Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting is crucial for public health, disaster preparedness, and agriculture, and yet it remains a particularly challenging timescale to predict. We explore the use of an interpretable AI-informed model analog forecasting approach, previously employed on longer timescales, to improve S2S predictions. Using an artificial neural network, we learn a mask of weights to optimize analog selection and showcase its versatility across three varied prediction tasks: 1) classification of Week 3-4 Southern California summer temperatures; 2) regional regression of Month 1 midwestern U.S. summer temperatures; and 3) classification of Month 1-2 North Atlantic wintertime upper atmospheric winds. The AI-informed analogs outperform traditional analog forecasting approaches, as well as climatology and persistence baselines, for deterministic and probabilistic skill metrics on both climate model and reanalysis data. We find the analog ensembles built using the AI-informed approach also produce better predictions of temperature extremes and improve representation of forecast uncertainty. Finally, by using an interpretable-AI framework, we analyze the learned masks of weights to better understand S2S sources of predictability.

Premium automotive manufacturers face increasingly complex forecasting challenges due to high product variety, sparse variant-level data, and volatile market dynamics. This study addresses monthly automobile demand forecasting across a multi-product, multi-market, and multi-level hierarchy using data from a German premium manufacturer. The methodology combines point and probabilistic forecasts across strategic and operational planning levels, leveraging ensembles of LightGBM models with pooled training sets, quantile regression, and a mixed-integer linear programming reconciliation approach. Results highlight that spatiotemporal dependencies, as well as rounding bias, significantly affect forecast accuracy, underscoring the importance of integer forecasts for operational feasibility. Shapley analysis shows that short-term demand is reactive, shaped by life cycle maturity, autoregressive momentum, and operational signals, whereas medium-term demand reflects anticipatory drivers such as online engagement, planning targets, and competitive indicators, with online behavioral data considerably improving accuracy at disaggregated levels.

To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models.

This paper presents a machine learning framework for electricity demand forecasting across diverse geographical regions using the gradient boosting algorithm XGBoost. The model integrates historical electricity demand and comprehensive weather and socioeconomic variables to predict normalized electricity demand profiles. To enable robust training and evaluation, we developed a large-scale dataset spanning multiple years and countries, applying a temporal data-splitting strategy that ensures benchmarking of out-of-sample performance. Our approach delivers accurate and scalable demand forecasts, providing valuable insights for energy system planners and policymakers as they navigate the challenges of the global energy transition.

Advancements in smart metering technologies have significantly improved the ability to monitor and manage water utilities. In the context of increasing uncertainty due to climate change, securing water resources and supply has emerged as an urgent global issue with extensive socioeconomic ramifications. Hourly consumption data from end-users have yielded substantial insights for projecting demand across regions characterized by diverse consumption patterns. Nevertheless, the prediction of water demand remains challenging due to influencing non-deterministic factors, such as meteorological conditions. This work introduces a novel method for short-term water demand forecasting for District Metered Areas (DMAs) which encompass commercial, agricultural, and residential consumers. Unsupervised contrastive learning is applied to categorize end-users according to distinct consumption behaviors present within a DMA. Subsequently, the distinct consumption behaviors are utilized as features in the ensuing demand forecasting task using wavelet-transformed convolutional networks that incorporate a cross-attention mechanism combining both historical data and the derived representations. The proposed approach is evaluated on real-world DMAs over a six-month period, demonstrating improved forecasting performance in terms of MAPE across different DMAs, with a maximum improvement of 4.9%. Additionally, it identifies consumers whose behavior is shaped by socioeconomic factors, enhancing prior knowledge about the deterministic patterns that influence demand.

Multi-horizon time series forecasting has many practical applications such as demand forecasting. Accurate demand prediction is critical to help make buying and inventory decisions for supply chain management of e-commerce and physical retailers, and such predictions are typically required for future horizons extending tens of weeks. This is especially challenging during high-stake sales events when demand peaks are particularly difficult to predict accurately. However, these events are important not only for managing supply chain operations but also for ensuring a seamless shopping experience for customers. To address this challenge, we propose Temporal-Aligned Transformer (TAT), a multi-horizon forecaster leveraging apriori-known context variables such as holiday and promotion events information for improving predictive performance. Our model consists of an encoder and decoder, both embedded with a novel Temporal Alignment Attention (TAA), designed to learn context-dependent alignment for peak demand forecasting. We conduct extensive empirical analysis on two large-scale proprietary datasets from a large e-commerce retailer. We demonstrate that TAT brings up to 30% accuracy improvement on peak demand forecasting while maintaining competitive overall performance compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

Passenger demand forecasting helps optimize vehicle scheduling, thereby improving urban efficiency. Recently, attention-based methods have been used to adequately capture the dynamic nature of spatio-temporal data. However, existing methods that rely on heuristic masking strategies cannot fully adapt to the complex spatio-temporal correlations, hindering the model from focusing on the right context. These works also overlook the high-level correlations that exist in the real world. Effectively integrating these high-level correlations with the original correlations is crucial. To fill this gap, we propose the Aggregation Differential Transformer (ADFormer), which offers new insights to demand forecasting promotion. Specifically, we utilize Differential Attention to capture the original spatial correlations and achieve attention denoising. Meanwhile, we design distinct aggregation strategies based on the nature of space and time. Then, the original correlations are unified with the high-level correlations, enabling the model to capture holistic spatio-temporal relations. Experiments conducted on taxi and bike datasets confirm the effectiveness and efficiency of our model, demonstrating its practical value. The code is available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/ADFormer.

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on millions of public job advertisements collected from online recruitment platforms, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand.Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels.

Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents challenges, including incomplete data, poor data quality, and the need to account for multiple geographical and product factors. Current methods often rely on simple forecasting techniques, which fail to capture demand uncertainties arising from these factors, warranting expert involvement. Our study aims to improve contraceptive demand forecasting by combining probabilistic forecasting methods with expert knowledge. We developed a hybrid model that combines point forecasts from domain-specific model with probabilistic distributions from statistical and machine learning approaches, enabling human input to fine-tune and enhance the system-generated forecasts. This approach helps address the uncertainties in demand and is particularly useful in resource-limited settings. We evaluate different forecasting methods, including time series, Bayesian, machine learning, and foundational time series methods alongside our new hybrid approach. By comparing these methods, we provide insights into their strengths, weaknesses, and computational requirements. Our research fills a gap in forecasting contraceptive demand and offers a practical framework that combines algorithmic and human expertise. Our proposed model can also be generalized to other humanitarian contexts with similar data patterns.

Global leaders and policymakers are unified in their unequivocal commitment to decarbonization efforts in support of Net-Zero agreements. District Heating Systems (DHS), while contributing to carbon emissions due to the continued reliance on fossil fuels for heat production, are embracing more sustainable practices albeit with some sense of vulnerability as it could constrain their ability to adapt to dynamic demand and production scenarios. As demographic demands grow and renewables become the central strategy in decarbonizing the heating sector, the need for accurate demand forecasting has intensified. Advances in digitization have paved the way for Machine Learning (ML) based solutions to become the industry standard for modeling complex time series patterns. In this paper, we focus on building a Deep Learning (DL) model that uses deconstructed components of independent and dependent variables that affect heat demand as features to perform multi-step ahead forecasting of head demand. The model represents the input features in a time-frequency space and uses an attention mechanism to generate accurate forecasts. The proposed method is evaluated on a real-world dataset and the forecasting performance is assessed against LSTM and CNN-based forecasting models. Across different supply zones, the attention-based models outperforms the baselines quantitatively and qualitatively, with an Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.105 with a standard deviation of 0.06kW h and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.4% with a standard deviation of 2.8%, in comparison the second best model with a MAE of 0.10 with a standard deviation of 0.06kW h and a MAPE of 5.6% with a standard deviation of 3%.