Boosting algorithms belong to a class of ensemble classification approaches which use weak assumptions on the learner to efficient manner to improve performance. GentleBoost is an algorithm which was first introduced as an alternative Adaboost approach which uses Newton steps rather than exact optimization on each step (see Friedman, Hastie, and Tibshirani 2000, p353). Unlike other AdaBoost variants, GentleBoost has not received as much attention as it yields empirically inferior performance compared with other Adaboost algorithms when used on a wide range of benchmark datasets. In machine learning, the ability to extend algorithms from a batch setting to an online setting is an important topic. Online approaches can operate on streams and use datasets which are too large to fit in memory. In this technical report we provide an approach to extend GentleBoost to the online setting through using line search. In addition we perform experiments to demonstrate that the algorithm is theoretically sound and has practical usecases.

Automated detection of defects in Printed Circuit Board (PCB) manufacturing using Solder Paste Inspection (SPI) and Automated Optical Inspection (AOI) machines can help improve operational efficiency and significantly reduce the need for manual intervention. In this paper, using SPI-extracted features of 6 million pins, we demonstrate a data-centric approach to train Machine Learning (ML) models to detect PCB defects at three stages of PCB manufacturing. The 6 million PCB pins correspond to 2 million components that belong to 15,387 PCBs. Using a base extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) ML model, we iterate on the data pre-processing step to improve detection performance. Combining pin-level SPI features using component and PCB IDs, we developed training instances also at the component and PCB level. This allows the ML model to capture any inter-pin, inter-component, or spatial effects that may not be apparent at the pin level. Models are trained at the pin, component, and PCB levels, and the detection results from the different models are combined to identify defective components.

Recent papers have used machine learning architecture to fit low-order functional ANOVA models with main effects and second-order interactions. These GAMI (GAM + Interaction) models are directly interpretable as the functional main effects and interactions can be easily plotted and visualized. Unfortunately, it is not easy to incorporate the monotonicity requirement into the existing GAMI models based on boosted trees, such as EBM (Lou et al. 2013) and GAMI-Lin-T (Hu et al. 2022). This paper considers models of the form $f(x)=\sum_{j,k}f_{j,k}(x_j, x_k)$ and develops monotone tree-based GAMI models, called monotone GAMI-Tree, by adapting the XGBoost algorithm. It is straightforward to fit a monotone model to $f(x)$ using the options in XGBoost. However, the fitted model is still a black box. We take a different approach: i) use a filtering technique to determine the important interactions, ii) fit a monotone XGBoost algorithm with the selected interactions, and finally iii) parse and purify the results to get a monotone GAMI model. Simulated datasets are used to demonstrate the behaviors of mono-GAMI-Tree and EBM, both of which use piecewise constant fits. Note that the monotonicity requirement is for the full model. Under certain situations, the main effects will also be monotone. But, as seen in the examples, the interactions will not be monotone.

Given the huge volume of cross-border flows, effective and efficient control of trade becomes more crucial in protecting people and society from illicit trade. However, limited accessibility of the transaction-level trade datasets hinders the progress of open research, and lots of customs administrations have not benefited from the recent progress in data-based risk management. In this paper, we introduce an import declaration dataset to facilitate the collaboration between domain experts in customs administrations and researchers from diverse domains, such as data science and machine learning. The dataset contains 54,000 artificially generated trades with 22 key attributes, and it is synthesized with conditional tabular GAN while maintaining correlated features. Synthetic data has several advantages. First, releasing the dataset is free from restrictions that do not allow disclosing the original import data. The fabrication step minimizes the possible identity risk which may exist in trade statistics. Second, the published data follow a similar distribution to the source data so that it can be used in various downstream tasks. Hence, our dataset can be used as a benchmark for testing the performance of any classification algorithm. With the provision of data and its generation process, we open baseline codes for fraud detection tasks, as we empirically show that more advanced algorithms can better detect fraud.

In this paper, error estimates of classification Random Forests are quantitatively assessed. Based on the initial theoretical framework built by Bates et al. (2023), the true error rate and expected error rate are theoretically and empirically investigated in the context of a variety of error estimation methods common to Random Forests. We show that in the classification case, Random Forests' estimates of prediction error is closer on average to the true error rate instead of the average prediction error. This is opposite the findings of Bates et al. (2023) which were given for logistic regression. We further show that this result holds across different error estimation strategies such as cross-validation, bagging, and data splitting.

The rapid development of blockchain has led to more and more funding pouring into the cryptocurrency market, which also attracted cybercriminals' interest in recent years. The Ponzi scheme, an old-fashioned fraud, is now popular on the blockchain, causing considerable financial losses to many crypto-investors. A few Ponzi detection methods have been proposed in the literature, most of which detect a Ponzi scheme based on its smart contract source code or opcode. The contract-code-based approach, while achieving very high accuracy, is not robust: first, the source codes of a majority of contracts on Ethereum are not available, and second, a Ponzi developer can fool a contract-code-based detection model by obfuscating the opcode or inventing a new profit distribution logic that cannot be detected (since these models were trained on existing Ponzi logics only). A transaction-based approach could improve the robustness of detection because transactions, unlike smart contracts, are harder to be manipulated. However, the current transaction-based detection models achieve fairly low accuracy. We address this gap in the literature by developing new detection models that rely only on the transactions, hence guaranteeing the robustness, and moreover, achieve considerably higher Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1-score than existing transaction-based models. This is made possible thanks to the introduction of novel time-dependent features that capture Ponzi behaviours characteristics derived from our comprehensive data analyses on Ponzi and non-Ponzi data from the XBlock-ETH repository

We consider random forests and LASSO methods for model-based small area estimation when the number of areas with sampled data is a small fraction of the total areas for which estimates are required. Abundant auxiliary information is available for the sampled areas, from the survey, and for all areas, from an exterior source, and the goal is to use auxiliary variables to predict the outcome of interest. We compare areallevel random forests and LASSO approaches to a frequentist forward variable selection approach and a Bayesian shrinkage method. This work is motivated by Ghanaian data available from the sixth Living Standard Survey (GLSS) and the 2010 Population and Housing Census. We estimate the areal mean household log consumption using both datasets. The outcome variable is measured only in the GLSS for 3% of all the areas (136 out of 5019) and more than 170 potential covariates are available from both datasets. Among the four modelling methods considered, the Bayesian shrinkage performed the best in terms of bias, MSE and prediction interval coverages and scores, as assessed through a cross-validation study. We find substantial between-area variation, the log consumption areal point estimates showing a 1.3-fold variation across the GAMA region. The western areas are the poorest while the Accra Metropolitan Area district gathers the richest areas. In 2015, the United Nations (UN) released their 2030 agenda for sustainable development goals (SDGs) consisting of 17 goals, the first of which was to end poverty worldwide (Resolution, General Assembly and others, 2015). For their first SDG, the UN made seven guidelines explicit, including the implementation of "poverty eradication policies" at a disaggregated level. To that end, producing reliable and fine-grained pictures of socioeconomic status and income inequality is fundamental to help decision makers prioritise and target certain areas. These detailed maps help local communities understand their situation compared to their neighbours, which also helps when planning interventions (Bedi et al., 2007). In Ghana, household surveys are collected every few years to measure the living conditions of households across Ghanaian regions and districts and to monitor poverty.

Machine learning is becoming ubiquitous. From finance to medicine, machine learning models are boosting decision-making processes and even outperforming humans in some tasks. This huge progress in terms of prediction quality does not however find a counterpart in the security of such models and corresponding predictions, where perturbations of fractions of the training set (poisoning) can seriously undermine the model accuracy. Research on poisoning attacks and defenses received increasing attention in the last decade, leading to several promising solutions aiming to increase the robustness of machine learning. Among them, ensemble-based defenses, where different models are trained on portions of the training set and their predictions are then aggregated, provide strong theoretical guarantees at the price of a linear overhead. Surprisingly, ensemble-based defenses, which do not pose any restrictions on the base model, have not been applied to increase the robustness of random forest models. The work in this paper aims to fill in this gap by designing and implementing a novel hash-based ensemble approach that protects random forest against untargeted, random poisoning attacks. An extensive experimental evaluation measures the performance of our approach against a variety of attacks, as well as its sustainability in terms of resource consumption and performance, and compares it with a traditional monolithic model based on random forest. A final discussion presents our main findings and compares our approach with existing poisoning defenses targeting random forests.

There has been a growing interest in creating intelligent diagnostic systems to assist medical professionals in analyzing and processing big data for the treatment of incurable diseases. One of the key challenges in this field is detecting thyroid cancer, where advancements have been made using machine learning (ML) and big data analytics to evaluate thyroid cancer prognosis and determine a patient's risk of malignancy. This review paper summarizes a large collection of articles related to artificial intelligence (AI)-based techniques used in the diagnosis of thyroid cancer. Accordingly, a new classification was introduced to classify these techniques based on the AI algorithms used, the purpose of the framework, and the computing platforms used. Additionally, this study compares existing thyroid cancer datasets based on their features. The focus of this study is on how AI-based tools can support the diagnosis and treatment of thyroid cancer, through supervised, unsupervised, or hybrid techniques. It also highlights the progress made and the unresolved challenges in this field. Finally, the future trends and areas of focus in this field are discussed.

Hyperbolic space is becoming a popular choice for representing data due to the hierarchical structure - whether implicit or explicit - of many real-world datasets. Along with it comes a need for algorithms capable of solving fundamental tasks, such as classification, in hyperbolic space. Recently, multiple papers have investigated hyperbolic alternatives to hyperplane-based classifiers, such as logistic regression and SVMs. While effective, these approaches struggle with more complex hierarchical data. We, therefore, propose to generalize the well-known random forests to hyperbolic space. We do this by redefining the notion of a split using horospheres. Since finding the globally optimal split is computationally intractable, we find candidate horospheres through a large-margin classifier. To make hyperbolic random forests work on multi-class data and imbalanced experiments, we furthermore outline a new method for combining classes based on their lowest common ancestor and a class-balanced version of the large-margin loss. Experiments on standard and new benchmarks show that our approach outperforms both conventional random forest algorithms and recent hyperbolic classifiers.