In recent years, censored quantile regression has enjoyed an increasing popularity for survival analysis while many existing works rely on linearity assumptions. In this work, we propose a Global Censored Quantile Random Forest (GCQRF) for predicting a conditional quantile process on data subject to right censoring, a forest-based flexible, competitive method able to capture complex nonlinear relationships. Taking into account the randomness in trees and connecting the proposed method to a randomized incomplete infinite degree U-process (IDUP), we quantify the prediction process' variation without assuming an infinite forest and establish its weak convergence. Moreover, feature importance ranking measures based on out-of-sample predictive accuracy are proposed. We demonstrate the superior predictive accuracy of the proposed method over a number of existing alternatives and illustrate the use of the proposed importance ranking measures on both simulated and real data.

It is known that the current graph neural networks (GNNs) are difficult to make themselves deep due to the problem known as over-smoothing. Multi-scale GNNs are a promising approach for mitigating the over-smoothing problem. However, there is little explanation of why it works empirically from the viewpoint of learning theory. In this study, we derive the optimization and generalization guarantees of transductive learning algorithms that include multi-scale GNNs. Using the boosting theory, we prove the convergence of the training error under weak learning-type conditions.

We extend the theory of boosting for regression problems to the online learning setting. Generalizing from the batch setting for boosting, the notion of a weak learning algorithm is modeled as an online learning algorithm with linear loss functions that competes with a base class of regression functions, while a strong learning algorithm is an online learning algorithm with smooth convex loss functions that competes with a larger class of regression functions. Our main result is an online gradient boosting algorithm which converts a weak online learning algorithm into a strong one where the larger class of functions is the linear span of the base class. We also give a simpler boosting algorithm that converts a weak online learning algorithm into a strong one where the larger class of functions is the convex hull of the base class, and prove its optimality.

We study the problem of efficient adversarial attacks on tree based ensembles such as gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs) and random forests (RFs). Since these models are non-continuous step functions and gradient does not exist, most existing efficient adversarial attacks are not applicable. Although decision-based black-box attacks can be applied, they cannot utilize the special structure of trees. In our work, we transform the attack problem into a discrete search problem specially designed for tree ensembles, where the goal is to find a valid leaf tuple'' that leads to mis-classification while having the shortest distance to the original input. With this formulation, we show that a simple yet effective greedy algorithm can be applied to iteratively optimize the adversarial example by moving the leaf tuple to its neighborhood within hamming distance 1. Experimental results on several large GBDT and RF models with up to hundreds of trees demonstrate that our method can be thousands of times faster than the previous mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) based approach, while also providing smaller (better) adversarial examples than decision-based black-box attacks on general \ell_p ( p 1, 2, \infty) norm perturbations.

Medical diagnosis is a crucial task in the medical field, in terms of providing accurate classification and respective treatments. Having near-precise decisions based on correct diagnosis can affect a patient's life itself, and may extremely result in a catastrophe if not classified correctly. Several traditional machine learning (ML), such as support vector machines (SVMs) and logistic regression, and state-of-the-art tabular deep learning (DL) methods, including TabNet and TabTransformer, have been proposed and used over tabular medical datasets. Additionally, due to the superior performances, lower computational costs, and easier optimization over different tasks, ensemble methods have been used in the field more recently. They offer a powerful alternative in terms of providing successful medical decision-making processes in several diagnosis tasks. In this study, we investigated the benefits of ensemble methods, especially the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) algorithms in medical classification tasks over tabular data, focusing on XGBoost, CatBoost, and LightGBM. The experiments demonstrate that GBDT methods outperform traditional ML and deep neural network architectures and have the highest average rank over several benchmark tabular medical diagnosis datasets. Furthermore, they require much less computational power compared to DL models, creating the optimal methodology in terms of high performance and lower complexity.

We study the robustness verification problem of tree based models, including random forest (RF) and gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT). Formal robustness verification of decision tree ensembles involves finding the exact minimal adversarial perturbation or a guaranteed lower bound of it. Existing approaches cast this verification problem into a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem, which finds the minimal adversarial distortion in exponential time so is impractical for large ensembles. Although this verification problem is NP-complete in general, we give a more precise complexity characterization. We show that there is a simple linear time algorithm for verifying a single tree, and for tree ensembles the verification problem can be cast as a max-clique problem on a multi-partite boxicity graph.

Modern gradient boosting software frameworks, such as XGBoost and LightGBM, implement Newton descent in a functional space. At each boosting iteration, their goal is to find the base hypothesis, selected from some base hypothesis class, that is closest to the Newton descent direction in a Euclidean sense. Typically, the base hypothesis class is fixed to be all binary decision trees up to a given depth. In this work, we study a Heterogeneous Newton Boosting Machine (HNBM) in which the base hypothesis class may vary across boosting iterations. Specifically, at each boosting iteration, the base hypothesis class is chosen, from a fixed set of subclasses, by sampling from a probability distribution. We derive a global linear convergence rate for the HNBM under certain assumptions, and show that it agrees with existing rates for Newton's method when the Newton direction can be perfectly fitted by the base hypothesis at each boosting iteration.

Random forests have been one of the successful ensemble algorithms in machine learning. The basic idea is to construct a large number of random trees individually and make prediction based on an average of their predictions. The great successes have attracted much attention on the consistency of random forests, mostly focusing on regression. This work takes one step towards convergence rates of random forests for classification. We present the first finite-sample rate O(n {-1/(8d 2)}) on the convergence of pure random forests for classification, which can be improved to be of O(n {-1/(3.87d

Automated machine learning (AutoML) can produce complex model ensembles by stacking, bagging, and boosting many individual models like trees, deep networks, and nearest neighbor estimators. While highly accurate, the resulting predictors are large, slow, and opaque as compared to their constituents. To improve the deployment of AutoML on tabular data, we propose FAST-DAD to distill arbitrarily-complex ensemble predictors into individual models like boosted trees, random forests, and deep networks. At the heart of our approach is a data augmentation strategy based on Gibbs sampling from a self-attention pseudolikelihood estimator. Across 30 datasets spanning regression and binary/multiclass classification tasks, FAST-DAD distillation produces significantly better individual models than one obtains through standard training on the original data.

Tree ensembles such as Random Forests have achieved impressive empirical success across a wide variety of applications. To understand how these models make predictions, people routinely turn to feature importance measures calculated from tree ensembles. It has long been known that Mean Decrease Impurity (MDI), one of the most widely used measures of feature importance, incorrectly assigns high importance to noisy features, leading to systematic bias in feature selection. In this paper, we address the feature selection bias of MDI from both theoretical and methodological perspectives. Based on the original definition of MDI by Breiman et al. \cite{Breiman1984} for a single tree, we derive a tight non-asymptotic bound on the expected bias of MDI importance of noisy features, showing that deep trees have higher (expected) feature selection bias than shallow ones.