Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental task in artificial intelligence, with far-reaching implications for decision-making, predictions, and interventions. Despite significant advances, existing methods can be broadly categorized as constraint-based or score-based approaches. Constraint-based methods offer rigorous causal discovery but are often hindered by small sample sizes, while score-based methods provide flexible optimization but typically forgo explicit conditional independence testing. This work explores a third avenue: developing differentiable $d$-separation scores, obtained through a percolation theory using soft logic. This enables the implementation of a new type of causal discovery method: gradient-based optimization of conditional independence constraints. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the robust performance of our approach in low-sample regimes, surpassing traditional constraint-based and score-based baselines on a real-world dataset. Code and data of the proposed method are publicly available at https://github$.$com/PurdueMINDS/DAGPA.

Performative predictions are forecasts which influence the outcomes they aim to predict, undermining the existence of correct forecasts and standard methods of elicitation and estimation. We show that conditioning forecasts on covariates that separate them from the outcome renders the target distribution forecast-invariant, guaranteeing well-posedness of the forecasting problem. However, even under this condition, classical proper scoring rules fail to elicit correct forecasts. We prove a general impossibility result and identify two solutions: (i) in decision-theoretic settings, elicitation of correct and incentive-compatible forecasts is possible if forecasts are separating; (ii) scoring with unbiased estimates of the divergence between the forecast and the induced distribution of the target variable yields correct forecasts. Applying these insights to parameter estimation, conditional forecasts and proper scoring rules enable performatively stable estimation of performatively correct parameters, resolving the issues raised by Perdomo et al. (2020). Our results expose fundamental limits of classical forecast evaluation and offer new tools for reliable and accurate forecasting in performative settings.

Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data. A posterior over latent variables follows by conditioning on observed data and integrating over formal models. This presents a challenging inference problem. We suggest an inference recipe that amounts to generating many formal models from the large language model, performing approximate inference on each, and then doing a weighted average. This is justified and analyzed as a combination of self-normalized importance sampling, MCMC, and importance-weighted variational inference. Experimentally, this produces sensible predictions from only data and an informal problem description, without the need to specify a formal model.

A generalizable reward model is crucial in Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) as it enables correctly evaluating unseen prompt-response pairs. However, existing reward models lack this ability, as they are typically trained by increasing the reward gap between chosen and rejected responses, while overlooking the prompts that the responses are conditioned on. Consequently, when the trained reward model is evaluated on prompt-response pairs that lie outside the data distribution, neglecting the effect of prompts may result in poor generalization of the reward model. To address this issue, we decompose the reward value into two independent components: prompt-free reward and prompt-related reward. Prompt-free reward represents the evaluation that is determined only by responses, while the prompt-related reward reflects the reward that derives from both the prompt and the response. We extract these two components from an information-theoretic perspective, which requires no extra models. Subsequently, we propose a new reward learning algorithm by prioritizing data samples based on their prompt-free reward values. Through toy examples, we demonstrate that the extracted prompt-free and prompt-related rewards effectively characterize two parts of the reward model. Further, standard evaluations show that our method improves both the alignment performance and the generalization capability of the reward model.

Large-scale networked systems, such as traffic, power, and wireless grids, challenge reinforcement-learning agents with both scale and environment shifts. To address these challenges, we propose GSAC (Generalizable and Scalable Actor-Critic), a framework that couples causal representation learning with meta actor-critic learning to achieve both scalability and domain generalization. Each agent first learns a sparse local causal mask that provably identifies the minimal neighborhood variables influencing its dynamics, yielding exponentially tight approximately compact representations (ACRs) of state and domain factors. These ACRs bound the error of truncating value functions to $κ$-hop neighborhoods, enabling efficient learning on graphs. A meta actor-critic then trains a shared policy across multiple source domains while conditioning on the compact domain factors; at test time, a few trajectories suffice to estimate the new domain factor and deploy the adapted policy. We establish finite-sample guarantees on causal recovery, actor-critic convergence, and adaptation gap, and show that GSAC adapts rapidly and significantly outperforms learning-from-scratch and conventional adaptation baselines.

Sample-wise learning curves plot performance versus training set size. They are useful for studying scaling laws and speeding up hyperparameter tuning and model selection. Learning curves are often assumed to be well-behaved: monotone (i.e. improving with more data) and convex. By constructing the Learning Curves Database 1.1 (LCDB 1.1), a large-scale database with high-resolution learning curves including more modern learners (CatBoost, TabNet, RealMLP and TabPFN), we show that learning curves are less often well-behaved than previously thought. Using statistically rigorous methods, we observe significant ill-behavior in approximately 15% of the learning curves, almost twice as much as in previous estimates. We also identify which learners are to blame and show that specific learners are more ill-behaved than others. Additionally, we demonstrate that different feature scalings rarely resolve ill-behavior. We evaluate the impact of ill-behavior on downstream tasks, such as learning curve fitting and model selection, and find it poses significant challenges, underscoring the relevance and potential of LCDB 1.1 as a challenging benchmark for future research.

Randomized Neural Network with Adaptive Forward Regularization for Online Task-free Class Incremental Learning Junda Wang, Minghui Hu, Ning Li, Abdulaziz Al-Ali, Ponnuthurai Nagarat-nam Suganthan To better acclimate OTCIL scenarios, forward knowledge is exploited to reduce regret and deliver efficient decision-making for ensemble Randomized NN learning in long task streams. This framework realizes one-pass incremental updates with less loss and superiority over ridge. Based on the framework, edR VFL-kF algorithm with adjustable forward regularization is derived, effectively avoiding previous replay and catastrophic forgetting. To overcome the intractable tuning and distribution drifting of -kF, we further propose edRVFL-kF-Bayes with ks synchronously self-adapted based on Bayesian learning in non-i.i.d OTCIL streams. Extensive experiments were conducted on image datasets and the results were analyzed from multiple views (including 6 metrics, dynamic behaviors, and ablation tests), revealing the outstanding performance of edRVFL-kF-Bayes and robustness even with a large PTM. Abstract Class incremental learning (CIL) requires an agent to learn distinct tasks consecutively with knowledge retention against forgetting. Problems impeding the practical applications of CIL methods are twofold: (1) non-i.i.d batch streams and no boundary prompts to update, known as the harsher online task-free CIL (OTCIL) scenario; (2) CIL methods suffer from memory loss in learning long task streams, as shown in Figure 1 (a). To achieve efficient decision-making and decrease cumulative regrets during the OTCIL process, a randomized neural network (Randomized NN) with forward regularization (-F) is proposed to resist forgetting and enhance learning performance. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62273230 and 62203302, and the State Scholarship Fund of China Scholarship Council under Grant 202206230182. This paper was submitted to an Elsevier journal in Feb. 2025. Based on this framework, we derive the algorithm of the ensemble deep random vector functional link network (edR VFL) with adjustable forward regularization (-kF), where k mediates the intensity of the intervention. Moreover, to curb unstable penalties caused by non-i.i.d and mitigate intractable tuning of -kF in OTCIL, we improve it to the plug-and-play edR VFL-kF-Bayes, enabling all hard ks in multiple sub-learners to be self-adaptively determined based on Bayesian learning. Experiments were conducted on 2 image datasets including 6 metrics, dynamic performance, ablation tests, and compatibility, which distinctly validates the efficacy of our OTCIL frameworks with -kF-Bayes and -kF styles.

Recent advances in correlation-based sequential recommendation systems have demonstrated substantial success. Specifically, the attention-based model outperforms other RNN-based and Markov chains-based models by capturing both short- and long-term dependencies more effectively. However, solely focusing on item co-occurrences overlooks the underlying motivations behind user behaviors, leading to spurious correlations and potentially inaccurate recommendations. To address this limitation, we present a novel framework that integrates causal attention for sequential recommendation, CausalRec. It incorporates a causal discovery block and a CausalBooster. The causal discovery block learns the causal graph in user behavior sequences, and we provide a theory to guarantee the identifiability of the learned causal graph. The CausalBooster utilizes the discovered causal graph to refine the attention mechanism, prioritizing behaviors with causal significance. Experimental evaluations on real-world datasets indicate that CausalRec outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, with average improvements of 7.21% in Hit Rate (HR) and 8.65% in Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model to incorporate causality through the attention mechanism in sequential recommendation, demonstrating the value of causality in generating more accurate and reliable recommendations.

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are commonly considered *interpretable* within the ML community, as their structure makes the relationship between inputs and outputs relatively understandable. Therefore, it may seem natural to hypothesize that obtaining meaningful explanations for GAMs could be performed efficiently and would not be computationally infeasible. In this work, we challenge this hypothesis by analyzing the *computational complexity* of generating different explanations for various forms of GAMs across multiple contexts. Our analysis reveals a surprisingly diverse landscape of both positive and negative complexity outcomes. Particularly, under standard complexity assumptions such as P!=NP, we establish several key findings: (1) in stark contrast to many other common ML models, the complexity of generating explanations for GAMs is heavily influenced by the structure of the input space; (2) the complexity of explaining GAMs varies significantly with the types of component models used - but interestingly, these differences only emerge under specific input domain settings; (3) significant complexity distinctions appear for obtaining explanations in regression tasks versus classification tasks in GAMs; and (4) expressing complex models like neural networks additively (e.g., as neural additive models) can make them easier to explain, though interestingly, this benefit appears only for certain explanation methods and input domains. Collectively, these results shed light on the feasibility of computing diverse explanations for GAMs, offering a rigorous theoretical picture of the conditions under which such computations are possible or provably hard.

Abstract--Causal relationship discovery has been drawing increasing attention due to its prevalent application. Existing methods rely on human experience, statistical methods, or graphical criteria methods which are error-prone, stuck at the idealized assumption, and rely on a huge amount of data. And there is also a serious data gap in accessing Multivariate time series(MTS) in many areas, adding difficulty in finding their causal relationship. Existing methods are easy to be over-fitting on them. T o fill the gap we mentioned above, in this paper, we propose Shylock, a novel method that can work well in both few-shot and normal MTS to find the causal relationship. Shylock can reduce the number of parameters exponentially by using group dilated convolution and a sharing kernel, but still learn a better representation of variables with time delay. By combing the global constraint and the local constraint, Shylock achieves information sharing among networks to help improve the accuracy. T o evaluate the performance of Shylock, we also design a data generation method to generate MTS with time delay. We evaluate it on commonly used benchmarks and generated datasets. Extensive experiments show that Shylock outperforms two existing state-of-art methods on both few-shot and normal MTS.