Ensemble Learning
Data-Driven Energy Estimation for Virtual Servers Using Combined System Metrics and Machine Learning
This paper presents a machine learning-based approach to estimate the energy consumption of virtual servers without access to physical power measurement interfaces. Using resource utilization metrics collected from guest virtual machines, we train a Gradient Boosting Regressor to predict energy consumption measured via RAPL on the host. We demonstrate, for the first time, guest-only resource-based energy estimation without privileged host access with experiments across diverse workloads, achieving high predictive accuracy and variance explained ($0.90 \leq R^2 \leq 0.97$), indicating the feasibility of guest-side energy estimation. This approach can enable energy-aware scheduling, cost optimization and physical host independent energy estimates in virtualized environments. Our approach addresses a critical gap in virtualized environments (e.g. cloud) where direct energy measurement is infeasible.
Distinguishing Startle from Surprise Events Based on Physiological Signals
Sharma, Mansi, Duchevet, Alexandre, Daiber, Florian, Imbert, Jean-Paul, Rekrut, Maurice
Unexpected events can impair attention and delay decision-making, posing serious safety risks in high-risk environments such as aviation. In particular, reactions like startle and surprise can impact pilot performance in different ways, yet are often hard to distinguish in practice. Existing research has largely studied these reactions separately, with limited focus on their combined effects or how to differentiate them using physiological data. In this work, we address this gap by distinguishing between startle and surprise events based on physiological signals using machine learning and multi-modal fusion strategies. Our results demonstrate that these events can be reliably predicted, achieving a highest mean accuracy of 85.7% with SVM and Late Fusion. To further validate the robustness of our model, we extended the evaluation to include a baseline condition, successfully differentiating between Startle, Surprise, and Baseline states with a highest mean accuracy of 74.9% with XGBoost and Late Fusion.
Identifying Key Features for Establishing Sustainable Agro-Tourism Centre: A Data Driven Approach
Gadakh, Alka, Kumbhar, Vidya, Khosla, Sonal, Karunendra, Kumar
Agro-tourism serves as a strategic economic model designed to facilitate rural development by diversifying income streams for local communities like farmers while promoting the conservation of indigenous cultural heritage and traditional agricultural practices. As a very booming subdomain of tourism, there is a need to study the strategies for the growth of Agro-tourism in detail. The current study has identified the important indicators for the growth and enhancement of agro-tourism. The study is conducted in two phases: identification of the important indicators through a comprehensive literature review and in the second phase state-of-the-art techniques were used to identify the important indicators for the growth of agro-tourism. The indicators are also called features synonymously, the machine learning models for feature selection were applied and it was observed that the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method combined with, the machine Learning Classifiers such as Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF) Tree, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST) models were used to suggest the growth of the agro-tourism. The results show that with the LASSO method, LR model gives the highest classification accuracy of 98% in 70-30% train-test data followed by RF with 95% accuracy. Similarly, in the 80-20% train-test data LR maintains the highest accuracy at 99%, while DT and XGBoost follow with 97% accuracy.
Predicting person-level injury severity using crash narratives: A balanced approach with roadway classification and natural language process techniques
Majidi, Mohammad Zana, Karimi, Sajjad, Wang, Teng, Kluger, Robert, Souleyrette, Reginald
Predicting injuries and fatalities in traffic crashes plays a critical role in enhancing road safety, improving emergency response, and guiding public health interventions. This study investigates the added value of unstructured crash narratives (written by police officers at the scene) when combined with structured crash data to predict injury severity. Two widely used Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) and Word2Vec, were employed to extract semantic meaning from the narratives, and their effectiveness was compared. To address the challenge of class imbalance, a K-Nearest Neighbors-based oversampling method was applied to the training data prior to modeling. The dataset consists of crash records from Kentucky spanning 2019 to 2023. To account for roadway heterogeneity, three road classification schemes were used: (1) eight detailed functional classes (e.g., Urban Two-Lane, Rural Interstate, Urban Multilane Divided), (2) four broader paired categories (e.g., Urban vs. Rural, Freeway vs. Non-Freeway), and (3) a unified dataset without classification. A total of 102 machine learning models were developed by combining structured features and narrative-based features using the two NLP techniques alongside three ensemble algorithms: XGBoost, Random Forest, and AdaBoost. Results demonstrate that models incorporating narrative data consistently outperform those relying solely on structured data. Among all combinations, TF-IDF coupled with XGBoost yielded the most accurate predictions in most subgroups. The findings highlight the power of integrating textual and structured crash information to enhance person-level injury prediction. This work offers a practical and adaptable framework for transportation safety professionals to improve crash severity modeling, guide policy decisions, and design more effective countermeasures.
SynDelay: A Synthetic Dataset for Delivery Delay Prediction
Xu, Liming, Long, Yunbo, Brintrup, Alexandra
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming supply chain management, yet progress in predictive tasks -- such as delivery delay prediction -- remains constrained by the scarcity of high-quality, openly available datasets. Existing datasets are often proprietary, small, or inconsistently maintained, hindering reproducibility and benchmarking. We present SynDelay, a synthetic dataset designed for delivery delay prediction. Generated using an advanced generative model trained on real-world data, SynDelay preserves realistic delivery patterns while ensuring privacy. Although not entirely free of noise or inconsistencies, it provides a challenging and practical testbed for advancing predictive modelling. To support adoption, we provide baseline results and evaluation metrics as initial benchmarks, serving as reference points rather than state-of-the-art claims. SynDelay is publicly available through the Supply Chain Data Hub, an open initiative promoting dataset sharing and benchmarking in supply chain AI. We encourage the community to contribute datasets, models, and evaluation practices to advance research in this area. All code is openly accessible at https://supplychaindatahub.org.
Graph Transformer-Based Flood Susceptibility Mapping: Application to the French Riviera and Railway Infrastructure Under Climate Change
Vemula, Sreenath, Gatti, Filippo, Jehel, Pierre
Increasing flood frequency and severity due to climate change threatens infrastructure and demands improved susceptibility mapping techniques. While traditional machine learning (ML) approaches are widely used, they struggle to capture spatial dependencies and poor boundary delineation between susceptibility classes. This study introduces the first application of a graph transformer (GT) architecture for flood susceptibility mapping to the flood-prone French Riviera (e.g., 2020 Storm Alex) using topography, hydrology, geography, and environmental data. GT incorporates watershed topology using Laplacian positional encoders (PEs) and attention mechanisms. The developed GT model has an AUC-ROC (0.9739), slightly lower than XGBoost (0.9853). However, the GT model demonstrated better clustering and delineation with a higher Moran's I value (0.6119) compared to the random forest (0.5775) and XGBoost (0.5311) with p-value lower than 0.0001. Feature importance revealed a striking consistency across models, with elevation, slope, distance to channel, and convergence index being the critical factors. Dimensionality reduction on Laplacian PEs revealed partial clusters, indicating they could capture spatial information; however, their importance was lower than flood factors. Since climate and land use changes aggravate flood risk, susceptibility maps are developed for the 2050 year under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and railway track vulnerability is assessed. All RCP scenarios revealed increased area across susceptibility classes, except for the very low category. RCP 8.5 projections indicate that 17.46% of the watershed area and 54% of railway length fall within very-high susceptible zones, compared to 6.19% and 35.61%, respectively, under current conditions. The developed maps can be integrated into a multi-hazard framework.
Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) in Campylobacter, a Foodborne Pathogen, and Cost Burden Analysis Using Machine Learning
Mishra, Shubham, Han, The Anh, Lopes, Bruno Silvester, Ghareeb, Shatha, Shamszaman, Zia Ush
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a significant public health and economic challenge, increasing treatment costs and reducing antibiotic effectiveness. This study employs machine learning to analyze genomic and epidemiological data from the public databases for molecular typing and microbial genome diversity (PubMLST), incorporating data from UK government-supported AMR surveillance by the Food Standards Agency and Food Standards Scotland. We identify AMR patterns in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolates collected in the UK from 2001 to 2017. The research integrates whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data, epidemiological metadata, and economic projections to identify key resistance determinants and forecast future resistance trends and healthcare costs. We investigate gyrA mutations for fluoroquinolone resistance and the tet(O) gene for tetracycline resistance, training a Random Forest model validated with bootstrap resampling (1,000 samples, 95% confidence intervals), achieving 74% accuracy in predicting AMR phenotypes. Time-series forecasting models (SARIMA, SIR, and Prophet) predict a rise in campylobacteriosis cases, potentially exceeding 130 cases per 100,000 people by 2050, with an economic burden projected to surpass 1.9 billion GBP annually if left unchecked. An enhanced Random Forest system, analyzing 6,683 isolates, refines predictions by incorporating temporal patterns, uncertainty estimation, and resistance trend modeling, indicating sustained high beta-lactam resistance, increasing fluoroquinolone resistance, and fluctuating tetracycline resistance.
Predicting NCAP Safety Ratings: An Analysis of Vehicle Characteristics and ADAS Features Using Machine Learning
Kunwar, Raunak, LeBoulluec, Aera Kim
Vehicle safety assessment is crucial for consumer information and regulatory oversight. The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) assigns standardized safety ratings, which traditionally emphasize passive safety measures but now include active safety technologies such as Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS). It is crucial to understand how these various systems interact empirically. This study explores whether particular ADAS features like Forward Collision Warning, Lane Departure Warning, Crash Imminent Braking, and Blind Spot Detection, together with established vehicle attributes (e.g., Curb Weight, Model Year, Vehicle Type, Drive Train), can reliably predict a vehicle's likelihood of earning the highest (5-star) overall NCAP rating. Using a publicly available dataset derived from NCAP reports that contain approximately 5,128 vehicle variants spanning model years 2011-2025, we compared four different machine learning models: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and support vector classifier (SVC) using a 5-fold stratified cross-validation approach. The two best-performing algorithms (random forest and gradient boost) were hyperparameter optimized using RandomizedSearchCV. Analysis of feature importance showed that basic vehicle characteristics, specifically curb weight and model year, dominated predictive capability, contributing more than 55% of the feature relevance of the Random Forest model. However, the inclusion of ADAS features also provided meaningful predictive contributions. The optimized Random Forest model achieved robust results on a held-out test set, with an accuracy of 89.18% and a ROC AUC of 0.9586. This research reveals the use of machine learning to analyze large-scale NCAP data and highlights the combined predictive importance of both established vehicle parameters and modern ADAS features to achieve top safety ratings.
Evaluating the stability of model explanations in instance-dependent cost-sensitive credit scoring
Ballegeer, Matteo, Bogaert, Matthias, Benoit, Dries F.
Instance-dependent cost-sensitive (IDCS) classifiers offer a promising approach to improving cost-efficiency in credit scoring by tailoring loss functions to instance-specific costs. However, the impact of such loss functions on the stability of model explanations remains unexplored in literature, despite increasing regulatory demands for transparency. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the stability of Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) when applied to IDCS models. Using four publicly available credit scoring datasets, we first assess the discriminatory power and cost-efficiency of IDCS classifiers, introducing a novel metric to enhance cross-dataset comparability. We then investigate the stability of SHAP and LIME feature importance rankings under varying degrees of class imbalance through controlled resampling. Our results reveal that while IDCS classifiers improve cost-efficiency, they produce significantly less stable explanations compared to traditional models, particularly as class imbalance increases, highlighting a critical trade-off between cost optimization and interpretability in credit scoring. Amid increasing regulatory scrutiny on explainability, this research underscores the pressing need to address stability issues in IDCS classifiers to ensure that their cost advantages are not undermined by unstable or untrustworthy explanations.
Cross-Domain Malware Detection via Probability-Level Fusion of Lightweight Gradient Boosting Models
The escalating sophistication of malware necessitates robust detection mechanisms that generalize across diverse data sources. Traditional single-dataset models struggle with cross-domain generalization and often incur high computational costs. This paper presents a novel, lightweight framework for malware detection that employs probability-level fusion across three distinct datasets: EMBER (static features), API Call Sequences (behavioral features), and CIC Obfuscated Memory (memory patterns). Our method trains individual LightGBM classifiers on each dataset, selects top predictive features to ensure efficiency, and fuses their prediction probabilities using optimized weights determined via grid search. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our fusion approach achieves a macro F1-score of 0.823 on a cross-domain validation set, significantly outperforming individual models and providing superior generalization. The framework maintains low computational overhead, making it suitable for real-time deployment, and all code and data are provided for full reproducibility.