We study the inference of a model of dynamic networks in which both communities and links keep memory of previous network states. By considering maximum likelihood inference from single snapshot observations of the network, we show that link persistence makes the inference of communities harder, decreasing the detectability threshold, while community persistence tends to make it easier. We analytically show that communities inferred from single network snapshot can share a maximum overlap with the underlying communities of a specific previous instant in time. This leads to time-lagged inference: the identification of past communities rather than present ones. Finally we compute the time lag and propose a corrected algorithm, the Lagged Snapshot Dynamic (LSD) algorithm, for community detection in dynamic networks. We analytically and numerically characterize the detectability transitions of such algorithm as a function of the memory parameters of the model and we make a comparison with a full dynamic inference.

The standard loss function used to train neural network classifiers, categorical cross-entropy (CCE), seeks to maximize accuracy on the training data; building useful representations is not a necessary byproduct of this objective. In this work, we propose clustering-oriented representation learning (COREL) as an alternative to CCE in the context of a generalized attractive-repulsive loss framework. COREL has the consequence of building latent representations that collectively exhibit the quality of natural clustering within the latent space of the final hidden layer, according to a predefined similarity function. Despite being simple to implement, COREL variants outperform or perform equivalently to CCE in a variety of scenarios, including image and news article classification using both feed-forward and convolutional neural networks. Analysis of the latent spaces created with different similarity functions facilitates insights on the different use cases COREL variants can satisfy, where the Cosine-COREL variant makes a consistently clusterable latent space, while Gaussian-COREL consistently obtains better classification accuracy than CCE.

Sensitivity analysis in probabilistic discrete graphical models is usually conducted by varying one probability value at a time and observing how this affects output probabilities of interest. When one probability is varied then others are proportionally covaried to respect the sum-to-one condition of probability laws. The choice of proportional covariation is justified by a variety of optimality conditions, under which the original and the varied distributions are as close as possible under different measures of closeness. For variations of more than one parameter at a time proportional covariation is justified in some special cases only. In this work, for the large class of discrete statistical models entertaining a regular monomial parametrisation, we demonstrate the optimality of newly defined proportional multi-way schemes with respect to an optimality criterion based on the notion of I-divergence. We demonstrate that there are varying parameters choices for which proportional covariation is not optimal and identify the sub-family of model distributions where the distance between the original distribution and the one where probabilities are covaried proportionally is minimum. This is shown by adopting a new formal, geometric characterization of sensitivity analysis in monomial models, which include a wide array of probabilistic graphical models. We also demonstrate the optimality of proportional covariation for multi-way analyses in Naive Bayes classifiers.

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation is widely used to analyze the properties of molecules and materials. Most practical applications, such as comparison with experimental measurements, designing drug molecules, or optimizing materials, rely on statistical quantities, which may be prohibitively expensive to compute from direct long-time MD simulations. Classical Machine Learning (ML) techniques have already had a profound impact on the field, especially for learning low-dimensional models of the long-time dynamics and for devising more efficient sampling schemes for computing long-time statistics. Novel ML methods have the potential to revolutionize long-timescale MD and to obtain interpretable models. ML concepts such as statistical estimator theory, end-to-end learning, representation learning and active learning are highly interesting for the MD researcher and will help to develop new solutions to hard MD problems. With the aim of better connecting the MD and ML research areas and spawning new research on this interface, we define the learning problems in long-timescale MD, present successful approaches and outline some of the unsolved ML problems in this application field.

For technology (like serious games) that aims to deliver interactive learning, it is important to address relevant mental experiences such as reflective thinking during problem solving. To facilitate research in this direction, we present the weDraw-1 Movement Dataset of body movement sensor data and reflective thinking labels for 26 children solving mathematical problems in unconstrained settings where the body (full or parts) was required to explore these problems. Further, we provide qualitative analysis of behaviours that observers used in identifying reflective thinking moments in these sessions. The body movement cues from our compilation informed features that lead to average F1 score of 0.73 for automatic detection of reflective thinking based on Long Short-Term Memory neural networks. We further obtained 0.79 average F1 score for end-to-end detection of reflective thinking periods, i.e. based on raw sensor data. Finally, the algorithms resulted in 0.64 average F1 score for period subsegments as short as 4 seconds. Overall, our results show the possibility of detecting reflective thinking moments from body movement behaviours of a child exploring mathematical concepts bodily, such as within serious game play.

Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain likelihood ratio with respect to FE's belief state as represented by a probability function on FE's proposition space. Subsequently FE communicates its recently acquired confirmation that a certain evidence proposition is true. Then TOF performs likelihood ratio transfer mediated reasoning thereby revising their own belief state. The logical principles involved in likelihood transfer mediated reasoning are discussed in a setting where probabilistic arithmetic is done within a meadow, and with Adams conditioning placed in a central role.

Programmed by Arthur Samuel, this big data discipline of artificial intelligence replaces the tedious task of trying to understand the problem well enough to be able to write a program, which can take much longer or be virtually impossible. Techopedia defines the discipline of machine learning as "an artificial intelligence (AI) discipline geared toward the technological development of human knowledge. Machine learning allows computers to handle new situations via analysis, self-training, observation and experience. Machine learning facilitates the continuous advancement of computing through exposure to new scenarios, testing and adaptation, while employing pattern and trend detection for improved decisions in subsequent (though not identical) situations." In 1959, IBM employee Arthur Samuel wanted to teach a computer to play checkers. So, he wrote the original program on IBM's first commercial computer, the IBM 701, but he kept winning.

Learning-to-learn or meta-learning leverages data-driven inductive bias to increase the efficiency of learning on a novel task. This approach encounters difficulty when transfer is not mutually beneficial, for instance, when tasks are sufficiently dissimilar or change over time. Here, we use the connection between gradient-based meta-learning and hierarchical Bayes (Grant et al., 2018) to propose a mixture of hierarchical Bayesian models over the parameters of an arbitrary function approximator such as a neural network. Generalizing the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm (Finn et al., 2017), we present a stochastic expectation maximization procedure to jointly estimate parameter initializations for gradient descent as well as a latent assignment of tasks to initializations. This approach better captures the diversity of training tasks as opposed to consolidating inductive biases into a single set of hyperparameters. Our experiments demonstrate better generalization performance on the standard miniImageNet benchmark for 1-shot classification. We further derive a novel and scalable non-parametric variant of our method that captures the evolution of a task distribution over time as demonstrated on a set of few-shot regression tasks.

Binary data matrices can represent many types of data such as social networks, votes or gene expression. In some cases, the analysis of binary matrices can be tackled with nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), where the observed data matrix is approximated by the product of two smaller nonnegative matrices. In this context, probabilistic NMF assumes a generative model where the data is usually Bernoulli-distributed. Often, a link function is used to map the factorization to the $[0,1]$ range, ensuring a valid Bernoulli mean parameter. However, link functions have the potential disadvantage to lead to uninterpretable models. Mean-parameterized NMF, on the contrary, overcomes this problem. We propose a unified framework for Bayesian mean-parameterized nonnegative binary matrix factorization models (NBMF). We analyze three models which correspond to three possible constraints that respect the mean-parametrization without the need for link functions. Furthermore, we derive a novel collapsed Gibbs sampler and a collapsed variational algorithm to infer the posterior distribution of the factors. Next, we extend the proposed models to a nonparametric setting where the number of used latent dimensions is automatically driven by the observed data. We analyze the performance of our NBMF methods in multiple datasets for different tasks such as dictionary learning and prediction of missing data. Experiments show that our methods provide similar or superior results than the state of the art, while automatically detecting the number of relevant components.

Crash prediction is a critical component of road safety analyses. A widely adopted approach to crash prediction is application of regression based techniques. The underlying calibration process is often time-consuming, requiring significant domain knowledge and expertise and cannot be easily automated. This paper introduces a new machine learning (ML) based approach as an alternative to the traditional techniques. The proposed ML model is called regularized deep belief network, which is a deep neural network with two training steps: it is first trained using an unsupervised learning algorithm and then fine-tuned by initializing a Bayesian neural network with the trained weights from the first step. The resulting model is expected to have improved prediction power and reduced need for the time-consuming human intervention. In this paper, we attempt to demonstrate the potential of this new model for crash prediction through two case studies including a collision data set from 800 km stretch of Highway 401 and other highways in Ontario, Canada. Our intention is to show the performance of this ML approach in comparison to various traditional models including negative binomial (NB) model, kernel regression (KR), and Bayesian neural network (Bayesian NN). We also attempt to address other related issues such as effect of training data size and training parameters.