Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and most commonly by analysis of trends. (Wikipedia)
The vendors who are selling everyday items need to keep their stock up to date so, that no customer returns from their shop empty hand. In this article, we will try to implement a machine learning model which can predict the stock amount for the different products which are sold in different stores. Python libraries make it easy for us to handle the data and perform typical and complex tasks with a single line of code. Now let's load the dataset into the panda's data frame and print its first five rows. Now let's check the size we have calculated is correct or not .
With customer expectations and preferences changing faster than ever, a deep understanding of the customer demand is essential to making the right decisions about marketing spend, sourcing, inventory, production, transportation, staffing, and more. Critical business measures like turnover, capital expenditure, risk evaluation, profit margins, cash flow, and capacity planning are all reliant on accurate demand forecasting, which ultimately can help businesses to estimate the total sales and revenue for a defined future. Typically, demand forecasting includes activities such as supply planning, product manufacturing planning (e.g., sourcing, R&D), and financial planning. The critical aspect of these planning activities is to understand product demands from customers and how to fulfil those demands in the most timely and efficient way. By capturing the variability of future demand through forecasting, businesses can predict customer behaviors more accurately and meet their demands with a higher level of confidence and significantly reduced lead times from order to delivery.
Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. Demand Forecasting is a field of predictive analytics that predicts customer demand based on historical data and other related variables to drive the supply chain decision-making process.
Accurate electricity demand forecasts play a crucial role in sustainable power systems. To enable better decision-making especially for demand flexibility of the end-user, it is necessary to provide not only accurate but also understandable and actionable forecasts. To provide accurate forecasts Global Forecasting Models (GFM) trained across time series have shown superior results in many demand forecasting competitions and real-world applications recently, compared with univariate forecasting approaches. We aim to fill the gap between the accuracy and the interpretability in global forecasting approaches. In order to explain the global model forecasts, we propose Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Rule-based Explanations for Forecasting (LIMREF), a local explainer framework that produces k-optimal impact rules for a particular forecast, considering the global forecasting model as a black-box model, in a model-agnostic way. It provides different types of rules that explain the forecast of the global model and the counterfactual rules, which provide actionable insights for potential changes to obtain different outputs for given instances. We conduct experiments using a large-scale electricity demand dataset with exogenous features such as temperature and calendar effects. Here, we evaluate the quality of the explanations produced by the LIMREF framework in terms of both qualitative and quantitative aspects such as accuracy, fidelity, and comprehensibility and benchmark those against other local explainers.
Petropoulos, Fotios, Apiletti, Daniele, Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, Babai, Mohamed Zied, Barrow, Devon K., Taieb, Souhaib Ben, Bergmeir, Christoph, Bessa, Ricardo J., Bijak, Jakub, Boylan, John E., Browell, Jethro, Carnevale, Claudio, Castle, Jennifer L., Cirillo, Pasquale, Clements, Michael P., Cordeiro, Clara, Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino, De Baets, Shari, Dokumentov, Alexander, Ellison, Joanne, Fiszeder, Piotr, Franses, Philip Hans, Frazier, David T., Gilliland, Michael, Gönül, M. Sinan, Goodwin, Paul, Grossi, Luigi, Grushka-Cockayne, Yael, Guidolin, Mariangela, Guidolin, Massimo, Gunter, Ulrich, Guo, Xiaojia, Guseo, Renato, Harvey, Nigel, Hendry, David F., Hollyman, Ross, Januschowski, Tim, Jeon, Jooyoung, Jose, Victor Richmond R., Kang, Yanfei, Koehler, Anne B., Kolassa, Stephan, Kourentzes, Nikolaos, Leva, Sonia, Li, Feng, Litsiou, Konstantia, Makridakis, Spyros, Martin, Gael M., Martinez, Andrew B., Meeran, Sheik, Modis, Theodore, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, Önkal, Dilek, Paccagnini, Alessia, Panagiotelis, Anastasios, Panapakidis, Ioannis, Pavía, Jose M., Pedio, Manuela, Pedregal, Diego J., Pinson, Pierre, Ramos, Patrícia, Rapach, David E., Reade, J. James, Rostami-Tabar, Bahman, Rubaszek, Michał, Sermpinis, Georgios, Shang, Han Lin, Spiliotis, Evangelos, Syntetos, Aris A., Talagala, Priyanga Dilini, Talagala, Thiyanga S., Tashman, Len, Thomakos, Dimitrios, Thorarinsdottir, Thordis, Todini, Ezio, Arenas, Juan Ramón Trapero, Wang, Xiaoqian, Winkler, Robert L., Yusupova, Alisa, Ziel, Florian
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
Demand forecasting is one of the most important aspects of logistics. While some businesses are able to make educated guesses based on previous years' sales, demand forecasting using artificial intelligence (AI) technology can help companies achieve higher degrees of precision when predicting future demand for their products. But how AI-Enabled demand forecasting boosts logistics? Forecasting is a complex task that can be made simpler by using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to analyze historical data about orders placed, the market, shipping routes, and weather. Today, demand forecasting has evolved into what is known as predictive demand planning or forecasting.