The increasing global demand for clean and environmentally friendly energy resources has caused increased interest in harnessing solar power through photovoltaic (PV) systems for smart grids and homes. However, the inherent unpredictability of PV generation poses problems associated with smart grid planning and management, energy trading and market participation, demand response, reliability, etc. Therefore, solar irradiance forecasting is essential for optimizing PV system utilization. This study proposes the next-generation machine learning algorithms such as random forests, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosted Machine (lightGBM) ensemble, CatBoost, and Multilayer Perceptron Artificial Neural Networks (MLP-ANNs) to forecast solar irradiance. Besides, Bayesian optimization is applied to hyperparameter tuning. Unlike tree-based ensemble algorithms that select the features intrinsically, MLP-ANN needs feature selection as a separate step. The simulation results indicate that the performance of the MLP-ANNs improves when feature selection is applied. Besides, the random forest outperforms the other learning algorithms.

In this paper we tackle the problem of point and probabilistic forecasting by describing a blending methodology of machine learning models that belong to gradient boosted trees and neural networks families. These principles were successfully applied in the recent M5 Competition on both Accuracy and Uncertainty tracks. The keypoints of our methodology are: a) transform the task to regression on sales for a single day b) information rich feature engineering c) create a diverse set of state-of-the-art machine learning models and d) carefully construct validation sets for model tuning. We argue that the diversity of the machine learning models along with the careful selection of validation examples, where the most important ingredients for the effectiveness of our approach. Although forecasting data had an inherent hierarchy structure (12 levels), none of our proposed solutions exploited that hierarchical scheme. Using the proposed methodology, our team was ranked within the gold medal range in both Accuracy and the Uncertainty track. Inference code along with already trained models are available at https://github.com/IoannisNasios/M5_Uncertainty_3rd_place

Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss function that directly optimizes the hierarchical product and/or temporal structure. The benefit of our sparse hierarchical loss function is that it provides practitioners a method of producing bottom-level forecasts that are coherent to any chosen cross-sectional or temporal hierarchy. In addition, removing the need for a post-processing step as required in traditional hierarchical forecasting techniques reduces the computational cost of the prediction phase in the forecasting pipeline. On the public M5 dataset, our sparse hierarchical loss function performs up to 10% (RMSE) better compared to the baseline loss function. We implement our sparse hierarchical loss function within an existing forecasting model at bol, a large European e-commerce platform, resulting in an improved forecasting performance of 2% at the product level. Finally, we found an increase in forecasting performance of about 5-10% when evaluating the forecasting performance across the cross-sectional hierarchies that we defined. These results demonstrate the usefulness of our sparse hierarchical loss applied to a production forecasting system at a major e-commerce platform.

We initiate a novel approach to explain the out of sample performance of random forest (RF) models by exploiting the fact that any RF can be formulated as an adaptive weighted K nearest-neighbors model. Specifically, we use the proximity between points in the feature space learned by the RF to re-write random forest predictions exactly as a weighted average of the target labels of training data points. This linearity facilitates a local notion of explainability of RF predictions that generates attributions for any model prediction across observations in the training set, and thereby complements established methods like SHAP, which instead generates attributions for a model prediction across dimensions of the feature space. We demonstrate this approach in the context of a bond pricing model trained on US corporate bond trades, and compare our approach to various existing approaches to model explainability.

Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a flexible forest-based method to estimate the full conditional distribution of a multivariate output of interest given input variables. In this article, we introduce a variable importance algorithm for DRFs, based on the well-established drop and relearn principle and MMD distance. While traditional importance measures only detect variables with an influence on the output mean, our algorithm detects variables impacting the output distribution more generally. We show that the introduced importance measure is consistent, exhibits high empirical performance on both real and simulated data, and outperforms competitors. In particular, our algorithm is highly efficient to select variables through recursive feature elimination, and can therefore provide small sets of variables to build accurate estimates of conditional output distributions.

Random Forest (RF) is a well-known data-driven algorithm applied in several fields thanks to its flexibility in modeling the relationship between the response variable and the predictors, also in case of strong non-linearities. In environmental applications, it often occurs that the phenomenon of interest may present spatial and/or temporal dependence that is not taken explicitly into account by RF in its standard version. In this work, we propose a taxonomy to classify strategies according to when (Pre-, In- and/or Post-processing) they try to include the spatial information into regression RF. Moreover, we provide a systematic review and classify the most recent strategies adopted to "adjust" regression RF to spatially dependent data, based on the criteria provided by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA). The latter consists of a reproducible methodology for collecting and processing existing literature on a specified topic from different sources. PRISMA starts with a query and ends with a set of scientific documents to review: we performed an online query on the 25$^{th}$ October 2022 and, in the end, 32 documents were considered for review. The employed methodological strategies and the application fields considered in the 32 scientific documents are described and discussed. This work falls inside the Agriculture Impact On Italian Air (AgrImOnIA) project.

In this paper, we modify the proof methods of some previously weakly consistent variants of random forests into strongly consistent proof methods, and improve the data utilization of these variants in order to obtain better theoretical properties and experimental performance. In addition, we propose a data-driven multinomial random forest (DMRF), which has the same complexity with BreimanRF (proposed by Breiman) while satisfying strong consistency with probability 1. It has better performance in classification and regression problems than previous RF variants that only satisfy weak consistency, and in most cases even surpasses BreimanRF in classification tasks. To the best of our knowledge, DMRF is currently a low-complexity and high-performing variation of random forests that achieves strong consistency with probability 1.

Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) has emerged as a collaborative training paradigm that allows participants with different features of the same group of users to accomplish cooperative training without exposing their raw data or model parameters. VFL has gained significant attention for its research potential and real-world applications in recent years, but still faces substantial challenges, such as in defending various kinds of data inference and backdoor attacks. Moreover, most of existing VFL projects are industry-facing and not easily used for keeping track of the current research progress. To address this need, we present an extensible and lightweight VFL framework VFLAIR (available at https://github.com/FLAIR-THU/VFLAIR), which supports VFL training with a variety of models, datasets and protocols, along with standardized modules for comprehensive evaluations of attacks and defense strategies. We also benchmark 11 attacks and 8 defenses performance under different communication and model partition settings and draw concrete insights and recommendations on the choice of defense strategies for different practical VFL deployment scenario.

The use of credit cards has recently increased, creating an essential need for credit card assessment methods to minimize potential risks. This study investigates the utilization of machine learning (ML) models for credit card default prediction system. The main goal here is to investigate the best-performing ML model for new proposed credit card scoring dataset. This new dataset includes credit card transaction histories and customer profiles, is proposed and tested using a variety of machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network, XGBoost, and LightGBM. To prepare the data for machine learning models, we perform data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and data balancing techniques. Experimental results demonstrate that MLP outperforms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, LightGBM, and XGBoost in terms of predictive performance in true positive rate, achieving an impressive area under the curve (AUC) of 86.7% and an accuracy rate of 91.6%, with a recall rate exceeding 80%. These results indicate the superiority of MLP in predicting the default customers and assessing the potential risks. Furthermore, they help banks and other financial institutions in predicting loan defaults at an earlier stage.

As the complexity and scale of modern computer networks continue to increase, there has emerged an urgent need for precise traffic analysis, which plays a pivotal role in cutting-edge wireless connectivity technologies. This study focuses on leveraging Machine Learning methodologies to create an advanced network traffic classification system. We introduce a novel data-driven approach that excels in identifying various network service types in real-time, by analyzing patterns within the network traffic. Our method organizes similar kinds of network traffic into distinct categories, referred to as network services, based on latency requirement. Furthermore, it decomposes the network traffic stream into multiple, smaller traffic flows, with each flow uniquely carrying a specific service. Our ML models are trained on a dataset comprised of labeled examples representing different network service types collected on various Wi-Fi network conditions. Upon evaluation, our system demonstrates a remarkable accuracy in distinguishing the network services. These results emphasize the substantial promise of integrating Artificial Intelligence in wireless technologies. Such an approach encourages more efficient energy consumption, enhances Quality of Service assurance, and optimizes the allocation of network resources, thus laying a solid groundwork for the development of advanced intelligent networks.