defined, as well as Markov blanket. The problem of optimal feature selection is defined. A unifying theoretical framework is described, which can retrofit successful heuristic criteria, indicating the approximations made by each method. A number of open problems in the field are presented.

Deep dynamic generative models are developed to learn sequential dependencies in time-series data. The multi-layered model is designed by constructing a hierarchy of temporal sigmoid belief networks (TSBNs), defined as a sequential stack of sigmoid belief networks (SBNs). Each SBN has a contextual hidden state, inherited from the previous SBNs in the sequence, and is used to regulate its hidden bias. Scalable learning and inference algorithms are derived by introducing a recognition model that yields fast sampling from the variational posterior. This recognition model is trained jointly with the generative model, by maximizing its variational lower bound on the log-likelihood. Experimental results on bouncing balls, polyphonic music, motion capture, and text streams show that the proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance, and has the capacity to synthesize various sequences.

We consider the problem of group testing with sum observations and noiseless answers, in which we aim to locate multiple objects by querying the number of objects in each of a sequence of chosen sets. We study a probabilistic setting with entropy loss, in which we assume a joint Bayesian prior density on the locations of the objects and seek to choose the sets queried to minimize the expected entropy of the Bayesian posterior distribution after a fixed number of questions. We present a new non-adaptive policy, called the dyadic policy, show it is optimal among non-adaptive policies, and is within a factor of two of optimal among adaptive policies. This policy is quick to compute, its nonadaptive nature makes it easy to parallelize, and our bounds show it performs well even when compared with adaptive policies. We also study an adaptive greedy policy, which maximizes the one-step expected reduction in entropy, and show that it performs at least as well as the dyadic policy, offering greater query efficiency but reduced parallelism. Numerical experiments demonstrate that both procedures outperform a divide-and-conquer benchmark policy from the literature, called sequential bifurcation, and show how these procedures may be applied in a stylized computer vision problem.

We propose a Conditional Density Filtering (C-DF) algorithm for efficient online Bayesian inference. C-DF adapts MCMC sampling to the online setting, sampling from approximations to conditional posterior distributions obtained by propagating surrogate conditional sufficient statistics (a function of data and parameter estimates) as new data arrive. These quantities eliminate the need to store or process the entire dataset simultaneously and offer a number of desirable features. Often, these include a reduction in memory requirements and runtime and improved mixing, along with state-of-the-art parameter inference and prediction. These improvements are demonstrated through several illustrative examples including an application to high dimensional compressed regression. Finally, we show that C-DF samples converge to the target posterior distribution asymptotically as sampling proceeds and more data arrives.

In this paper we develop a statistical theory and an implementation of deep learning models. We show that an elegant variable splitting scheme for the alternating direction method of multipliers optimises a deep learning objective. We allow for non-smooth non-convex regularisation penalties to induce sparsity in parameter weights. We provide a link between traditional shallow layer statistical models such as principal component and sliced inverse regression and deep layer models. We also define the degrees of freedom of a deep learning predictor and a predictive MSE criteria to perform model selection for comparing architecture designs. We focus on deep multiclass logistic learning although our methods apply more generally. Our results suggest an interesting and previously under-exploited relationship between deep learning and proximal splitting techniques. To illustrate our methodology, we provide a multi-class logit classification analysis of Fisher's Iris data where we illustrate the convergence of our algorithm. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

This paper covers the two approaches for sentiment analysis: i) lexicon based method; ii) machine learning method. We describe several techniques to implement these approaches and discuss how they can be adopted for sentiment classification of Twitter messages. We present a comparative study of different lexicon combinations and show that enhancing sentiment lexicons with emoticons, abbreviations and social-media slang expressions increases the accuracy of lexicon-based classification for Twitter. We discuss the importance of feature generation and feature selection processes for machine learning sentiment classification. To quantify the performance of the main sentiment analysis methods over Twitter we run these algorithms on a benchmark Twitter dataset from the SemEval-2013 competition, task 2-B. The results show that machine learning method based on SVM and Naive Bayes classifiers outperforms the lexicon method. We present a new ensemble method that uses a lexicon based sentiment score as input feature for the machine learning approach. The combined method proved to produce more precise classifications. We also show that employing a cost-sensitive classifier for highly unbalanced datasets yields an improvement of sentiment classification performance up to 7%.

Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions. Here, we use an ensemble of decadal climate predictions to demonstrate the ability of sequential learning algorithms (SLAs) to reduce the forecast errors and reduce the uncertainties. Three different SLAs are considered, and their performances are compared with those of an equally weighted ensemble, a linear regression and the climatology. Predictions of four different variables--the surface temperature, the zonal and meridional wind, and pressure--are considered. The spatial distributions of the performances are presented, and the statistical significance of the improvements achieved by the SLAs is tested. Based on the performances of the SLAs, we propose one to be highly suitable for the improvement of decadal climate predictions.

Classification is an important tool with many useful applications. Among the many classification methods, Fisher's Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) is a traditional model-based approach which makes use of the covariance information. However, in the high-dimensional, low-sample size setting, LDA cannot be directly deployed because the sample covariance is not invertible. While there are modern methods designed to deal with high-dimensional data, they may not fully use the covariance information as LDA does. Hence in some situations, it is still desirable to use a model-based method such as LDA for classification. This article exploits the potential of LDA in more complicated data settings. In many real applications, it is costly to manually place labels on observations; hence it is often that only a small portion of labeled data is available while a large number of observations are left without a label. It is a great challenge to obtain good classification performance through the labeled data alone, especially when the dimension is greater than the size of the labeled data. In order to overcome this issue, we propose a semi-supervised sparse LDA classifier to take advantage of the seemingly useless unlabeled data. They provide additional information which helps to boost the classification performance in some situations. A direct estimation method is used to reconstruct LDA and achieve the sparsity; meanwhile we employ the difference-convex algorithm to handle the non-convex loss function associated with the unlabeled data. Theoretical properties of the proposed classifier are studied. Our simulated examples help to understand when and how the information extracted from the unlabeled data can be useful. A real data example further illustrates the usefulness of the proposed method.

Gathering the most information by picking the least amount of data is a common task in experimental design or when exploring an unknown environment in reinforcement learning and robotics. A widely used measure for quantifying the information contained in some distribution of interest is its entropy. Greedily minimizing the expected entropy is therefore a standard method for choosing samples in order to gain strong beliefs about the underlying random variables. We show that this approach is prone to temporally getting stuck in local optima corresponding to wrongly biased beliefs. We suggest instead maximizing the expected cross entropy between old and new belief, which aims at challenging refutable beliefs and thereby avoids these local optima. We show that both criteria are closely related and that their difference can be traced back to the asymmetry of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. In illustrative examples as well as simulated and real-world experiments we demonstrate the advantage of cross entropy over simple entropy for practical applications.

Models for recommender systems use latent factors to explain the preferences and behaviors of users with respect to a set of items (e.g., movies, books, academic papers). Typically, the latent factors are assumed to be static and, given these factors, the observed preferences and behaviors of users are assumed to be generated without order. These assumptions limit the explorative and predictive capabilities of such models, since users' interests and item popularity may evolve over time. To address this, we propose dPF, a dynamic matrix factorization model based on the recent Poisson factorization model for recommendations. dPF models the time evolving latent factors with a Kalman filter and the actions with Poisson distributions. We derive a scalable variational inference algorithm to infer the latent factors. Finally, we demonstrate dPF on 10 years of user click data from arXiv.org, one of the largest repository of scientific papers and a formidable source of information about the behavior of scientists. Empirically we show performance improvement over both static and, more recently proposed, dynamic recommendation models. We also provide a thorough exploration of the inferred posteriors over the latent variables.