Bayesian bandits using Thompson Sampling have seen increasing success in recent years. Yet existing value models (of rewards) are misspecified on many real-world problem. We demonstrate this on the User Experience Optimization (UXO) problem, providing a novel formulation as a restless, sleeping bandit with unobserved confounders plus optional stopping. Our case studies show how common misspecifications can lead to sub-optimal rewards, and we provide model extensions to address these, along with a scientific model building process practitioners can adopt or adapt to solve their own unique problems. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing the effects of overdispersion on bandit explore/exploit efficacy, tying the common notions of under- and over-confidence to over- and under-exploration, respectively. We also present the first model to exploit cointegration in a restless bandit, demonstrating that finite regret and fast and consistent optional stopping are possible by moving beyond simpler windowing, discounting, and drift models.

Distance weighted discrimination (DWD) is a linear discrimination method that is particularly well-suited for classification tasks with high-dimensional data. The DWD coefficients minimize an intuitive objective function, which can solved very efficiently using state-of-the-art optimization techniques. However, DWD has not yet been cast into a model-based framework for statistical inference. In this article we show that DWD identifies the mode of a proper Bayesian posterior distribution, that results from a particular link function for the class probabilities and a shrinkage-inducing proper prior distribution on the coefficients. We describe a relatively efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to simulate from the true posterior under this Bayesian framework. We show that the posterior is asymptotically normal and derive the mean and covariance matrix of its limiting distribution. Through several simulation studies and an application to breast cancer genomics we demonstrate how the Bayesian approach to DWD can be used to (1) compute well-calibrated posterior class probabilities, (2) assess uncertainty in the DWD coefficients and resulting sample scores, (3) improve power via semi-supervised analysis when not all class labels are available, and (4) automatically determine a penalty tuning parameter within the model-based framework. R code to perform Bayesian DWD is available at https://github.com/lockEF/BayesianDWD .

Approximate Bayesian methods can mitigate overconfidence in ReLU networks. However, far away from the training data, even Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) can still underestimate uncertainty and thus be overconfident. We suggest to fix this by considering an infinite number of ReLU features over the input domain that are never part of the training process and thus remain at prior values. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that this model leads to a tractable Gaussian process (GP) term that can be added to a pre-trained BNN's posterior at test time with negligible cost overhead. The BNN then yields structured uncertainty in the proximity of training data, while the GP prior calibrates uncertainty far away from them. As a key contribution, we prove that the added uncertainty yields cubic predictive variance growth, and thus the ideal uniform (maximum entropy) confidence in multi-class classification far from the training data. Calibrated uncertainty is crucial for safety-critical decision making by neural networks (NNs) (Amodei et al., 2016). Standard training methods of NNs yield point estimates that, even if they are highly accurate, can still be severely overconfident (Guo et al., 2017).

Discriminative deep neural networks (DNNs) do well at classifying input associated with the classes they have been trained on. However, out-of-distribution (OOD) input poses a great challenge to such models and consequently represents a major risk when these models are used in safety-critical systems. In the last two years, extensive research has been performed in the domain of OOD detection. This research has relied mainly on training the model with OOD data or requiring additional computation for OOD detection. Such methods may not be applicable in many real world use cases. In this paper, we propose GLOD -- Gaussian likelihood out of distribution detector -- an extended DNN classifier capable of efficiently detecting OOD samples with no additional runtime overhead and without auxiliary training data. GLOD uses a layer that models the Gaussian density function of the trained classes. The layer outputs are used to estimate a Log-Likelihood Ratio which is employed to detect OOD samples. We evaluate GLOD's detection performance on SVHN, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100.

We introduce a framework for online changepoint detection and simultaneous model learning which is applicable to highly parametrized models, such as deep neural networks. It is based on detecting changepoints across time by sequentially performing generalized likelihood ratio tests that require only evaluations of simple prediction score functions. This procedure makes use of checkpoints, consisting of early versions of the actual model parameters, that allow to detect distributional changes by performing predictions on future data. We define an algorithm that bounds the Type I error in the sequential testing procedure. We demonstrate the efficiency of our method in challenging continual learning applications with unknown task changepoints, and show improved performance compared to online Bayesian changepoint detection.

One of the common obstacles for learning causal models from data is that high-order conditional independence (CI) relationships between random variables are difficult to estimate. Since CI tests with conditioning sets of low order can be performed accurately even for a small number of observations, a reasonable approach to determine casual structures is to base merely on the low-order CIs. Recent research has confirmed that, e.g. in the case of sparse true causal models, structures learned even from zero- and first-order conditional independencies yield good approximations of the models. However, a challenging task here is to provide methods that faithfully explain a given set of low-order CIs. In this paper, we propose an algorithm which, for a given set of conditional independencies of order less or equal to $k$, where $k$ is a small fixed number, computes a faithful graphical representation of the given set. Our results complete and generalize the previous work on learning from pairwise marginal independencies. Moreover, they enable to improve upon the 0-1 graph model which, e.g. is heavily used in the estimation of genome networks.

Fast machine learning-based surrogate models are trained to emulate slow, high-fidelity engineering simulation models to accelerate engineering design tasks. This introduces uncertainty as the surrogate is only an approximation of the original model. Bayesian methods can quantify that uncertainty, and deep learning models exist that follow the Bayesian paradigm. These models, namely Bayesian neural networks and Gaussian process models, enable us to give predictions together with an estimate of the model's uncertainty. As a result we can derive uncertainty-aware surrogate models that can automatically suspect unseen design samples that cause large emulation errors. For these samples, the high-fidelity model can be queried instead. This outlines how the Bayesian paradigm allows us to hybridize fast, but approximate, and slow, but accurate models. In this paper, we train two types of Bayesian models, dropout neural networks and stochastic variational Gaussian Process models, to emulate a complex high dimensional building energy performance simulation problem. The surrogate model processes 35 building design parameters (inputs) to estimate 12 different performance metrics (outputs). We benchmark both approaches, prove their accuracy to be competitive, and show that errors can be reduced by up to 30% when the 10% of samples with the highest uncertainty are transferred to the high-fidelity model.

The variational auto-encoder (VAE) is a deep latent variable model that has two neural networks in an autoencoder-like architecture; one of them parameterizes the model's likelihood. Fitting its parameters via maximum likelihood is challenging since the computation of the likelihood involves an intractable integral over the latent space; thus the VAE is trained instead by maximizing a variational lower bound. Here, we develop a maximum likelihood training scheme for VAEs by introducing unbiased gradient estimators of the log-likelihood. We obtain the unbiased estimators by augmenting the latent space with a set of importance samples, similarly to the importance weighted auto-encoder (IWAE), and then constructing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) coupling procedure on this augmented space. We provide the conditions under which the estimators can be computed in finite time and have finite variance. We demonstrate experimentally that VAEs fitted with unbiased estimators exhibit better predictive performance on three image datasets.

Estimating mutual information between continuous random variables is often intractable and extremely challenging for high-dimensional data. Recent progress has leveraged neural networks to optimize variational lower bounds on mutual information. Although showing promise for this difficult problem, the variational methods have been theoretically and empirically proven to have serious statistical limitations: 1) many methods struggle to produce accurate estimates when the underlying mutual information is either low or high; 2) the resulting estimators may suffer from high variance. Our approach is based on training a classifier that provides the probability that a data sample pair is drawn from the joint distribution rather than from the product of its marginal distributions. Moreover, we establish a direct connection between mutual information and the average log odds estimate produced by the classifier on a test set, leading to a simple and accurate estimator of mutual information. We show theoretically that our method and other variational approaches are equivalent when they achieve their optimum, while our method sidesteps the variational bound. Empirical results demonstrate high accuracy of our approach and the advantages of our estimator in the context of representation learning. Mutual information (MI) measures the information that two random variables share.

We present a method for enhancing the sensitivity of X-ray telescopic observations with imaging polarimeters, with a focus on the gas pixel detectors (GPDs) to be flown on the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE). Our analysis determines photoelectron directions, X-ray absorption points and X-ray energies for 1-9 keV event tracks, with estimates for both the statistical and model (reconstruction) uncertainties. We use a weighted maximum likelihood combination of predictions from a deep ensemble of ResNet convolutional neural networks, trained on Monte Carlo event simulations. We define a figure of merit to compare the polarization bias-variance trade-off in track reconstruction algorithms. For power-law source spectra, our method improves on the current planned IXPE analysis (and previous deep learning approaches), providing ~45% increase in effective exposure times. For individual energies, our method produces 20-30% absolute improvements in modulation factor for simulated 100% polarized events, while keeping residual systematic modulation within 1 sigma of the finite sample minimum. Absorption point location and photon energy estimates are also significantly improved. We have validated our method with sample data from real GPD detectors.