Daily monitoring of stress is a critical component of maintaining optimal physical and mental health. Physiological signals and contextual information have recently emerged as promising indicators for detecting instances of heightened stress. Nonetheless, developing a real-time monitoring system that utilizes both physiological and contextual data to anticipate stress levels in everyday settings while also gathering stress labels from participants represents a significant challenge. We present a monitoring system that objectively tracks daily stress levels by utilizing both physiological and contextual data in a daily-life environment. Additionally, we have integrated a smart labeling approach to optimize the ecological momentary assessment (EMA) collection, which is required for building machine learning models for stress detection. We propose a three-tier Internet-of-Things-based system architecture to address the challenges. We utilized a cross-validation technique to accurately estimate the performance of our stress models. We achieved the F1-score of 70\% with a Random Forest classifier using both PPG and contextual data, which is considered an acceptable score in models built for everyday settings. Whereas using PPG data alone, the highest F1-score achieved is approximately 56\%, emphasizing the significance of incorporating both PPG and contextual data in stress detection tasks.

A standard tool for modelling real-world optimisation problems is mixed-integer programming (MIP). However, for many of these problems there is either incomplete information describing variable relations, or the relations between variables are highly complex. To overcome both these hurdles, machine learning (ML) models are often used and embedded in the MIP as surrogate models to represent these relations. Due to the large amount of available ML frameworks, formulating ML models into MIPs is highly non-trivial. In this paper we propose a tool for the automatic MIP formulation of trained ML models, allowing easy integration of ML constraints into MIPs. In addition, we introduce a library of MIP instances with embedded ML constraints. The project is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/PySCIPOpt-ML.

The advent of Foundation Models is transforming machine learning across many modalities (e.g., language, images, videos) with prompt engineering replacing training in many settings. Recent work on tabular data (e.g., TabPFN) hints at a similar opportunity to build Foundation Models for classification for numerical data. In this paper, we go one step further and propose a hypernetwork architecture that we call MotherNet, trained on millions of classification tasks, that, once prompted with a never-seen-before training set generates the weights of a trained ``child'' neural-network. Like other Foundation Models, MotherNet replaces training on specific datasets with in-context learning through a single forward pass. In contrast to existing hypernetworks that were either task-specific or trained for relatively constraint multi-task settings, MotherNet is trained to generate networks to perform multiclass classification on arbitrary tabular datasets without any dataset specific gradient descent. The child network generated by MotherNet using in-context learning outperforms neural networks trained using gradient descent on small datasets, and is competitive with predictions by TabPFN and standard ML methods like Gradient Boosting. Unlike a direct application of transformer models like TabPFN, MotherNet generated networks are highly efficient at inference time. This methodology opens up a new approach to building predictive models on tabular data that is both efficient and robust, without any dataset-specific training.

Research on adversarial robustness is primarily focused on image and text data. Yet, many scenarios in which lack of robustness can result in serious risks, such as fraud detection, medical diagnosis, or recommender systems often do not rely on images or text but instead on tabular data. Adversarial robustness in tabular data poses two serious challenges. First, tabular datasets often contain categorical features, and therefore cannot be tackled directly with existing optimization procedures. Second, in the tabular domain, algorithms that are not based on deep networks are widely used and offer great performance, but algorithms to enhance robustness are tailored to neural networks (e.g. adversarial training). In this paper, we tackle both challenges. We present a method that allows us to train adversarially robust deep networks for tabular data and to transfer this robustness to other classifiers via universal robust embeddings tailored to categorical data. These embeddings, created using a bilevel alternating minimization framework, can be transferred to boosted trees or random forests making them robust without the need for adversarial training while preserving their high accuracy on tabular data. We show that our methods outperform existing techniques within a practical threat model suitable for tabular data.

Ovarian cancer (OC) is one of the most prevalent types of cancer in women. Early and accurate diagnosis is crucial for the survival of the patients. However, the majority of women are diagnosed in advanced stages due to the lack of effective biomarkers and accurate screening tools. While previous studies sought a common biomarker, our study suggests different biomarkers for the premenopausal and postmenopausal populations. This can provide a new perspective in the search for novel predictors for the effective diagnosis of OC. Lack of explainability is one major limitation of current AI systems. The stochastic nature of the ML algorithms raises concerns about the reliability of the system as it is difficult to interpret the reasons behind the decisions. To increase the trustworthiness and accountability of the diagnostic system as well as to provide transparency and explanations behind the predictions, explainable AI has been incorporated into the ML framework. SHAP is employed to quantify the contributions of the selected biomarkers and determine the most discriminative features. A hybrid decision support system has been established that can eliminate the bottlenecks caused by the black-box nature of the ML algorithms providing a safe and trustworthy AI tool. The diagnostic accuracy obtained from the proposed system outperforms the existing methods as well as the state-of-the-art ROMA algorithm by a substantial margin which signifies its potential to be an effective tool in the differential diagnosis of OC.

Widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and machine learning (ML) models on the one hand and a number of crucial issues pertaining to them warrant the need for explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A key explainability question is: given this decision was made, what are the input features which contributed to the decision? Although a range of XAI approaches exist to tackle this problem, most of them have significant limitations. Heuristic XAI approaches suffer from the lack of quality guarantees, and often try to approximate Shapley values, which is not the same as explaining which features contribute to a decision. A recent alternative is so-called formal feature attribution (FFA), which defines feature importance as the fraction of formal abductive explanations (AXp's) containing the given feature. This measures feature importance from the view of formally reasoning about the model's behavior. It is challenging to compute FFA using its definition because that involves counting AXp's, although one can approximate it. Based on these results, this paper makes several contributions. First, it gives compelling evidence that computing FFA is intractable, even if the set of contrastive formal explanations (CXp's) is provided, by proving that the problem is #P-hard. Second, by using the duality between AXp's and CXp's, it proposes an efficient heuristic to switch from CXp enumeration to AXp enumeration on-the-fly resulting in an adaptive explanation enumeration algorithm effectively approximating FFA in an anytime fashion. Finally, experimental results obtained on a range of widely used datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed FFA approximation approach in terms of the error of FFA approximation as well as the number of explanations computed and their diversity given a fixed time limit.

Non-parametric machine learning models, such as random forests and gradient boosted trees, are frequently used to estimate house prices due to their predictive accuracy, but such methods are often limited in their ability to quantify prediction uncertainty. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a model-agnostic framework for constructing confidence sets around machine learning prediction models with minimal assumptions. However, due to the spatial dependencies observed in house prices, direct application of CP leads to confidence sets that are not calibrated everywhere, i.e., too large of confidence sets in certain geographical regions and too small in others. We survey various approaches to adjust the CP confidence set to account for this and demonstrate their performance on a data set from the housing market in Oslo, Norway. Our findings indicate that calibrating the confidence sets on a \textit{locally weighted} version of the non-conformity scores makes the coverage more consistently calibrated in different geographical regions. We also perform a simulation study on synthetically generated sale prices to empirically explore the performance of CP on housing market data under idealized conditions with known data-generating mechanisms.

Detecting Parkinson's Disease in its early stages using EEG data presents a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach, representing EEG data as a 15-variate series of bandpower and peak frequency values/coefficients. The hypothesis is that this representation captures essential information from the noisy EEG signal, improving disease detection. Statistical features extracted from this representation are utilised as input for interpretable machine learning models, specifically Decision Tree and AdaBoost classifiers. Our classification pipeline is deployed within our proposed framework which enables high-importance data types and brain regions for classification to be identified. Interestingly, our analysis reveals that while there is no significant regional importance, the N1 sleep data type exhibits statistically significant predictive power (p < 0.01) for early-stage Parkinson's Disease classification. AdaBoost classifiers trained on the N1 data type consistently outperform baseline models, achieving over 80% accuracy and recall. Our classification pipeline statistically significantly outperforms baseline models indicating that the model has acquired useful information. Paired with the interpretability (ability to view feature importance's) of our pipeline this enables us to generate meaningful insights into the classification of early stage Parkinson's with our N1 models. In Future, these models could be deployed in the real world - the results presented in this paper indicate that more than 3 in 4 early-stage Parkinson's cases would be captured with our pipeline.

Gradient boosting performs exceptionally in most prediction problems and scales well to large datasets. In this paper we prove that a ``lassoed'' gradient boosted tree algorithm with early stopping achieves faster than $n^{-1/4}$ L2 convergence in the large nonparametric space of cadlag functions of bounded sectional variation. This rate is remarkable because it does not depend on the dimension, sparsity, or smoothness. We use simulation and real data to confirm our theory and demonstrate empirical performance and scalability on par with standard boosting. Our convergence proofs are based on a novel, general theorem on early stopping with empirical loss minimizers of nested Donsker classes.

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the number of malware attacks that use encrypted HTTP traffic for self-propagation or communication. Antivirus software and firewalls typically will not have access to encryption keys, and therefore direct detection of malicious encrypted data is unlikely to succeed. However, previous work has shown that traffic analysis can provide indications of malicious intent, even in cases where the underlying data remains encrypted. In this paper, we apply three machine learning techniques to the problem of distinguishing malicious encrypted HTTP traffic from benign encrypted traffic and obtain results comparable to previous work. We then consider the problem of feature analysis in some detail. Previous work has often relied on human expertise to determine the most useful and informative features in this problem domain. We demonstrate that such feature-related information can be obtained directly from machine learning models themselves. We argue that such a machine learning based approach to feature analysis is preferable, as it is more reliable, and we can, for example, uncover relatively unintuitive interactions between features.