Offered by Duke University. In this Specialization, you will learn to analyze and visualize data in R and create reproducible data analysis reports, demonstrate a conceptual understanding of the unified nature of statistical inference, perform frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference and modeling to understand natural phenomena and make data-based decisions, communicate statistical results correctly, effectively, and in context without relying on statistical jargon, critique data-based claims and evaluated data-based decisions, and wrangle and visualize data with R packages for data analysis. You will produce a portfolio of data analysis projects from the Specialization that demonstrates mastery of statistical data analysis from exploratory analysis to inference to modeling, suitable for applying for statistical analysis or data scientist positions.

The Bayesian paradigm has the potential to solve some of the core issues in modern deep learning, such as poor calibration, data inefficiency, and catastrophic forgetting. However, scaling Bayesian inference to the high-dimensional parameter spaces of deep neural networks requires restrictive approximations. In this paper, we propose performing inference over only a small subset of the model parameters while keeping all others as point estimates. This enables us to use expressive posterior approximations that would otherwise be intractable for the full model. In particular, we develop a practical and scalable Bayesian deep learning method that first trains a point estimate, and then infers a full covariance Gaussian posterior approximation over a subnetwork. We propose a subnetwork selection procedure which aims to optimally preserve posterior uncertainty. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach compared to point-estimated networks and methods that use less expressive posterior approximations over the full network. Deep neural networks (DNNs) still suffer from critical shortcomings that make them unfit for important applications.

We study a decentralized cooperative multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem with $K$ arms and $N$ agents connected over a network. In our model, each arm's reward distribution is same for all agents, and rewards are drawn independently across agents and over time steps. In each round, agents choose an arm to play and subsequently send a message to their neighbors. The goal is to minimize cumulative regret averaged over the entire network. We propose a decentralized Bayesian multi-armed bandit framework that extends single-agent Bayesian bandit algorithms to the decentralized setting. Specifically, we study an information assimilation algorithm that can be combined with existing Bayesian algorithms, and using this, we propose a decentralized Thompson Sampling algorithm and decentralized Bayes-UCB algorithm. We analyze the decentralized Thompson Sampling algorithm under Bernoulli rewards and establish a problem-dependent upper bound on the cumulative regret. We show that regret incurred scales logarithmically over the time horizon with constants that match those of an optimal centralized agent with access to all observations across the network. Our analysis also characterizes the cumulative regret in terms of the network structure. Through extensive numerical studies, we show that our extensions of Thompson Sampling and Bayes-UCB incur lesser cumulative regret than the state-of-art algorithms inspired by the Upper Confidence Bound algorithm. We implement our proposed decentralized Thompson Sampling under gossip protocol, and over time-varying networks, where each communication link has a fixed probability of failure.

Stochastic inverse problems (SIP) address the behavior of a set of objects of the same kind but with variable properties, such as a population of cells. Using a population of mechanistic models from a single parametric family, SIP explains population variability by transferring real-world observations into the latent space of model parameters. Previous research in SIP focused on solving the parameter inference problem for a single population using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Here we extend SIP to address multiple related populations simultaneously. Specifically, we simulate control and treatment populations in experimental protocols by discovering two related latent spaces of model parameters. Instead of taking a Bayesian approach, our two-population SIP is reformulated as the constrained-optimization problem of finding distributions of model parameters. To minimize the divergence between distributions of experimental observations and model outputs, we developed novel deep learning models based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) which have the structure of our underlying constrained-optimization problem. The flexibility of GANs allowed us to build computationally scalable solutions and tackle complex model input parameter inference scenarios, which appear routinely in physics, biophysics, economics and other areas, and which can not be handled with existing methods. Specifically, we demonstrate two scenarios of parameter inference over a control population and a treatment population whose treatment either selectively affects only a subset of model parameters with some uncertainty or has a deterministic effect on all model parameters.

Unlike in the traditional statistical modeling for which a user typically hand-specify a prior, Neural Processes (NPs) implicitly define a broad class of stochastic processes with neural networks. Given a data stream, NP learns a stochastic process that best describes the data. While this "data-driven" way of learning stochastic processes has proven to handle various types of data, NPs still rely on an assumption that uncertainty in stochastic processes is modeled by a single latent variable, which potentially limits the flexibility. To this end, we propose the Boostrapping Neural Process (BNP), a novel extension of the NP family using the bootstrap. The bootstrap is a classical data-driven technique for estimating uncertainty, which allows BNP to learn the stochasticity in NPs without assuming a particular form. We demonstrate the efficacy of BNP on various types of data and its robustness in the presence of model-data mismatch.

As we deploy reinforcement learning agents to solve increasingly challenging problems, methods that allow us to inject prior knowledge about the structure of the world and effective solution strategies becomes increasingly important. In this work we consider how information and architectural constraints can be combined with ideas from the probabilistic modeling literature to learn behavior priors that capture the common movement and interaction patterns that are shared across a set of related tasks or contexts. For example the day-to day behavior of humans comprises distinctive locomotion and manipulation patterns that recur across many different situations and goals. We discuss how such behavior patterns can be captured using probabilistic trajectory models and how these can be integrated effectively into reinforcement learning schemes, e.g.\ to facilitate multi-task and transfer learning. We then extend these ideas to latent variable models and consider a formulation to learn hierarchical priors that capture different aspects of the behavior in reusable modules. We discuss how such latent variable formulations connect to related work on hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) and mutual information and curiosity based objectives, thereby offering an alternative perspective on existing ideas. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by applying it to a range of simulated continuous control domains.

This article reviews meta-learning also known as learning-to-learn which seeks rapid and accurate model adaptation to unseen tasks with applications in highly automated AI, few-shot learning, natural language processing and robotics. Unlike deep learning, meta-learning can be applied to few-shot high-dimensional datasets and considers further improving model generalization to unseen tasks. Deep learning is focused upon in-sample prediction and meta-learning concerns model adaptation for out-of-sample prediction. Meta-learning can continually perform self-improvement to achieve highly autonomous AI. Meta-learning may serve as an additional generalization block complementary for original deep learning model. Meta-learning seeks adaptation of machine learning models to unseen tasks which are vastly different from trained tasks. Meta-learning with coevolution between agent and environment provides solutions for complex tasks unsolvable by training from scratch. Meta-learning methodology covers a wide range of great minds and thoughts. We briefly introduce meta-learning methodologies in the following categories: black-box meta-learning, metric-based meta-learning, layered meta-learning and Bayesian meta-learning framework. Recent applications concentrate upon the integration of meta-learning with other machine learning framework to provide feasible integrated problem solutions. We briefly present recent meta-learning advances and discuss potential future research directions.

We present a novel approach to Bayesian inference and general Bayesian computation that is defined through a recursive partitioning of the sample space. It does not rely on gradients, nor require any problem-specific tuning, and is asymptotically exact for any density function with a bounded domain. The output is an approximation to the whole density function including the normalization constant, via partitions organized in efficient data structures. This allows for evidence estimation, as well as approximate posteriors that allow for fast sampling and fast evaluations of the density. It shows competitive performance to recent state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world problem examples including parameter inference for gravitational-wave physics.

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a method for solving numerical integration problems in a Bayesian manner, which allows users to quantify their uncertainty about the solution. The standard approach to BQ is based on a Gaussian process (GP) approximation of the integrand. As a result, BQ is inherently limited to cases where GP approximations can be done in an efficient manner, thus often prohibiting very high-dimensional or non-smooth target functions. This paper proposes to tackle this issue with a new Bayesian numerical integration algorithm based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) priors, which we call BART-Int. BART priors are easy to tune and well-suited for discontinuous functions. We demonstrate that they also lend themselves naturally to a sequential design setting and that explicit convergence rates can be obtained in a variety of settings. The advantages and disadvantages of this new methodology are highlighted on a set of benchmark tests including the Genz functions, and on a Bayesian survey design problem.

Credit scoring is a rapidly expanding analytical technique used by banks and other financial institutions. Academic studies on credit scoring provide a range of classification techniques used to differentiate between good and bad borrowers. The main contribution of this paper is to introduce a new method for credit scoring based on Gaussian Mixture Models. Our algorithm classifies consumers into groups which are labeled as positive or negative. Labels are estimated according to the probability associated with each class. We apply our model with real world databases from Australia, Japan, and Germany. Numerical results show that not only our model's performance is comparable to others, but also its flexibility avoids over-fitting even in the absence of standard cross validation techniques. The framework developed by this paper can provide a computationally efficient and powerful tool for assessment of consumer default risk in related financial institutions.