At present, most of the prediction studies related to antagonistic event-group competitions focus on the prediction of competition results, and less on the prediction of the competition process, which can not provide real-time feedback of the athletes' state information in the actual competition, and thus can not analyze the changes of the competition situation. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes a prediction model based on Random Forest for the turning point of the antagonistic event-group. Firstly, the quantitative equation of competitive potential energy is proposed; Secondly, the quantitative value of competitive potential energy is obtained by using the dynamic combination of weights method, and the turning point of the competition situation of the antagonistic event-group is marked according to the quantitative time series graph; Finally, the random forest prediction model based on the optimisation of the KM-SMOTE algorithm and the grid search method is established. The experimental analysis shows that: The quantitative equation of competitive potential energy can effectively reflect the dynamic situation of the competition; The model can effectively predict the turning point of the competition situation of the antagonistic event-group, and the recall rate of the model in the test set is 86.13%; The model has certain significance for the future study of the competition situation of the antagonistic event-group.

Model explainability and interpretability are now Explainable AI (XAI) has a counterpart in analytical being perceived as desirable, if not required, features modeling which we refer to as model explainability. of data science and predictive analytics overall. Our We tackle the issue of model explainability in the objective here is to examine what these features may context of prediction models. We analyze a dataset of look like when applied to previous research we have loans from a credit card company using the following conducted in the area of econometric prediction and three steps: execute and compare four different predictive analytics [10]. We consider the domain of prediction methods, apply the best known Lending Club loan applications. For our dataset, we explainability techniques in the current literature to perform three different analyses: the model training sets to identify feature importance 1. Model Execution and Comparison. Run and (FI) (static case), and finally to cross-check whether compare four different prediction models on the the FI set holds up under "what if" prediction

In the healthcare sector, a consciousness surrounding data privacy and corresponding data protection regulations, as well as heterogeneous and non-harmonized data, pose huge challenges to large-scale data analysis. Moreover, clinical data often involves partially overlapping features, as some observations may be missing due to various reasons, such as differences in procedures, diagnostic tests, or other recorded patient history information across hospitals or institutes. To address the challenges posed by partially overlapping features and incomplete data in clinical datasets, a comprehensive approach is required. Particularly in the domain of medical data, promising outcomes are achieved by federated random forests whenever features align. However, for most standard algorithms, like random forest, it is essential that all data sets have identical parameters. Therefore, in this work the concept of federated random forest is adapted to a setting with partially overlapping features. Moreover, our research assesses the effectiveness of the newly developed federated random forest models for partially overlapping clinical data. For aggregating the federated, globally optimized model, only features available locally at each site can be used. We tackled two issues in federation: (i) the quantity of involved parties, (ii) the varying overlap of features. This evaluation was conducted across three clinical datasets. The federated random forest model even in cases where only a subset of features overlaps consistently demonstrates superior performance compared to its local counterpart. This holds true across various scenarios, including datasets with imbalanced classes. Consequently, federated random forests for partially overlapped data offer a promising solution to transcend barriers in collaborative research and corporate cooperation.

This work introduces the Supervised Expectation-Maximization Framework (SEMF), a versatile and model-agnostic framework that generates prediction intervals for datasets with complete or missing data. SEMF extends the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, traditionally used in unsupervised learning, to a supervised context, enabling it to extract latent representations for uncertainty estimation. The framework demonstrates robustness through extensive empirical evaluation across 11 tabular datasets, achieving$\unicode{x2013}$in some cases$\unicode{x2013}$narrower normalized prediction intervals and higher coverage than traditional quantile regression methods. Furthermore, SEMF integrates seamlessly with existing machine learning algorithms, such as gradient-boosted trees and neural networks, exemplifying its usefulness for real-world applications. The experimental results highlight SEMF's potential to advance state-of-the-art techniques in uncertainty quantification.

This study assessed the effectiveness of machine learning models in predicting poverty levels in the Philippines using five boosting algorithms: Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), CatBoosting (CatBoost), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). CatBoost emerged as the superior model and achieved the highest scores across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score at 91 percent, while XGBoost and GBM followed closely with 89 percent and 88 percent respectively. Additionally, the research examined the computational efficiency of these models to analyze the balance between training time, testing speed, and model size factors crucial for real-world applications. Despite its longer training duration, CatBoost demonstrated high testing efficiency. These results indicate that machine learning can aid in poverty prediction and in the development of targeted policy interventions. Future studies should focus on incorporating a wider variety of data to enhance the predictive accuracy and policy utility of these models.

Large-scale high spatial resolution aboveground biomass (AGB) maps play a crucial role in determining forest carbon stocks and how they are changing, which is instrumental in understanding the global carbon cycle, and implementing policy to mitigate climate change. The advent of the new space-borne LiDAR sensor, NASA's GEDI instrument, provides unparalleled possibilities for the accurate and unbiased estimation of forest AGB at high resolution, particularly in dense and tall forests, where Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and passive optical data exhibit saturation. However, GEDI is a sampling instrument, collecting dispersed footprints, and its data must be combined with that from other continuous cover satellites to create high-resolution maps, using local machine learning methods. In this study, we developed local models to estimate forest AGB from GEDI L2A data, as the models used to create GEDI L4 AGB data incorporated minimal field data from China. We then applied LightGBM and random forest regression to generate wall-to-wall AGB maps at 25 m resolution, using extensive GEDI footprints as well as Sentinel-1 data, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-2 optical data. Through a 5-fold cross-validation, LightGBM demonstrated a slightly better performance than Random Forest across two contrasting regions. However, in both regions, the computation speed of LightGBM is substantially faster than that of the random forest model, requiring roughly one-third of the time to compute on the same hardware. Through the validation against field data, the 25 m resolution AGB maps generated using the local models developed in this study exhibited higher accuracy compared to the GEDI L4B AGB data. We found in both regions an increase in error as slope increased. The trained models were tested on nearby but different regions and exhibited good performance.

In the contemporary film industry, accurately predicting a movie's earnings is paramount for maximizing profitability. This project aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting movie earnings based on input features like the movie name, the MPAA rating of the movie, the genre of the movie, the year of release of the movie, the IMDb Rating, the votes by the watchers, the director, the writer and the leading cast, the country of production of the movie, the budget of the movie, the production company and the runtime of the movie. Through a structured methodology involving data collection, preprocessing, analysis, model selection, evaluation, and improvement, a robust predictive model is constructed. Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest Regression, Bagging, XGBoosting and Gradient Boosting have been trained and tested. Model improvement strategies include hyperparameter tuning and cross-validation. The resulting model offers promising accuracy and generalization, facilitating informed decision-making in the film industry to maximize profits.

We present Collaborative Trees, a novel tree model designed for regression prediction, along with its bagging version, which aims to analyze complex statistical associations between features and uncover potential patterns inherent in the data. We decompose the mean decrease in impurity from the proposed tree model to analyze the additive and interaction effects of features on the response variable. Additionally, we introduce network diagrams to visually depict how each feature contributes additively to the response and how pairs of features contribute interaction effects. Through a detailed demonstration using an embryo growth dataset, we illustrate how the new statistical tools aid data analysis, both visually and numerically. Moreover, we delve into critical aspects of tree modeling, such as prediction performance, inference stability, and bias in feature importance measures, leveraging real datasets and simulation experiments for comprehensive discussions. On the theory side, we show that Collaborative Trees, built upon a ``sum of trees'' approach with our own innovative tree model regularization, exhibit characteristics akin to matching pursuit, under the assumption of high-dimensional independent binary input features (or one-hot feature groups). This newfound link sheds light on the superior capability of our tree model in estimating additive effects of features, a crucial factor for accurate interaction effect estimation.

This paper introduces the concept of Hyper-Trees and offers a new direction in applying tree-based models to time series data. Unlike conventional applications of decision trees that forecast time series directly, Hyper-Trees are designed to learn the parameters of a target time series model. Our framework leverages the gradient-based nature of boosted trees, which allows us to extend the concept of Hyper-Networks to Hyper-Trees and to induce a time-series inductive bias to tree models. By relating the parameters of a target time series model to features, Hyper-Trees address the issue of parameter non-stationarity and enable tree-based forecasts to extend beyond their training range. With our research, we aim to explore the effectiveness of Hyper-Trees across various forecasting scenarios and to extend the application of gradient boosted decision trees outside their conventional use in time series modeling.

Gradient boosting is a sequential ensemble method that fits a new base learner to the gradient of the remaining loss at each step. We propose a novel family of gradient boosting, Wasserstein gradient boosting, which fits a new base learner to an exactly or approximately available Wasserstein gradient of a loss functional on the space of probability distributions. Wasserstein gradient boosting returns a set of particles that approximates a target probability distribution assigned at each input. In probabilistic prediction, a parametric probability distribution is often specified on the space of output variables, and a point estimate of the output-distribution parameter is produced for each input by a model. Our main application of Wasserstein gradient boosting is a novel distributional estimate of the output-distribution parameter, which approximates the posterior distribution over the output-distribution parameter determined pointwise at each data point. We empirically demonstrate the superior performance of the probabilistic prediction by Wasserstein gradient boosting in comparison with various existing methods.