Ensemble Learning
Explainable artificial intelligence model for identifying Market Value in Professional Soccer Players
Huang, Chunyang, Zhang, Shaoliang
This study introduces an advanced machine learning method for predicting soccer players' market values, combining ensemble models and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) for interpretability. Utilizing data from about 12,000 players from Sofifa, the Boruta algorithm streamlined feature selection. The Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model excelled in predictive accuracy, with an R-squared of 0.901 and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 3,221,632.175. Player attributes in skills, fitness, and cognitive areas significantly influenced market value. These insights aid sports industry stakeholders in player valuation. However, the study has limitations, like underestimating superstar players' values and needing larger datasets. Future research directions include enhancing the model's applicability and exploring value prediction in various contexts.
Learning Optimal and Fair Policies for Online Allocation of Scarce Societal Resources from Data Collected in Deployment
Tang, Bill, Koçyiğit, Çağıl, Rice, Eric, Vayanos, Phebe
We study the problem of allocating scarce societal resources of different types (e.g., permanent housing, deceased donor kidneys for transplantation, ventilators) to heterogeneous allocatees on a waitlist (e.g., people experiencing homelessness, individuals suffering from end-stage renal disease, Covid-19 patients) based on their observed covariates. We leverage administrative data collected in deployment to design an online policy that maximizes expected outcomes while satisfying budget constraints, in the long run. Our proposed policy waitlists each individual for the resource maximizing the difference between their estimated mean treatment outcome and the estimated resource dual-price or, roughly, the opportunity cost of using the resource. Resources are then allocated as they arrive, in a first-come first-serve fashion. We demonstrate that our data-driven policy almost surely asymptotically achieves the expected outcome of the optimal out-of-sample policy under mild technical assumptions. We extend our framework to incorporate various fairness constraints. We evaluate the performance of our approach on the problem of designing policies for allocating scarce housing resources to people experiencing homelessness in Los Angeles based on data from the homeless management information system. In particular, we show that using our policies improves rates of exit from homelessness by 1.9% and that policies that are fair in either allocation or outcomes by race come at a very low price of fairness.
SecureCut: Federated Gradient Boosting Decision Trees with Efficient Machine Unlearning
Zhang, Jian, Li, Bowen Li Jie, Wu, Chentao
In response to legislation mandating companies to honor the \textit{right to be forgotten} by erasing user data, it has become imperative to enable data removal in Vertical Federated Learning (VFL) where multiple parties provide private features for model training. In VFL, data removal, i.e., \textit{machine unlearning}, often requires removing specific features across all samples under privacy guarentee in federated learning. To address this challenge, we propose \methname, a novel Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) framework that effectively enables both \textit{instance unlearning} and \textit{feature unlearning} without the need for retraining from scratch. Leveraging a robust GBDT structure, we enable effective data deletion while reducing degradation of model performance. Extensive experimental results on popular datasets demonstrate that our method achieves superior model utility and forgetfulness compared to \textit{state-of-the-art} methods. To our best knowledge, this is the first work that investigates machine unlearning in VFL scenarios.
Trustworthy AI: Deciding What to Decide
Wu, Caesar, Li, Yuan-Fang, Li, Jian, Xu, Jingjing, Pascal, Bouvry
When engaging in strategic decision-making, we are frequently confronted with overwhelming information and data. The situation can be further complicated when certain pieces of evidence contradict each other or become paradoxical. The primary challenge is how to determine which information can be trusted when we adopt Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems for decision-making. This issue is known as deciding what to decide or Trustworthy AI. However, the AI system itself is often considered an opaque black box. We propose a new approach to address this issue by introducing a novel framework of Trustworthy AI (TAI) encompassing three crucial components of AI: representation space, loss function, and optimizer. Each component is loosely coupled with four TAI properties. Altogether, the framework consists of twelve TAI properties. We aim to use this framework to conduct the TAI experiments by quantitive and qualitative research methods to satisfy TAI properties for the decision-making context. The framework allows us to formulate an optimal prediction model trained by the given dataset for applying the strategic investment decision of credit default swaps (CDS) in the technology sector. Finally, we provide our view of the future direction of TAI research
Adaptive Modelling Approach for Row-Type Dependent Predictive Analysis (RTDPA): A Framework for Designing Machine Learning Models for Credit Risk Analysis in Banking Sector
In many real-world datasets, rows may have distinct characteristics and require different modeling approaches for accurate predictions. In this paper, we propose an adaptive modeling approach for row-type dependent predictive analysis(RTDPA). Our framework enables the development of models that can effectively handle diverse row types within a single dataset. Our dataset from XXX bank contains two different risk categories, personal loan and agriculture loan. each of them are categorised into four classes standard, sub-standard, doubtful and loss. We performed tailored data pre processing and feature engineering to different row types. We selected traditional machine learning predictive models and advanced ensemble techniques. Our findings indicate that all predictive approaches consistently achieve a precision rate of no less than 90%. For RTDPA, the algorithms are applied separately for each row type, allowing the models to capture the specific patterns and characteristics of each row type. This approach enables targeted predictions based on the row type, providing a more accurate and tailored classification for the given dataset.Additionally, the suggested model consistently offers decision makers valuable and enduring insights that are strategic in nature in banking sector.
Random Forest Kernel for High-Dimension Low Sample Size Classification
Cavalheiro, Lucca Portes, Bernard, Simon, Barddal, Jean Paul, Heutte, Laurent
High dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) problems are numerous among real-world applications of machine learning. From medical images to text processing, traditional machine learning algorithms are usually unsuccessful in learning the best possible concept from such data. In a previous work, we proposed a dissimilarity-based approach for multi-view classification, the Random Forest Dissimilarity (RFD), that perfoms state-of-the-art results for such problems. In this work, we transpose the core principle of this approach to solving HDLSS classification problems, by using the RF similarity measure as a learned precomputed SVM kernel (RFSVM). We show that such a learned similarity measure is particularly suited and accurate for this classification context. Experiments conducted on 40 public HDLSS classification datasets, supported by rigorous statistical analyses, show that the RFSVM method outperforms existing methods for the majority of HDLSS problems and remains at the same time very competitive for low or non-HDLSS problems.
Xputer: Bridging Data Gaps with NMF, XGBoost, and a Streamlined GUI Experience
Younus, Saleena, Rönnstrand, Lars, Kazi, Julhash U.
The rapid proliferation of data across diverse fields has accentuated the importance of accurate imputation for missing values. This task is crucial for ensuring data integrity and deriving meaningful insights. In response to this challenge, we present Xputer, a novel imputation tool that adeptly integrates Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) with the predictive strengths of XGBoost. One of Xputer's standout features is its versatility: it supports zero imputation, enables hyperparameter optimization through Optuna, and allows users to define the number of iterations. For enhanced user experience and accessibility, we have equipped Xputer with an intuitive Graphical User Interface (GUI) ensuring ease of handling, even for those less familiar with computational tools. In performance benchmarks, Xputer not only rivals the computational speed of established tools such as IterativeImputer but also often outperforms them in terms of imputation accuracy. Furthermore, Xputer autonomously handles a diverse spectrum of data types, including categorical, continuous, and Boolean, eliminating the need for prior preprocessing. Given its blend of performance, flexibility, and user-friendly design, Xputer emerges as a state-of-the-art solution in the realm of data imputation.
Self-supervised learning of multi-omics embeddings in the low-label, high-data regime
Hurry, Christian John, Slade, Emma
Contrastive, self-supervised learning (SSL) is used to train a model that predicts cancer type from miRNA, mRNA or RPPA expression data. This model, a pretrained FT-Transformer, is shown to outperform XGBoost and CatBoost, standard benchmarks for tabular data, when labelled samples are scarce but the number of unlabelled samples is high. This is despite the fact that the datasets we use have $\mathcal{O}(10^{1})$ classes and $\mathcal{O}(10^{2})-\mathcal{O}(10^{4})$ features. After demonstrating the efficacy of our chosen method of self-supervised pretraining, we investigate SSL for multi-modal models. A late-fusion model is proposed, where each omics is passed through its own sub-network, the outputs of which are averaged and passed to the pretraining or downstream objective function. Multi-modal pretraining is shown to improve predictions from a single omics, and we argue that this is useful for datasets with many unlabelled multi-modal samples, but few labelled unimodal samples. Additionally, we show that pretraining each omics-specific module individually is highly effective. This enables the application of the proposed model in a variety of contexts where a large amount of unlabelled data is available from each omics, but only a few labelled samples.
Modelling daily mobility using mobile data traffic at fine spatiotemporal scale
Christidis, Panayotis, Gonzalo, Maria Vega, Radics, Miklos
We applied a data-driven approach that explores the usability of the NetMob 2023 dataset in modelling mobility patterns within an urban context. We combined the data with a highly suitable external source, the ENACT dataset, which provides a 1 km x 1km grid with estimates of the day and night population across Europe. We developed three sets of XGBoost models that predict the population in each 100m x 100m grid cell used in NetMob2023 based on the mobile data traffic of the 68 online services covered in the dataset, using the ENACT values as ground truth. The results suggest that the NetMob 2023 data can be useful for the estimation of the day and night population and grid cell level and can explain part of the dynamics of urban mobility.
Machine learning for uncertainty estimation in fusing precipitation observations from satellites and ground-based gauges
Papacharalampous, Georgia, Tyralis, Hristos, Doulamis, Nikolaos, Doulamis, Anastasios
To form precipitation datasets that are accurate and, at the same time, have high spatial densities, data from satellites and gauges are often merged in the literature. However, uncertainty estimates for the data acquired in this manner are scarcely provided, although the importance of uncertainty quantification in predictive modelling is widely recognized. Furthermore, the benefits that machine learning can bring to the task of providing such estimates have not been broadly realized and properly explored through benchmark experiments. The present study aims at filling in this specific gap by conducting the first benchmark tests on the topic. On a large dataset that comprises 15-year-long monthly data spanning across the contiguous United States, we extensively compared six learners that are, by their construction, appropriate for predictive uncertainty quantification. These are the quantile regression (QR), quantile regression forests (QRF), generalized random forests (GRF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) and quantile regression neural networks (QRNN). The comparison referred to the competence of the learners in issuing predictive quantiles at nine levels that facilitate a good approximation of the entire predictive probability distribution, and was primarily based on the quantile and continuous ranked probability skill scores. Three types of predictor variables (i.e., satellite precipitation variables, distances between a point of interest and satellite grid points, and elevation at a point of interest) were used in the comparison and were additionally compared with each other. This additional comparison was based on the explainable machine learning concept of feature importance. The results suggest that the order from the best to the worst of the learners for the task investigated is the following: LightGBM, QRF, GRF, GBM, QRNN and QR...