Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables statistical inference in complex models whose likelihoods are difficult to calculate but easy to simulate from. ABC constructs a kernel-type approximation to the posterior distribution through an accept/reject mechanism which compares summary statistics of real and simulated data. To obviate the need for summary statistics, we directly compare empirical distributions with a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence estimator obtained via classification. In particular, we blend flexible machine learning classifiers within ABC to automate fake/real data comparisons. We consider the traditional accept/reject kernel as well as an exponential weighting scheme which does not require the ABC acceptance threshold. Our theoretical results show that the rate at which our ABC posterior distributions concentrate around the true parameter depends on the estimation error of the classifier. We derive limiting posterior shape results and find that, with a properly scaled exponential kernel, asymptotic normality holds. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach on simulated examples as well as real data in the context of stock volatility estimation.

Active inference is a state-of-the-art framework for modelling the brain that explains a wide range of mechanisms such as habit formation, dopaminergic discharge and curiosity. However, recent implementations suffer from an exponential (space and time) complexity class when computing the prior over all the possible policies up to the time horizon. Fountas et al. (2020) used Monte Carlo tree search to address this problem, leading to very good results in two different tasks. Additionally, Champion et al. (2021a) proposed a tree search approach based on structure learning. This was enabled by the development of a variational message passing approach to active inference (Champion et al., 2021b), which enables compositional construction of Bayesian networks for active inference. However, this message passing tree search approach, which we call branching-time active inference (BTAI), has never been tested empirically. In this paper, we present an experimental study of the approach (Champion et al., 2021a) in the context of a maze solving agent. In this context, we show that both improved prior preferences and deeper search help mitigate the vulnerability to local minima. Then, we compare BTAI to standard active inference (AI) on a graph navigation task. We show that for small graphs, both BTAI and AI successfully solve the task. For larger graphs, AI exhibits an exponential (space) complexity class, making the approach intractable. However, BTAI explores the space of policies more efficiently, successfully scaling to larger graphs.

In last 2–3 decades lots of technologies and computer languages discovered for the purpose of research, better learning and for more opportunities in Machines and Computing fields. One of the language on those discoveries are Machine Learning. The study of machine learning (ML) is the study of algorithms that develop automatically through different experiences and by accumulating data. Machine Learning is a branch of AI(artificial Intelligence). Artificial intelligence (AI) and computer science have developed machine learning techniques to reproduce how humans learn by using data and algorithms.

We present a novel task that measures how people generalize objects' causal powers based on observing a single (Experiment 1) or a few (Experiment 2) causal interactions between object pairs. We propose a computational modeling framework that can synthesize human-like generalization patterns in our task setting, and sheds light on how people may navigate the compositional space of possible causal functions and categories efficiently. Our modeling framework combines a causal function generator that makes use of agent and recipient objects' features and relations, and a Bayesian non-parametric inference process to govern the degree of similarity-based generalization. Our model has a natural "resource-rational" variant that outperforms a naive Bayesian account in describing participants, in particular reproducing a generalization-order effect and causal asymmetry observed in our behavioral experiments. We argue that this modeling framework provides a computationally plausible mechanism for real world causal generalization.

In this paper, we propose a deterministic variational inference approach and generate low-discrepancy points by minimizing the kernel discrepancy, also known as the Maximum Mean Discrepancy or MMD. Based on the general energetic variational inference framework by Wang et. al. (2021), minimizing the kernel discrepancy is transformed to solving a dynamic ODE system via the explicit Euler scheme. We name the resulting algorithm EVI-MMD and demonstrate it through examples in which the target distribution is fully specified, partially specified up to the normalizing constant, and empirically known in the form of training data. Its performances are satisfactory compared to alternative methods in the applications of distribution approximation, numerical integration, and generative learning. The EVI-MMD algorithm overcomes the bottleneck of the existing MMD-descent algorithms, which are mostly applicable to two-sample problems. Algorithms with more sophisticated structures and potential advantages can be developed under the EVI framework.

A few years ago, at the Princeton Club in Manhattan, I chanced on a memorable chat with the Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker. His spouse, the philosopher Rebecca Goldstein, with whom he was tagging along, had been invited onto a panel to discuss the conflict between religion and science and Einstein's so-called "God letter," which was being auctioned at Christie's. Pinker had recently published Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress. I was eager to pepper him with questions, mainly on religion, rationality, and evolutionary psychology. I remember I wanted Pinker's take on something Harvey Whitehouse, one of the founders of the cognitive science of religion, told me in an interview--that my own little enlightenment, of becoming an atheist in college, was probably mostly a product of merely changing my social milieu. I wasn't so much moved by rational arguments against the ethics and existence of God but by being distanced from my old life and meeting new, non-religious friends. I recall Pinker almost pouncing on that argument, defending reason's power to change our minds. He noted that people especially high in "intellectance," a personality trait now more commonly called "openness to experience," tend to be more curious, intelligent, and willing to entertain new ideas. I still think that Pinker's way of seeing things made more sense of my experience in those heady days. I really was, for the first time, trying my best to think things through, and it was exhilarating. We talked until the event staff shelved the wine, and parted ways at a chilly midtown intersection.

Dataless text classification, i.e., a new paradigm of weakly supervised learning, refers to the task of learning with unlabeled documents and a few predefined representative words of categories, known as seed words. The recent generative dataless methods construct document-specific category priors by using seed word occurrences only, however, such category priors often contain very limited and even noisy supervised signals. To remedy this problem, in this paper we propose a novel formulation of category prior. First, for each document, we consider its label membership degree by not only counting seed word occurrences, but also using a novel prototype scheme, which captures pseudo-nearest neighboring categories. Second, for each label, we consider its frequency prior knowledge of the corpus, which is also a discriminative knowledge for classification. By incorporating the proposed category prior into the previous generative dataless method, we suggest a novel generative dataless method, namely Weakly Supervised Prototype Topic Model (WSPTM). The experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that WSPTM outperforms the existing baseline methods.

False alerts due to misconfigured/ compromised IDS in ICS networks can lead to severe economic and operational damage. To solve this problem, research has focused on leveraging deep learning techniques that help reduce false alerts. However, a shortcoming is that these works often require or implicitly assume the physical and cyber sensors to be trustworthy. Implicit trust of data is a major problem with using artificial intelligence or machine learning for CPS security, because during critical attack detection time they are more at risk, with greater likelihood and impact, of also being compromised. To address this shortcoming, the problem is reframed on how to make good decisions given uncertainty. Then, the decision is detection, and the uncertainty includes whether the data used for ML-based IDS is compromised. Thus, this work presents an approach for reducing false alerts in CPS power systems by dealing uncertainty without the knowledge of prior distribution of alerts. Specifically, an evidence theoretic based approach leveraging Dempster Shafer combination rules are proposed for reducing false alerts. A multi-hypothesis mass function model is designed that leverages probability scores obtained from various supervised-learning classifiers. Using this model, a location-cum-domain based fusion framework is proposed and evaluated with different combination rules, that fuse multiple evidence from inter-domain and intra-domain sensors. The approach is demonstrated in a cyber-physical power system testbed with Man-In-The-Middle attack emulation in a large-scale synthetic electric grid. For evaluating the performance, plausibility, belief, pignistic, etc. metrics as decision functions are considered. To improve the performance, a multi-objective based genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection considering the decision metrics as the fitness function.

Graphs are ubiquitous in many applications, such as social networks, knowledge graphs, smart grids, etc.. Graph neural networks (GNN) are the current state-of-the-art for these applications, and yet remain obscure to humans. Explaining the GNN predictions can add transparency. However, as many graphs are not static but continuously evolving, explaining changes in predictions between two graph snapshots is different but equally important. Prior methods only explain static predictions or generate coarse or irrelevant explanations for dynamic predictions. We define the problem of explaining evolving GNN predictions and propose an axiomatic attribution method to uniquely decompose the change in a prediction to paths on computation graphs. The attribution to many paths involving high-degree nodes is still not interpretable, while simply selecting the top important paths can be suboptimal in approximating the change. We formulate a novel convex optimization problem to optimally select the paths that explain the prediction evolution. Theoretically, we prove that the existing method based on Layer-Relevance-Propagation (LRP) is a special case of the proposed algorithm when an empty graph is compared with. Empirically, on seven graph datasets, with a novel metric designed for evaluating explanations of prediction change, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach over existing methods, including LRP, DeepLIFT, and other path selection methods.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) have been introduced as a method to sample a diverse set of candidates in an active learning context, with a training objective that makes them approximately sample in proportion to a given reward function. In this paper, we show a number of additional theoretical properties of GFlowNets. They can be used to estimate joint probability distributions and the corresponding marginal distributions where some variables are unspecified and, of particular interest, can represent distributions over composite objects like sets and graphs. GFlowNets amortize the work typically done by computationally expensive MCMC methods in a single but trained generative pass. They could also be used to estimate partition functions and free energies, conditional probabilities of supersets (supergraphs) given a subset (subgraph), as well as marginal distributions over all supersets (supergraphs) of a given set (graph). We introduce variations enabling the estimation of entropy and mutual information, sampling from a Pareto frontier, connections to reward-maximizing policies, and extensions to stochastic environments, continuous actions and modular energy functions.