It was recently demonstrated that two machine-learning architectures, reservoir computing and time-delayed feed-forward neural networks, can be exploited for detecting the Earth's anomaly magnetic field immersed in overwhelming complex signals for magnetic navigation in a GPS-denied environment. The accuracy of the detected anomaly field corresponds to a positioning accuracy in the range of 10 to 40 meters. To increase the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of weak signal detection as well as to directly obtain the position information, we exploit the machine-learning model of random forests that combines the output of multiple decision trees to give optimal values of the physical quantities of interest. In particular, from time-series data gathered from the cockpit of a flying airplane during various maneuvering stages, where strong background complex signals are caused by other elements of the Earth's magnetic field and the fields produced by the electronic systems in the cockpit, we demonstrate that the random-forest algorithm performs remarkably well in detecting the weak anomaly field and in filtering the position of the aircraft. With the aid of the conventional inertial navigation system, the positioning error can be reduced to less than 10 meters. We also find that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, the classic Tolles-Lawson model for calibrating and removing the magnetic field generated by the body of the aircraft is not necessary and may even be detrimental for the success of the random-forest method.

We study the often overlooked phenomenon, first noted in Breiman (2001), that random forests appear to reduce bias compared to bagging. Motivated by an interesting paper by Mentch and Zhou (2020), where the authors argue that random forests reduce effective degrees of freedom and only outperform bagging ensembles in low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) settings, we explore how random forests can uncover patterns in the data missed by bagging. We empirically demonstrate that in the presence of such patterns, random forests reduce bias along with variance and increasingly outperform bagging ensembles when SNR is high. Our observations offer insights into the real-world success of random forests across a range of SNRs and enhance our understanding of the difference between random forests and bagging ensembles with respect to the randomization injected into each split. Our investigations also yield practical insights into the importance of tuning mtry in random forests.

While deep learning has enabled tremendous progress on text and image datasets, its superiority on tabular data is not clear. We contribute extensive benchmarks of standard and novel deep learning methods as well as tree-based models such as XGBoost and Random Forests, across a large number of datasets and hyperparameter combinations. We define a standard set of 45 datasets from varied domains with clear characteristics of tabular data and a benchmarking methodology accounting for both fitting models and finding good hyperparameters. Results show that tree-based models remain state-of-the-art on medium-sized data ( 10K samples) even without accounting for their superior speed. To understand this gap, we conduct an empirical investigation into the differing inductive biases of tree-based models and neural networks. This leads to a series of challenges which should guide researchers aiming to build tabular-specific neural network: 1. be robust to uninformative features, 2. preserve the orientation of the data, and 3. be able to easily learn irregular functions. To stimulate research on tabular architectures, we contribute a standard benchmark and raw data for baselines: every point of a 20 000 compute hours hyperparameter search for each learner.

This survey paper presents a comprehensive analysis of crime prediction methodologies, exploring the various techniques and technologies utilized in this area. The paper covers the statistical methods, machine learning algorithms, and deep learning techniques employed to analyze crime data, while also examining their effectiveness and limitations. We propose a methodological taxonomy that classifies crime prediction algorithms into specific techniques. This taxonomy is structured into four tiers, including methodology category, methodology sub-category, methodology techniques, and methodology sub-techniques. Empirical and experimental evaluations are provided to rank the different techniques. The empirical evaluation assesses the crime prediction techniques based on four criteria, while the experimental evaluation ranks the algorithms that employ the same sub-technique, the different sub-techniques that employ the same technique, the different techniques that employ the same methodology sub-category, the different methodology sub-categories within the same category, and the different methodology categories. The combination of methodological taxonomy, empirical evaluations, and experimental comparisons allows for a nuanced and comprehensive understanding of crime prediction algorithms, aiding researchers in making informed decisions. Finally, the paper provides a glimpse into the future of crime prediction techniques, highlighting potential advancements and opportunities for further research in this field

We combine random forest (RF) and conditional random field (CRF) into a new computational framework, called random forest random field (RF) 2. Inference of (RF) 2 uses the Swendsen-Wang cut algorithm, characterized by Metropolis-Hastings jumps. A jump from one state to another depends on the ratio of the proposal distributions, and on the ratio of the posterior distributions of the two states. Prior work typically resorts to a parametric estimation of these four distributions, and then computes their ratio. Our key idea is to instead directly estimate these ratios using RF. RF collects in leaf nodes of each decision tree the class histograms of training examples.

Gradient Boost Decision Trees (GBDT) is a powerful additive model based on tree ensembles. Its nature makes GBDT a black-box model even though there are multiple explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) models obtaining information by reinterpreting the model globally and locally. Each tree of the ensemble is a transparent model itself but the final outcome is the result of a sum of these trees and it is not easy to clarify. In this paper, a feature contribution method for GBDT is developed. The proposed method takes advantage of the GBDT architecture to calculate the contribution of each feature using the residue of each node. This algorithm allows to calculate the sequence of node decisions given a prediction. Theoretical proofs and multiple experiments have been carried out to demonstrate the performance of our method which is not only a local explicability model for the GBDT algorithm but also a unique option that reflects GBDTs internal behavior. The proposal is aligned to the contribution of characteristics having impact in some artificial intelligence problems such as ethical analysis of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and comply with the new European laws such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) about the right to explain and nondiscrimination.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean $R^2$ score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

In this paper, we present "Graph Feature Preprocessor", a software library for detecting typical money laundering and fraud patterns in financial transaction graphs in real time. These patterns are used to produce a rich set of transaction features for downstream machine learning training and inference tasks such as money laundering detection. We show that our enriched transaction features dramatically improve the prediction accuracy of gradient-boosting-based machine learning models. Our library exploits multicore parallelism, maintains a dynamic in-memory graph, and efficiently mines subgraph patterns in the incoming transaction stream, which enables it to be operated in a streaming manner. We evaluate our library using highly-imbalanced synthetic anti-money laundering (AML) and real-life Ethereum phishing datasets. In these datasets, the proportion of illicit transactions is very small, which makes the learning process challenging. Our solution, which combines our Graph Feature Preprocessor and gradient-boosting-based machine learning models, is able to detect these illicit transactions with higher minority-class F1 scores than standard graph neural networks. In addition, the end-to-end throughput rate of our solution executed on a multicore CPU outperforms the graph neural network baselines executed on a powerful V100 GPU. Overall, the combination of high accuracy, a high throughput rate, and low latency of our solution demonstrates the practical value of our library in real-world applications. Graph Feature Preprocessor has been integrated into IBM mainframe software products, namely "IBM Cloud Pak for Data on Z" and "AI Toolkit for IBM Z and LinuxONE".

Tree ensembles are one of the most widely used model classes. However, these models are susceptible to adversarial examples, i.e., slightly perturbed examples that elicit a misprediction. There has been significant research on designing approaches to construct such examples for tree ensembles. But this is a computationally challenging problem that often must be solved a large number of times (e.g., for all examples in a training set). This is compounded by the fact that current approaches attempt to find such examples from scratch. In contrast, we exploit the fact that multiple similar problems are being solved. Specifically, our approach exploits the insight that adversarial examples for tree ensembles tend to perturb a consistent but relatively small set of features. We show that we can quickly identify this set of features and use this knowledge to speedup constructing adversarial examples.

This study is based on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and aims to explore early detection and disease progression in Alzheimer's disease (AD). We employ innovative data preprocessing strategies, including the use of the random forest algorithm to fill missing data and the handling of outliers and invalid data, thereby fully mining and utilizing these limited data resources. Through Spearman correlation coefficient analysis, we identify some features strongly correlated with AD diagnosis. We build and test three machine learning models using these features: random forest, XGBoost, and support vector machine (SVM). Among them, the XGBoost model performs the best in terms of diagnostic performance, achieving an accuracy of 91%. Overall, this study successfully overcomes the challenge of missing data and provides valuable insights into early detection of Alzheimer's disease, demonstrating its unique research value and practical significance.