We show that the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate of models derived from Luce's choice axiom (e.g., the Plackett-Luce model) can be expressed as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. This conveys insight into several recently proposed spectral inference algorithms. We take advantage of this perspective and formulate a new spectral algorithm that is significantly more accurate than previous ones for the Plackett--Luce model. With a simple adaptation, this algorithm can be used iteratively, producing a sequence of estimates that converges to the ML estimate. The ML version runs faster than competing approaches on a benchmark of five datasets. Our algorithms are easy to implement, making them relevant for practitioners at large.

Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Existing algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume that the system and measurement timescales are approximately equal. In many scientific domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes. Moreover, the size of the mismatch between timescales is often unknown. This paper provides three distinct causal structure learning algorithms, all of which discover all dynamic graphs that could explain the observed measurement data as arising from undersampling at some rate. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure without assuming any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales; they are thus rate-agnostic. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations. The results provide insight into the challenge of undersampling.

This paper concerns the introduction of a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for posterior sampling in Bayesian nonparametric mixture models with priors that belong to the general Poisson-Kingman class. We present a novel and compact way of representing the infinite dimensional component of the model such that while explicitly representing this infinite component it has less memory and storage requirements than previous MCMC schemes. We describe comparative simulation results demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed MCMC algorithm against existing marginal and conditional MCMC samplers.

Tractable learning aims to learn probabilistic models where inference is guaranteed to be efficient. However, the particular class of queries that is tractable depends on the model and underlying representation. Usually this class is MPE or conditional probabilities $\Pr(\xs|\ys)$ for joint assignments~$\xs,\ys$. We propose a tractable learner that guarantees efficient inference for a broader class of queries. It simultaneously learns a Markov network and its tractable circuit representation, in order to guarantee and measure tractability. Our approach differs from earlier work by using Sentential Decision Diagrams (SDD) as the tractable language instead of Arithmetic Circuits (AC). SDDs have desirable properties, which more general representations such as ACs lack, that enable basic primitives for Boolean circuit compilation. This allows us to support a broader class of complex probability queries, including counting, threshold, and parity, in polytime.

In a variety of problems originating in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, the loss function is defined by an expectation over a collection of random variables, which might be part of a probabilistic model or the external world. Estimating the gradient of this loss function, using samples, lies at the core of gradient-based learning algorithms for these problems. We introduce the formalism of stochastic computation graphs--directed acyclic graphs that include both deterministic functions and conditional probability distributions and describe how to easily and automatically derive an unbiased estimator of the loss function's gradient. The resulting algorithm for computing the gradient estimator is a simple modification of the standard backpropagation algorithm. The generic scheme we propose unifies estimators derived in variety of prior work, along with variance-reduction techniques therein. It could assist researchers in developing intricate models involving a combination of stochastic and deterministic operations, enabling, for example, attention, memory, and control actions.

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an “on-the-job” setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction when confident. As the model improves over time, the reliance on crowdsourcing queries decreases. We cast our setting as a stochastic game based on Bayesian decision theory, which allows us to balance latency, cost, and accuracy objectives in a principled way. Computing the optimal policy is intractable, so we develop an approximation based on Monte Carlo Tree Search. We tested our approach on three datasets-- named-entity recognition, sentiment classification, and image classification. On the NER task we obtained more than an order of magnitude reduction in cost compared to full human annotation, while boosting performance relative to the expert provided labels. We also achieve a 8% F1 improvement over having a single human label the whole set, and a 28% F1 improvement over online learning.

We propose a new variational inference method based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) proximal term. We make two contributions towards improving efficiency of variational inference. Firstly, we derive a KL proximal-point algorithm and show its equivalence to gradient descent with natural gradient in stochastic variational inference. Secondly, we use the proximal framework to derive efficient variational algorithms for non-conjugate models. We propose a splitting procedure to separate non-conjugate terms from conjugate ones. We then linearize the non-conjugate terms and show that the resulting subproblem admits a closed-form solution. Overall, our approach converts a non-conjugate model to subproblems that involve inference in well-known conjugate models. We apply our method to many models and derive generalizations for non-conjugate exponential family. Applications to real-world datasets show that our proposed algorithms are easy to implement, fast to converge, perform well, and reduce computations.

Consider the binary classification problem of predicting a target variable Y from a discrete feature vector X = (X1,...,Xd). When the probability distribution P(X,Y) is known, the optimal classifier, leading to the minimum misclassification rate, is given by the Maximum A-posteriori Probability (MAP) decision rule. However, in practice, estimating the complete joint distribution P(X,Y) is computationally and statistically impossible for large values of d. Therefore, an alternative approach is to first estimate some low order marginals of the joint probability distribution P(X,Y) and then design the classifier based on the estimated low order marginals. This approach is also helpful when the complete training data instances are not available due to privacy concerns. In this work, we consider the problem of designing the optimum classifier based on some estimated low order marginals of (X,Y). We prove that for a given set of marginals, the minimum Hirschfeld-Gebelein-R´enyi (HGR) correlation principle introduced in [1] leads to a randomized classification rule which is shown to have a misclassification rate no larger than twice the misclassification rate of the optimal classifier. Then, we show that under a separability condition, the proposed algorithm is equivalent to a randomized linear regression approach which naturally results in a robust feature selection method selecting a subset of features having the maximum worst case HGR correlation with the target variable. Our theoretical upper-bound is similar to the recent Discrete Chebyshev Classifier (DCC) approach [2], while the proposed algorithm has significant computational advantages since it only requires solving a least square optimization problem. Finally, we numerically compare our proposed algorithm with the DCC classifier and show that the proposed algorithm results in better misclassification rate over various UCI data repository datasets.

We present a scalable Bayesian multi-label learning model based on learning low-dimensional label embeddings. Our model assumes that each label vector is generated as a weighted combination of a set of topics (each topic being a distribution over labels), where the combination weights (i.e., the embeddings) for each label vector are conditioned on the observed feature vector. This construction, coupled with a Bernoulli-Poisson link function for each label of the binary label vector, leads to a model with a computational cost that scales in the number of positive labels in the label matrix. This makes the model particularly appealing for real-world multi-label learning problems where the label matrix is usually very massive but highly sparse. Using a data-augmentation strategy leads to full local conjugacy in our model, facilitating simple and very efficient Gibbs sampling, as well as an Expectation Maximization algorithm for inference. Also, predicting the label vector at test time does not require doing an inference for the label embeddings and can be done in closed form. We report results on several benchmark data sets, comparing our model with various state-of-the art methods.

To infer a multilayer representation of high-dimensional count vectors, we propose the Poisson gamma belief network (PGBN) that factorizes each of its layers into the product of a connection weight matrix and the nonnegative real hidden units of the next layer. The PGBN's hidden layers are jointly trained with an upward-downward Gibbs sampler, each iteration of which upward samples Dirichlet distributed connection weight vectors starting from the first layer (bottom data layer), and then downward samples gamma distributed hidden units starting from the top hidden layer. The gamma-negative binomial process combined with a layer-wise training strategy allows the PGBN to infer the width of each layer given a fixed budget on the width of the first layer. The PGBN with a single hidden layer reduces to Poisson factor analysis. Example results on text analysis illustrate interesting relationships between the width of the first layer and the inferred network structure, and demonstrate that the PGBN, whose hidden units are imposed with correlated gamma priors, can add more layers to increase its performance gains over Poisson factor analysis, given the same limit on the width of the first layer.