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 Ensemble Learning


Predictive Modeling for Breast Cancer Classification in the Context of Bangladeshi Patients: A Supervised Machine Learning Approach with Explainable AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Breast cancer has rapidly increased in prevalence in recent years, making it one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. Among all cancers, it is by far the most common. Diagnosing this illness manually requires significant time and expertise. Since detecting breast cancer is a time-consuming process, preventing its further spread can be aided by creating machine-based forecasts. Machine learning and Explainable AI are crucial in classification as they not only provide accurate predictions but also offer insights into how the model arrives at its decisions, aiding in the understanding and trustworthiness of the classification results. In this study, we evaluate and compare the classification accuracy, precision, recall, and F-1 scores of five different machine learning methods using a primary dataset (500 patients from Dhaka Medical College Hospital). Five different supervised machine learning techniques, including decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, naive bayes, and XGBoost, have been used to achieve optimal results on our dataset. Additionally, this study applied SHAP analysis to the XGBoost model to interpret the model's predictions and understand the impact of each feature on the model's output. We compared the accuracy with which several algorithms classified the data, as well as contrasted with other literature in this field. After final evaluation, this study found that XGBoost achieved the best model accuracy, which is 97%.


Site-specific Deterministic Temperature and Humidity Forecasts with Explainable and Reliable Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Site-specific weather forecasts are essential to accurate prediction of power demand and are consequently of great interest to energy operators. However, weather forecasts from current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models lack the fine-scale detail to capture all important characteristics of localised real-world sites. Instead they provide weather information representing a rectangular gridbox (usually kilometres in size). Even after post-processing and bias correction, area-averaged information is usually not optimal for specific sites. Prior work on site optimised forecasts has focused on linear methods, weighted consensus averaging, time-series methods, and others. Recent developments in machine learning (ML) have prompted increasing interest in applying ML as a novel approach towards this problem. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of optimising forecasts at sites by adopting the popular machine learning model gradient boosting decision tree, supported by the Python version of the XGBoost package. Regression trees have been trained with historical NWP and site observations as training data, aimed at predicting temperature and dew point at multiple site locations across Australia. We developed a working ML framework, named 'Multi-SiteBoost' and initial testing results show a significant improvement compared with gridded values from bias-corrected NWP models. The improvement from XGBoost is found to be comparable with non-ML methods reported in literature. With the insights provided by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), this study also tests various approaches to understand the ML predictions and increase the reliability of the forecasts generated by ML.


Explainable AI Integrated Feature Engineering for Wildfire Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wildfires present intricate challenges for prediction, necessitating the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques for effective modeling\cite{jain2020review}. In our research, we conducted a thorough assessment of various machine learning algorithms for both classification and regression tasks relevant to predicting wildfires. We found that for classifying different types or stages of wildfires, the XGBoost model outperformed others in terms of accuracy and robustness. Meanwhile, the Random Forest regression model showed superior results in predicting the extent of wildfire-affected areas, excelling in both prediction error and explained variance. Additionally, we developed a hybrid neural network model that integrates numerical data and image information for simultaneous classification and regression. To gain deeper insights into the decision-making processes of these models and identify key contributing features, we utilized eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, including TreeSHAP, LIME, Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), and Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM). These interpretability tools shed light on the significance and interplay of various features, highlighting the complex factors influencing wildfire predictions. Our study not only demonstrates the effectiveness of specific machine learning models in wildfire-related tasks but also underscores the critical role of model transparency and interpretability in environmental science applications.


Fair MP-BOOST: Fair and Interpretable Minipatch Boosting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ensemble methods, particularly boosting, have established themselves as highly effective and widely embraced machine learning techniques for tabular data. In this paper, we aim to leverage the robust predictive power of traditional boosting methods while enhancing fairness and interpretability. To achieve this, we develop Fair MP-Boost, a stochastic boosting scheme that balances fairness and accuracy by adaptively learning features and observations during training. Specifically, Fair MP-Boost sequentially samples small subsets of observations and features, termed minipatches (MP), according to adaptively learned feature and observation sampling probabilities. We devise these probabilities by combining loss functions, or by combining feature importance scores to address accuracy and fairness simultaneously. Hence, Fair MP-Boost prioritizes important and fair features along with challenging instances, to select the most relevant minipatches for learning. The learned probability distributions also yield intrinsic interpretations of feature importance and important observations in Fair MP-Boost. Through empirical evaluation of simulated and benchmark datasets, we showcase the interpretability, accuracy, and fairness of Fair MP-Boost.


C-XGBoost: A tree boosting model for causal effect estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal effect estimation aims at estimating the Average Treatment Effect as well as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect of a treatment to an outcome from the available data. This knowledge is important in many safety-critical domains, where it often needs to be extracted from observational data. In this work, we propose a new causal inference model, named C-XGBoost, for the prediction of potential outcomes. The motivation of our approach is to exploit the superiority of tree-based models for handling tabular data together with the notable property of causal inference neural network-based models to learn representations that are useful for estimating the outcome for both the treatment and non-treatment cases. The proposed model also inherits the considerable advantages of XGBoost model such as efficiently handling features with missing values requiring minimum preprocessing effort, as well as it is equipped with regularization techniques to avoid overfitting/bias. Furthermore, we propose a new loss function for efficiently training the proposed causal inference model. The experimental analysis, which is based on the performance profiles of Dolan and Mor{\'e} as well as on post-hoc and non-parametric statistical tests, provide strong evidence about the effectiveness of the proposed approach.


Evaluating Explanatory Capabilities of Machine Learning Models in Medical Diagnostics: A Human-in-the-Loop Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Explainable AI (XAI) [1] is a research field focused on making Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems in general, and Machine Learning (ML) systems in particular, more understandable to humans. Explainable AI offers several advantages, to name a few: it fosters confidence in the prediction of the model by making the decision-making process more transparent, promotes responsible AI development, aids in debugging and identifying issues, and allows auditing of AI models and checking if they adhere to regulatory standards. The inherent explainability of AI systems has not remained static but has changed considerably as a result of technological progress. In fact, explainability has become an increasingly difficult issue to tackle, as the internal functioning of AI systems has become less intelligible as they have become more complex [2]. Initially, symbolic AI models were explainable per se, e.g., rule-based expert systems could easily show to their users which rules they had followed to make a given decision, even though the rules can incorporate measures of uncertainty and imprecision as, for example, in fuzzy systems. These type of AI models are considered transparent, which means that the model itself is understandable [3], being understandability the characteristic of a model to make a human understand its function without any need for explaining its internal structure or the algorithmic means by which the model processes data internally [4].


Dealing with Imbalanced Classes in Bot-IoT Dataset

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rapidly spreading usage of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, a network intrusion detection system (NIDS) plays an important role in detecting and protecting various types of attacks in the IoT network. To evaluate the robustness of the NIDS in the IoT network, the existing work proposed a realistic botnet dataset in the IoT network (Bot-IoT dataset) and applied it to machine learning-based anomaly detection. This dataset contains imbalanced normal and attack packets because the number of normal packets is much smaller than that of attack ones. The nature of imbalanced data may make it difficult to identify the minority class correctly. In this thesis, to address the class imbalance problem in the Bot-IoT dataset, we propose a binary classification method with synthetic minority over-sampling techniques (SMOTE). The proposed classifier aims to detect attack packets and overcome the class imbalance problem using the SMOTE algorithm. Through numerical results, we demonstrate the proposed classifier's fundamental characteristics and the impact of imbalanced data on its performance.


Comprehensive evaluation of Mal-API-2019 dataset by machine learning in malware detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study conducts a thorough examination of malware detection using machine learning techniques, focusing on the evaluation of various classification models using the Mal-API-2019 dataset. The aim is to advance cybersecurity capabilities by identifying and mitigating threats more effectively. Both ensemble and non-ensemble machine learning methods, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Neural Networks, are explored. Special emphasis is placed on the importance of data pre-processing techniques, particularly TF-IDF representation and Principal Component Analysis, in improving model performance. Results indicate that ensemble methods, particularly Random Forest and XGBoost, exhibit superior accuracy, precision, and recall compared to others, highlighting their effectiveness in malware detection. The paper also discusses limitations and potential future directions, emphasizing the need for continuous adaptation to address the evolving nature of malware. This research contributes to ongoing discussions in cybersecurity and provides practical insights for developing more robust malware detection systems in the digital era.


Beyond Quantities: Machine Learning-based Characterization of Inequality in Infrastructure Quality Provision in Cities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The objective of this study is to characterize inequality in infrastructure quality across urban areas. While a growing of body of literature has recognized the importance of characterizing infrastructure inequality in cities and provided quantified metrics to inform urban development plans, the majority of the existing approaches focus primarily on measuring the quantity of infrastructure, assuming that more infrastructure is better. Also, the existing research focuses primarily on index-based approaches in which the status of infrastructure provision in urban areas is determined based on assumed subjective weights. The focus on infrastructure quantity and use of indices obtained from subjective weights has hindered the ability to properly examine infrastructure inequality as it pertains to urban inequality and environmental justice considerations. Recognizing this gap, we propose a machine learning-based approach in which infrastructure features that shape environmental hazard exposure are identified and we use the weights obtained by the model to calculate an infrastructure quality provision for spatial areas of cities and accordingly, quantify the extent of inequality in infrastructure quality. The implementation of the model in five metropolitan areas in the U.S. demonstrates the capability of the proposed approach in characterizing inequality in infrastructure quality and capturing city-specific differences in the weights of infrastructure features. The results also show that areas in which low-income populations reside have lower infrastructure quality provision, suggesting the lower infrastructure quality provision as a determinant of urban disparities. Accordingly, the proposed approach can be effectively used to inform integrated urban design strategies to promote infrastructure equity and environmental justice based on data-driven and machine intelligence-based insights.


Utilizing the LightGBM Algorithm for Operator User Credit Assessment Research

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Mobile Internet user credit assessment is an important way for communication operators to establish decisions and formulate measures, and it is also a guarantee for operators to obtain expected benefits. However, credit evaluation methods have long been monopolized by financial industries such as banks and credit. As supporters and providers of platform network technology and network resources, communication operators are also builders and maintainers of communication networks. Internet data improves the user's credit evaluation strategy. This paper uses the massive data provided by communication operators to carry out research on the operator's user credit evaluation model based on the fusion LightGBM algorithm. First, for the massive data related to user evaluation provided by operators, key features are extracted by data preprocessing and feature engineering methods, and a multi-dimensional feature set with statistical significance is constructed; then, linear regression, decision tree, LightGBM, and other machine learning algorithms build multiple basic models to find the best basic model; finally, integrates Averaging, Voting, Blending, Stacking and other integrated algorithms to refine multiple fusion models, and finally establish the most suitable fusion model for operator user evaluation.