Bayesian Learning


The Mysterious Math of How Cells Determine Their Own Fate

WIRED

In 1891, when the German biologist Hans Driesch split two-cell sea urchin embryos in half, he found that each of the separated cells then gave rise to its own complete, albeit smaller, larva. Somehow, the halves "knew" to change their entire developmental program: At that stage, the blueprint for what they would become had apparently not yet been drawn out, at least not in ink. Original story reprinted with permission from Quanta Magazine, an editorially independent publication of the Simons Foundation whose mission is to enhance public understanding of science by covering research developments and trends in mathematics and the physical and life sciences. Since then, scientists have been trying to understand what goes into making this blueprint, and how instructive it is. It's now known that some form of positional information makes genes variously switch on and off throughout the embryo, giving cells distinct identities based on their location.


How to Improve Political Forecasts - Issue 70: Variables

Nautilus

The 2020 Democratic candidates are out of the gate and the pollsters have the call! Bernie Sanders is leading by two lengths with Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren right behind, but Cory Booker and Beto O'Rourke are coming on fast! The political horse-race season is upon us and I bet I know what you are thinking: "Stop!" Every election we complain about horse-race coverage and every election we stay glued to it all the same. The problem with this kind of coverage is not that it's unimportant.


15 Great Articles about Bayesian Methods and Networks

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This resource is part of a series on specific topics related to data science: regression, clustering, neural networks, deep learning, decision trees, ensembles, correlation, Python, R, Tensorflow, SVM, data reduction, feature selection, experimental design, cross-validation, model fitting, and many more. To keep receiving these articles, sign up on DSC.


Machine Learning Interview Questions and Answers

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Credo systemz are making it a cakewalk for you by providing a list of most probable Machine learning interview questions. These interview questions and answers are framed by a Machine learning Engineer. This set of Machine learning interview questions and answers is the perfect guide for you to learn all the concepts required to clear a Machine learning interview. To get in-depth knowledge on Machine learning, you can enroll for live Machine learning Certification Training by Credo systemz with 24/7 support and lifetime access. In answering this question, try to show you understand of the broad applications... What is bucketing in machine learning?Converting a (usually continuous) feature into multiple binary... What are the advantages of Naive Bayes?In a Naïve Bayes classifier will converge quicker than discriminative... What is inductive machine learning?The inductive machine learning involves the process of learning... What Are The Three Stages To Build The Model In Machine Learning?(a).


A Multi-armed Bandit MCMC, with applications in sampling from doubly intractable posterior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used to sample from complicated distributions, especially to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, MCMC is not directly applicable when facing the doubly intractable problem. In this paper, we discussed and compared two existing solutions -- Pseudo-marginal Monte Carlo and Exchange Algorithm. This paper also proposes a novel algorithm: Multi-armed Bandit MCMC (MABMC), which chooses between two (or more) randomized acceptance ratios in each step. MABMC could be applied directly to incorporate Pseudo-marginal Monte Carlo and Exchange algorithm, with higher average acceptance probability.


Understanding Agent Incentives using Causal Influence Diagrams. Part I: Single Action Settings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Agents are systems that optimize an objective function in an environment. Together, the goal and the environment induce secondary objectives, incentives. Modeling the agent-environment interaction in graphical models called influence diagrams, we can answer two fundamental questions about an agent's incentives directly from the graph: (1) which nodes is the agent incentivized to observe, and (2) which nodes is the agent incentivized to influence? The answers tell us which information and influence points need extra protection. For example, we may want a classifier for job applications to not use the ethnicity of the candidate, and a reinforcement learning agent not to take direct control of its reward mechanism. Different algorithms and training paradigms can lead to different influence diagrams, so our method can be used to identify algorithms with problematic incentives and help in designing algorithms with better incentives.


Markov Networks: Undirected Graphical Models

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This article briefs you about Markov Networks which falls under the family of Undirected Graphical Models (UGM). This article is a follow-up to Bayesian Network, which is a type of Directed Graphical Models. Key Motivation behind these networks is to parameterize the Joint Probability Distribution based on Local Independencies between Random Variables. Generally, Bayesian Network requires to pre-define a directionality to assert an influence of random variable. But there might be cases where interaction between nodes ( or random variables) are symmetric in nature, and we would like to have a model which can represent this symmetricity without directional influence.


Rectangular Bounding Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic partition models divide a multi-dimensional space into a number of rectangular regions, such that the data within each region exhibit certain types of homogeneity. Due to the nature of their partition strategy, existing partition models may create many unnecessary divisions in sparse regions when trying to describe data in dense regions. To avoid this problem we introduce a new parsimonious partition model -- the Rectangular Bounding Process (RBP) -- to efficiently partition multi-dimensional spaces, by employing a bounding strategy to enclose data points within rectangular bounding boxes. Unlike existing approaches, the RBP possesses several attractive theoretical properties that make it a powerful nonparametric partition prior on a hypercube. In particular, the RBP is self-consistent and as such can be directly extended from a finite hypercube to infinite (unbounded) space. We apply the RBP to regression trees and relational models as a flexible partition prior. The experimental results validate the merit of the RBP {in rich yet parsimonious expressiveness} compared to the state-of-the-art methods.


An Introduction to Bayesian Reasoning

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The coefficients are constrained by the prior and end up smaller in the second example. Although the model is not fit here with Bayesian techniques, it has a Bayesian interpretation. The output here does not quite give a distribution over the coefficient (though other packages can), but does give something related: a 95% confidence interval around the coefficient, in addition to its point estimate. By now you may have a taste for Bayesian techniques and what they can do for you, from a few simple examples. Things get more interesting, however, when we see what priors and posteriors can do for a real-world use case. For part 2, please click here.