The Internet of Things (IoT) faces tremendous security challenges. Machine learning models can be used to tackle the growing number of cyber-attack variations targeting IoT systems, but the increasing threat posed by adversarial attacks restates the need for reliable defense strategies. This work describes the types of constraints required for a realistic adversarial cyber-attack example and proposes a methodology for a trustworthy adversarial robustness analysis with a realistic adversarial evasion attack vector. The proposed methodology was used to evaluate three supervised algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), and one unsupervised algorithm, Isolation Forest (IFOR). Constrained adversarial examples were generated with the Adaptative Perturbation Pattern Method (A2PM), and evasion attacks were performed against models created with regular and adversarial training. Even though RF was the least affected in binary classification, XGB consistently achieved the highest accuracy in multi-class classification. The obtained results evidence the inherent susceptibility of tree-based algorithms and ensembles to adversarial evasion attacks and demonstrates the benefits of adversarial training and a security by design approach for a more robust IoT network intrusion detection and cyber-attack classification.

In the previous article of this series, I reviewed decision trees and how we can use them to make predictions. However, for many real-world problems, a single decision tree is often prone to bias and overfitting. We saw this in our example from the last blog, where even after a little hyperparameter tuning, our decision tree was still wrong 35% of the time. A solution to this poor performance problem is to use an ensemble of decision trees rather than just one. The key benefit of tree ensembles is they generally have better performance than a single decision tree. While there are many ways we could combine a set of decision trees to improve performance, two popular methods are bagging and boosting.

Merging satellite products and ground-based measurements is often required for obtaining precipitation datasets that simultaneously cover large regions with high density and are more accurate than pure satellite precipitation products. Machine and statistical learning regression algorithms are regularly utilized in this endeavour. At the same time, tree-based ensemble algorithms are adopted in various fields for solving regression problems with high accuracy and low computational cost. Still, information on which tree-based ensemble algorithm to select for correcting satellite precipitation products for the contiguous United States (US) at the daily time scale is missing from the literature. In this study, we worked towards filling this methodological gap by conducting an extensive comparison between three algorithms of the category of interest, specifically between random forests, gradient boosting machines (gbm) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). We used daily data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) gridded datasets. We also used earth-observed precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCNd) database. The experiments referred to the entire contiguous US and additionally included the application of the linear regression algorithm for benchmarking purposes. The results suggest that XGBoost is the best-performing tree-based ensemble algorithm among those compared...

Gridded satellite precipitation datasets are useful in hydrological applications as they cover large regions with high density. However, they are not accurate in the sense that they do not agree with ground-based measurements. An established means for improving their accuracy is to correct them by adopting machine learning algorithms. This correction takes the form of a regression problem, in which the ground-based measurements have the role of the dependent variable and the satellite data are the predictor variables, together with topography factors (e.g., elevation). Most studies of this kind involve a limited number of machine learning algorithms, and are conducted for a small region and for a limited time period. Thus, the results obtained through them are of local importance and do not provide more general guidance and best practices. To provide results that are generalizable and to contribute to the delivery of best practices, we here compare eight state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms in correcting satellite precipitation data for the entire contiguous United States and for a 15-year period. We use monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) gridded dataset, together with monthly earth-observed precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The results suggest that extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and random forests are the most accurate in terms of the squared error scoring function. The remaining algorithms can be ordered as follows from the best to the worst: Bayesian regularized feed-forward neural networks, multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), gradient boosting machines (gbm), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), feed-forward neural networks, linear regression.

The Internet of Things (IoT) faces tremendous security challenges. Machine learning models can be used to tackle the growing number of cyber-attack variations targeting IoT systems, but the increasing threat posed by adversarial attacks restates the need for reliable defense strategies. This work describes the types of constraints required for a realistic adversarial cyber-attack example and proposes a methodology for a trustworthy adversarial robustness analysis with a realistic adversarial evasion attack vector. The proposed methodology was used to evaluate three supervised algorithms, Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), and one unsupervised algorithm, Isolation Forest (IFOR). Constrained adversarial examples were generated with the Adaptative Perturbation Pattern Method (A2PM), and evasion attacks were performed against models created with regular and adversarial training. Even though RF was the least affected in binary classification, XGB consistently achieved the highest accuracy in multi-class classification. The obtained results evidence the inherent susceptibility of tree-based algorithms and ensembles to adversarial evasion attacks and demonstrates the benefits of adversarial training and a security by design approach for a more robust IoT network intrusion detection and cyber-attack classification.

Tabular data is prevalent in many high-stakes domains, such as financial services or public policy. Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) are popular in these settings due to their scalability, performance, and low training cost. While fairness in these domains is a foremost concern, existing in-processing Fair ML methods are either incompatible with GBDT, or incur in significant performance losses while taking considerably longer to train. We present FairGBM, a dual ascent learning framework for training GBDT under fairness constraints, with little to no impact on predictive performance when compared to unconstrained GBDT. Since observational fairness metrics are non-differentiable, we propose smooth convex error rate proxies for common fairness criteria, enabling gradient-based optimization using a ``proxy-Lagrangian'' formulation. Our implementation shows an order of magnitude speedup in training time relative to related work, a pivotal aspect to foster the widespread adoption of FairGBM by real-world practitioners.

In many studies, we want to determine the influence of certain features on a dependent variable. More specifically, we are interested in the strength of the influence -- i.e., is the feature relevant? -- and, if so, how the feature influences the dependent variable. Recently, data-driven approaches such as \emph{random forest regression} have found their way into applications (Boulesteix et al., 2012). These models allow to directly derive measures of feature importance, which are a natural indicator of the strength of the influence. For the relevant features, the correlation or rank correlation between the feature and the dependent variable has typically been used to determine the nature of the influence. More recent methods, some of which can also measure interactions between features, are based on a modeling approach. In particular, when machine learning models are used, SHAP scores are a recent and prominent method to determine these trends (Lundberg et al., 2017). In this paper, we introduce a novel notion of feature importance based on the well-studied Gram-Schmidt decorrelation method. Furthermore, we propose two estimators for identifying trends in the data using random forest regression, the so-called absolute and relative transversal rate. We empirically compare the properties of our estimators with those of well-established estimators on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.

For tabular data sets, we explore data and model distillation, as well as data denoising. These techniques improve both gradient-boosting models and a specialized DNN architecture. While gradient boosting is known to outperform DNNs on tabular data, we close the gap for datasets with 100K+ rows and give DNNs an advantage on small data sets. We extend these results with input-data distillation and optimized ensembling to help DNN performance match or exceed that of gradient boosting. As a theoretical justification of our practical method, we prove its equivalence to classical cross-entropy knowledge distillation. We also qualitatively explain the superiority of DNN ensembles over XGBoost on small data sets. For an industry end-to-end real-time ML platform with 4M production inferences per second, we develop a model-training workflow based on data sampling that distills ensembles of models into a single gradient-boosting model favored for high-performance real-time inference, without performance loss. Empirical evaluation shows that the proposed combination of methods consistently improves model accuracy over prior best models across several production applications deployed worldwide.

It becomes a significant challenge to predict customer behavior and retain an existing customer with the rapid growth of digitization which opens up more opportunities for customers to choose from subscription-based products and services model. Since the cost of acquiring a new customer is five-times higher than retaining an existing customer, henceforth, there is a need to address the customer churn problem which is a major threat across the Industries. Considering direct impact on revenues, companies identify the factors that increases the customer churn rate. Here, key objective of the paper is to develop a unique Customer churn prediction model which can help to predict potential customers who are most likely to churn and such early warnings can help to take corrective measures to retain them. Here, we evaluated and analyzed the performance of various tree-based machine learning approaches and algorithms and identified the Extreme Gradient Boosting XGBOOST Classifier as the most optimal solution to Customer churn problem. To deal with such real-world problems, Paper emphasize the Model interpretability which is an important metric to help customers to understand how Churn Prediction Model is making predictions. In order to improve Model explainability and transparency, paper proposed a novel approach to calculate Shapley values for possible combination of features to explain which features are the most important/relevant features for a model to become highly interpretable, transparent and explainable to potential customers.

Scientists at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands have developed a machine-learning (ML) technique to predict power yields in rooftop PV system. They claim it can predict electricity generation levels one hour ahead. They described their findings in "Individual yield nowcasting for residential PV systems," which was recently published in Solar Energy. The researchers said the new approach can forecast the individual power output of large fleets of PV systems. Their novel method is based on a single XGBoost algorithm, which is a decision-tree ensemble, open-access algorithm that uses a gradient-boosting framework.