Random forests are classical ensemble algorithms that construct multiple randomized decision trees and aggregate their predictions using naive averaging. \citet{zhou2019deep} further propose a deep forest algorithm with multi-layer forests, which outperforms random forests in various tasks. The performance of deep forests is related to three hyperparameters in practice: depth, width, and tree size, but little has been known about its theoretical explanation. This work provides the first upper and lower bounds on the approximation complexity of deep forests concerning the three hyperparameters. Our results confirm the distinctive role of depth, which can exponentially enhance the expressiveness of deep forests compared with width and tree size. Experiments confirm the theoretical findings.

This research presents a comprehensive approach to predicting the duration of traffic incidents and classifying them as short-term or long-term across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. Leveraging a dataset that encompasses detailed records of traffic incidents, road network characteristics, and socio-economic indicators, we train and evaluate a variety of advanced machine learning models including Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost. The models are assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for regression tasks and F1 score for classification tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost and LightGBM outperform conventional models with XGBoost achieving the lowest RMSE of 33.7 for predicting incident duration and highest classification F1 score of 0.62 for a 30-minute duration threshold. For classification, the 30-minute threshold balances performance with 70.84% short-term duration classification accuracy and 62.72% long-term duration classification accuracy. Feature importance analysis, employing both tree split counts and SHAP values, identifies the number of affected lanes, traffic volume, and types of primary and secondary vehicles as the most influential features. The proposed methodology not only achieves high predictive accuracy but also provides stakeholders with vital insights into factors contributing to incident durations. These insights enable more informed decision-making for traffic management and response strategies. The code is available by the link: https://github.com/Future-Mobility-Lab/SydneyIncidents

Tree ensemble methods provide promising predictions with models difficult to interpret. Recent introduction of Shapley values for individualized feature contributions, accompanied with several fast computing algorithms for predicted values, shows intriguing results. However, individualizing coefficients of determination, aka $R^2$, for each feature is challenged by the underlying quadratic losses, although these coefficients allow us to comparatively assess single feature's contribution to tree ensembles. Here we propose an efficient algorithm, Q-SHAP, that reduces the computational complexity to polynomial time when calculating Shapley values related to quadratic losses. Our extensive simulation studies demonstrate that this approach not only enhances computational efficiency but also improves estimation accuracy of feature-specific coefficients of determination.

In machine learning ensembles predictions from multiple models are aggregated. Despite widespread use and strong performance of ensembles in applied problems little is known about the mathematical properties of aggregating models and associated consequences for safe, explainable use of such models. In this paper we prove a theorem that shows that any ensemble will exhibit at least one of the following forms of prediction instability. It will either ignore agreement among all underlying models, change its mind when none of the underlying models have done so, or be manipulable through inclusion or exclusion of options it would never actually predict. As a consequence, ensemble aggregation procedures will always need to balance the benefits of information use against the risk of these prediction instabilities. This analysis also sheds light on what specific forms of prediction instability to expect from particular ensemble algorithms; for example popular tree ensembles like random forest, or xgboost will violate basic, intuitive monotonicity and fairness properties.

Benchmarks that closely reflect downstream application scenarios are essential for the streamlined adoption of new research in tabular machine learning (ML). In this work, we examine existing tabular benchmarks and find two common characteristics of industry-grade tabular data that are underrepresented in the datasets available to the academic community. First, tabular data often changes over time in real-world deployment scenarios. This impacts model performance and requires time-based train and test splits for correct model evaluation. Yet, existing academic tabular datasets often lack timestamp metadata to enable such evaluation. Second, a considerable portion of datasets in production settings stem from extensive data acquisition and feature engineering pipelines. For each specific dataset, this can have a different impact on the absolute and relative number of predictive, uninformative, and correlated features, which in turn can affect model selection. To fill the aforementioned gaps in academic benchmarks, we introduce TabReD -- a collection of eight industry-grade tabular datasets covering a wide range of domains from finance to food delivery services. We assess a large number of tabular ML models in the feature-rich, temporally-evolving data setting facilitated by TabReD. We demonstrate that evaluation on time-based data splits leads to different methods ranking, compared to evaluation on random splits more common in academic benchmarks. Furthermore, on the TabReD datasets, MLP-like architectures and GBDT show the best results, while more sophisticated DL models are yet to prove their effectiveness.

Missing data is a prevalent issue that can significantly impair model performance and interpretability. This paper briefly summarizes the development of the field of missing data with respect to Explainable Artificial Intelligence and experimentally investigates the effects of various imputation methods on the calculation of Shapley values, a popular technique for interpreting complex machine learning models. We compare different imputation strategies and assess their impact on feature importance and interaction as determined by Shapley values. Moreover, we also theoretically analyze the effects of missing values on Shapley values. Importantly, our findings reveal that the choice of imputation method can introduce biases that could lead to changes in the Shapley values, thereby affecting the interpretability of the model. Moreover, and that a lower test prediction mean square error (MSE) may not imply a lower MSE in Shapley values and vice versa. Also, while Xgboost is a method that could handle missing data directly, using Xgboost directly on missing data can seriously affect interpretability compared to imputing the data before training Xgboost. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of imputation methods in the context of model interpretation, offering practical guidance for selecting appropriate techniques based on dataset characteristics and analysis objectives. The results underscore the importance of considering imputation effects to ensure robust and reliable insights from machine learning models.

Source Code Authorship Attribution (SCAA) is crucial for software classification because it provides insights into the origin and behavior of software. By accurately identifying the author or group behind a piece of code, experts can better understand the motivations and techniques of developers. In the cybersecurity era, this attribution helps trace the source of malicious software, identify patterns in the code that may indicate specific threat actors or groups, and ultimately enhance threat intelligence and mitigation strategies. This paper presents AuthAttLyzer-V2, a new source code feature extractor for SCAA, focusing on lexical, semantic, syntactic, and N-gram features. Our research explores author identification in C++ by examining 24,000 source code samples from 3,000 authors. Our methodology integrates Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost models, enhanced with SHAP for interpretability. The study demonstrates how ensemble models can effectively discern individual coding styles, offering insights into the unique attributes of code authorship. This approach is pivotal in understanding and interpreting complex patterns in authorship attribution, especially for malware classification.

In settings where only a budgeted amount of labeled data can be afforded, active learning seeks to devise query strategies for selecting the most informative data points to be labeled, aiming to enhance learning algorithms' efficiency and performance. Numerous such query strategies have been proposed and compared in the active learning literature. However, the community still lacks standardized benchmarks for comparing the performance of different query strategies. This particularly holds for the combination of query strategies with different learning algorithms into active learning pipelines and examining the impact of the learning algorithm choice. To close this gap, we propose ALPBench, which facilitates the specification, execution, and performance monitoring of active learning pipelines. It has built-in measures to ensure evaluations are done reproducibly, saving exact dataset splits and hyperparameter settings of used algorithms. In total, ALPBench consists of 86 real-world tabular classification datasets and 5 active learning settings, yielding 430 active learning problems. To demonstrate its usefulness and broad compatibility with various learning algorithms and query strategies, we conduct an exemplary study evaluating 9 query strategies paired with 8 learning algorithms in 2 different settings.

Automatic monitoring of calf behaviour is a promising way of assessing animal welfare from their first week on farms. This study aims to (i) develop machine learning models from accelerometer data to classify the main behaviours of pre-weaned calves and (ii) set up a digital tool for monitoring the behaviour of pre-weaned calves from the models' prediction. Thirty pre-weaned calves were equipped with a 3-D accelerometer attached to a neck-collar for two months and filmed simultaneously. The behaviours were annotated, resulting in 27.4 hours of observation aligned with the accelerometer data. The time-series were then split into 3 seconds windows. Two machine learning models were tuned using data from 80% of the calves: (i) a Random Forest model to classify between active and inactive behaviours using a set of 11 hand-craft features [model 1] and (ii) a RidgeClassifierCV model to classify between lying, running, drinking milk and other behaviours using ROCKET features [model 2]. The performance of the models was tested using data from the remaining 20% of the calves. Model 1 achieved a balanced accuracy of 0.92. Model 2 achieved a balanced accuracy of 0.84. Behavioural metrics such as daily activity ratio and episodes of running, lying, drinking milk, and other behaviours expressed over time were deduced from the predictions. All the development was finally embedded into a Python dashboard so that the individual calf metrics could be displayed directly from the raw accelerometer files.

The scope for the accurate calculation of the Loss Given Default (LGD) parameter is comprehensive in terms of financial data. In this research, we aim to explore methods for improving the approximation of realized LGD in conditions of limited access to the cash-flow data. We enhance the performance of the method which relies on the differences between exposure values (delta outstanding approach) by employing machine learning (ML) techniques. The research utilizes the data from the mortgage portfolio of one of the European countries and assumes a close resemblance to similar economic contexts. It incorporates non-financial variables and macroeconomic data related to the housing market, improving the accuracy of loss severity approximation. The proposed methodology attempts to mitigate the country-specific (related to the local legal) or portfolio-specific factors in aim to show the general advantage of applying ML techniques, rather than case-specific relation. We developed an XGBoost model that does not rely on cash-flow data yet enhances the accuracy of realized LGD estimation compared to results obtained with the delta outstanding approach. A novel aspect of our work is the detailed exploration of the delta outstanding approach and the methodology for addressing conditions of limited access to cash-flow data through machine learning models.