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 Ensemble Learning


A Margin-Maximizing Fine-Grained Ensemble Method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ensemble learning has achieved remarkable success in machine learning, but its reliance on numerous base learners limits its application in resource-constrained environments. This paper introduces an innovative "Margin-Maximizing Fine-Grained Ensemble Method" that achieves performance surpassing large-scale ensembles by meticulously optimizing a small number of learners and enhancing generalization capability. We propose a novel learnable confidence matrix, quantifying each classifier's confidence for each category, precisely capturing category-specific advantages of individual learners. Furthermore, we design a margin-based loss function, constructing a smooth and partially convex objective using the logsumexp technique. This approach improves optimization, eases convergence, and enables adaptive confidence allocation. Finally, we prove that the loss function is Lipschitz continuous, based on which we develop an efficient gradient optimization algorithm that simultaneously maximizes margins and dynamically adjusts learner weights. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional random forests using only one-tenth of the base learners and other state-of-the-art ensemble methods.


Bushfire Severity Modelling and Future Trend Prediction Across Australia: Integrating Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bushfire is one of the major natural disasters that cause huge losses to livelihoods and the environment. Understanding and analyzing the severity of bushfires is crucial for effective management and mitigation strategies, helping to prevent the extensive damage and loss caused by these natural disasters. This study presents an in-depth analysis of bushfire severity in Australia over the last twelve years, combining remote sensing data and machine learning techniques to predict future fire trends. By utilizing Landsat imagery and integrating spectral indices like NDVI, NBR, and Burn Index, along with topographical and climatic factors, we developed a robust predictive model using XGBoost. The model achieved high accuracy, 86.13%, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting fire severity across diverse Australian ecosystems. By analyzing historical trends and integrating factors such as population density and vegetation cover, we identify areas at high risk of future severe bushfires. Additionally, this research identifies key regions at risk, providing data-driven recommendations for targeted firefighting efforts. The findings contribute valuable insights into fire management strategies, enhancing resilience to future fire events in Australia. Also, we propose future work on developing a UAV-based swarm coordination model to enhance fire prediction in real-time and firefighting capabilities in the most vulnerable regions.


How to predict on-road air pollution based on street view images and machine learning: a quantitative analysis of the optimal strategy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

On-road air pollution exhibits substantial variability over short distances due to emission sources, dilution, and physicochemical processes. Integrating mobile monitoring data with street view images (SVIs) holds promise for predicting local air pollution. However, algorithms, sampling strategies, and image quality introduce extra errors due to a lack of reliable references that quantify their effects. To bridge this gap, we employed 314 taxis to monitor NO, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 dynamically and sampled corresponding SVIs, aiming to develop a reliable strategy. We extracted SVI features from ~ 382,000 streetscape images, which were collected at various angles (0{\deg}, 90{\deg}, 180{\deg}, 270{\deg}) and ranges (buffers with radii of 100m, 200m, 300m, 400m, 500m). Also, three machine learning algorithms alongside the linear land-used regression (LUR) model were experimented with to explore the influences of different algorithms. Four typical image quality issues were identified and discussed. Generally, machine learning methods outperform linear LUR for estimating the four pollutants, with the ranking: random forest > XGBoost > neural network > LUR. Compared to single-angle sampling, the averaging strategy is an effective method to avoid bias of insufficient feature capture. Therefore, the optimal sampling strategy is to obtain SVIs at a 100m radius buffer and extract features using the averaging strategy. This approach achieved estimation results for each aggregation location with absolute errors almost less than 2.5 {\mu}g/m^2 or ppb. Overexposure, blur, and underexposure led to image misjudgments and incorrect identifications, causing an overestimation of road features and underestimation of human-activity features, contributing to inaccurate NO, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10 estimation.


Machine Learning to Detect Anxiety Disorders from Error-Related Negativity and EEG Signals

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Anxiety is endemic to every person, with an occurrence rate of approximately 20% [World Health Organization, 2017]. Between 2020 and 2022, over one in six people (17.2% or 3.4 million people) aged 16 to 85 years experienced an anxiety disorder [Australian Bureau of Statistics]. Anxiety is caused by changes in the situation, nervousness and common symptoms, including sweating, trembling and excessive worrying, which affect a person's daily life. Anxiety disorders encompass a range of conditions, such as generalised anxiety disorder (GAD), panic disorder (PD), social anxiety disorder (SAD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), various phobia-related disorders, physical pain related protective behaviour [Li et al., 2020, 2021] and depression [Ghosh and Anwar, 2021]. Current clinical approaches for diagnosing these disorders often suffer from limitations in accuracy and objectivity, relying heavily on self-reports, patient histories and clinical observations. These methods can be subjective and may not capture the nuanced neural and behavioural patterns associated with anxiety, leading to potential misdiagnoses. Recent research has shown promising results in using machine learning techniques to detect anxiety through physiological analysis [Abd-Alrazaq et al., 2023], such as respiration, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmography (PPG), electrodermal response (EDA) and electroencephalography (EEG), to identify patterns associated with anxiety states [Abd-Alrazaq et al., 2023].


Evaluating the Efficacy of Instance Incremental vs. Batch Learning in Delayed Label Environments: An Empirical Study on Tabular Data Streaming for Fraud Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world tabular learning production scenarios typically involve evolving data streams, where data arrives continuously and its distribution may change over time. In such a setting, most studies in the literature regarding supervised learning favor the use of instance incremental algorithms due to their ability to adapt to changes in the data distribution. Another significant reason for choosing these algorithms is \textit{avoid storing observations in memory} as commonly done in batch incremental settings. However, the design of instance incremental algorithms often assumes immediate availability of labels, which is an optimistic assumption. In many real-world scenarios, such as fraud detection or credit scoring, labels may be delayed. Consequently, batch incremental algorithms are widely used in many real-world tasks. This raises an important question: "In delayed settings, is instance incremental learning the best option regarding predictive performance and computational efficiency?" Unfortunately, this question has not been studied in depth, probably due to the scarcity of real datasets containing delayed information. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation and analysis of this question using a real-world fraud detection problem and commonly used generated datasets. Our findings indicate that instance incremental learning is not the superior option, considering on one side state-of-the-art models such as Adaptive Random Forest (ARF) and other side batch learning models such as XGBoost. Additionally, when considering the interpretability of the learning systems, batch incremental solutions tend to be favored. Code: \url{https://github.com/anselmeamekoe/DelayedLabelStream}


Training Gradient Boosted Decision Trees on Tabular Data Containing Label Noise for Classification Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Label noise refers to the phenomenon where instances in a data set are assigned to the wrong label. Label noise is harmful to classifier performance, increases model complexity and impairs feature selection. Addressing label noise is crucial, yet current research primarily focuses on image and text data using deep neural networks. This leaves a gap in the study of tabular data and gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs), the leading algorithm for tabular data. Different methods have already been developed which either try to filter label noise, model label noise while simultaneously training a classifier or use learning algorithms which remain effective even if label noise is present. This study aims to further investigate the effects of label noise on gradient-boosted decision trees and methods to mitigate those effects. Through comprehensive experiments and analysis, the implemented methods demonstrate state-of-the-art noise detection performance on the Adult dataset and achieve the highest classification precision and recall on the Adult and Breast Cancer datasets, respectively. In summary, this paper enhances the understanding of the impact of label noise on GBDTs and lays the groundwork for future research in noise detection and correction methods.


Randomized Spline Trees for Functional Data Classification: Theory and Application to Environmental Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Functional data analysis (FDA) and ensemble learning can be powerful tools for analyzing complex environmental time series. Recent literature has highlighted the key role of diversity in enhancing accuracy and reducing variance in ensemble methods.This paper introduces Randomized Spline Trees (RST), a novel algorithm that bridges these two approaches by incorporating randomized functional representations into the Random Forest framework. RST generates diverse functional representations of input data using randomized B-spline parameters, creating an ensemble of decision trees trained on these varied representations. We provide a theoretical analysis of how this functional diversity contributes to reducing generalization error and present empirical evaluations on six environmental time series classification tasks from the UCR Time Series Archive. Results show that RST variants outperform standard Random Forests and Gradient Boosting on most datasets, improving classification accuracy by up to 14\%. The success of RST demonstrates the potential of adaptive functional representations in capturing complex temporal patterns in environmental data. This work contributes to the growing field of machine learning techniques focused on functional data and opens new avenues for research in environmental time series analysis.


Revisiting Static Feature-Based Android Malware Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The increasing reliance on machine learning (ML) in computer security, particularly for malware classification, has driven significant advancements. However, the replicability and reproducibility of these results are often overlooked, leading to challenges in verifying research findings. This paper highlights critical pitfalls that undermine the validity of ML research in Android malware detection, focusing on dataset and methodological issues. We comprehensively analyze Android malware detection using two datasets and assess offline and continual learning settings with six widely used ML models. Our study reveals that when properly tuned, simpler baseline methods can often outperform more complex models. To address reproducibility challenges, we propose solutions for improving datasets and methodological practices, enabling fairer model comparisons. Additionally, we open-source our code to facilitate malware analysis, making it extensible for new models and datasets. Our paper aims to support future research in Android malware detection and other security domains, enhancing the reliability and reproducibility of published results.


Advancing Machine Learning for Stellar Activity and Exoplanet Period Rotation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study applied machine learning models to estimate stellar rotation periods from corrected light curve data obtained by the NASA Kepler mission. Traditional methods often struggle to estimate rotation periods accurately due to noise and variability in the light curve data. The workflow involved using initial period estimates from the LS-Periodogram and Transit Least Squares techniques, followed by splitting the data into training, validation, and testing sets. We employed several machine learning algorithms, including Decision Tree, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Gradient Boosting, and also utilized a Voting Ensemble approach to improve prediction accuracy and robustness. The analysis included data from multiple Kepler IDs, providing detailed metrics on orbital periods and planet radii. Performance evaluation showed that the Voting Ensemble model yielded the most accurate results, with an RMSE approximately 50\% lower than the Decision Tree model and 17\% better than the K-Nearest Neighbors model. The Random Forest model performed comparably to the Voting Ensemble, indicating high accuracy. In contrast, the Gradient Boosting model exhibited a worse RMSE compared to the other approaches. Comparisons of the predicted rotation periods to the photometric reference periods showed close alignment, suggesting the machine learning models achieved high prediction accuracy. The results indicate that machine learning, particularly ensemble methods, can effectively solve the problem of accurately estimating stellar rotation periods, with significant implications for advancing the study of exoplanets and stellar astrophysics.


HULLMI: Human vs LLM identification with explainability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As LLMs become increasingly proficient at producing human-like responses, there has been a rise of academic and industrial pursuits dedicated to flagging a given piece of text as "human" or "AI". Most of these pursuits involve modern NLP detectors like T5-Sentinel and RoBERTa-Sentinel, without paying too much attention to issues of interpretability and explainability of these models. In our study, we provide a comprehensive analysis that shows that traditional ML models (Naive-Bayes,MLP, Random Forests, XGBoost) perform as well as modern NLP detectors, in human vs AI text detection. We achieve this by implementing a robust testing procedure on diverse datasets, including curated corpora and real-world samples. Subsequently, by employing the explainable AI technique LIME, we uncover parts of the input that contribute most to the prediction of each model, providing insights into the detection process. Our study contributes to the growing need for developing production-level LLM detection tools, which can leverage a wide range of traditional as well as modern NLP detectors we propose. Finally, the LIME techniques we demonstrate also have the potential to equip these detection tools with interpretability analysis features, making them more reliable and trustworthy in various domains like education, healthcare, and media.