During the directional drilling, a bit may sometimes go to a nonproductive rock layer due to the gap about 20 m between the bit and high-fidelity rock type sensors. The only way to detect the lithotype changes in time is the usage of Measurements While Drilling (MWD) data. However, there are no mathematical modeling approaches that reconstruct the rock type based on MWD data with high accuracy. In this article, we present a data-driven procedure that utilizes MWD data for quick detection of changes in rock type. We propose the approach that combines traditional machine learning based on the solution of the rock type classification problem with change detection procedures rarely used before in Oil & Gas industry. The data come from a newly developed oilfield in the North of Western Siberia. The results suggest that we can detect a significant part of changes in rock type reducing the change detection delay from 20 to 2.6 m and the number of false positive alarms from 71 to 7 per well.

Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) is an extremely powerful supervised learning algorithm that is widely used in practice. GBM routinely features as a leading algorithm in machine learning competitions such as Kaggle and the KDDCup. In this work, we propose Accelerated Gradient Boosting Machine (AGBM) by incorporating Nesterov's acceleration techniques into the design of GBM. The difficulty in accelerating GBM lies in the fact that weak (inexact) learners are commonly used, and therefore the errors can accumulate in the momentum term. To overcome it, we design a "corrected pseudo residual" and fit best weak learner to this corrected pseudo residual, in order to perform the z-update. Thus, we are able to derive novel computational guarantees for AGBM. This is the first GBM type of algorithm with theoretically-justified accelerated convergence rate. Finally we demonstrate with a number of numerical experiments the effectiveness of AGBM over conventional GBM in obtaining a model with good training and/or testing data fidelity.

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that features a distributed, decentralized and trustworthy mechanism, which has made Bitcoin a popular global transaction platform. The transaction efficiency among nations and the privacy benefiting from address anonymity of the Bitcoin network have attracted many activities such as payments, investments, gambling, and even money laundering in the past decade. Unfortunately, some criminal behaviors which took advantage of this platform were not identified. This has discouraged many governments to support cryptocurrency. Thus, the capability to identify criminal addresses becomes an important issue in the cryptocurrency network. In this paper, we propose new features in addition to those commonly used in the literature to build a classification model for detecting abnormality of Bitcoin network addresses. These features include various high orders of moments of transaction time (represented by block height) which summarizes the transaction history in an efficient way. The extracted features are trained by supervised machine learning methods on a labeling category data set. The experimental evaluation shows that these features have improved the performance of Bitcoin address classification significantly. We evaluate the results under eight classifiers and achieve the highest Micro-F1/Macro-F1 of 87%/86% with LightGBM.

In the present scenario of domestic flights in USA, there have been numerous instances of flight delays and cancellations. In the United States, the American Airlines, Inc. have been one of the most entrusted and the world's largest airline in terms of number of destinations served. But when it comes to domestic flights, AA has not lived up to the expectations in terms of punctuality or on-time performance. Flight Delays also result in airline companies operating commercial flights to incur huge losses. So, they are trying their best to prevent or avoid Flight Delays and Cancellations by taking certain measures. This study aims at analyzing flight information of US domestic flights operated by American Airlines, covering top 5 busiest airports of US and predicting possible arrival delay of the flight using Data Mining and Machine Learning Approaches. The Gradient Boosting Classifier Model is deployed by training and hyper-parameter tuning it, achieving a maximum accuracy of 85.73%. Such an Intelligent System is very essential in foretelling flights'on-time performance.

Electronic health records are an increasingly important resource for understanding the interactions between patient health, environment, and clinical decisions. In this paper we report an empirical study of predictive modeling of several patient outcomes using three state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Our primary goal is to validate the models by interpreting the importance of predictors in the final models. Central to interpretation is the use of feature importance scores, which vary depending on the underlying methodology. In order to assess feature importance, we compared univariate statistical tests, information-theoretic measures, permutation testing, and normalized coefficients from multivariate logistic regression models. In general we found poor correlation between methods in their assessment of feature importance, even when their performance is comparable and relatively good. However, permutation tests applied to random forest and gradient boosting models showed the most agreement, and the importance scores matched the clinical interpretation most frequently.

A data set is called imbalanced if it contains many more samples from one class than from the rest of the classes. Data sets are unbalanced when at least one class is represented by only a small number of training examples (called the minority class) while other classes make up the majority. In this scenario, classifiers can have good accuracy on the majority class but very poor accuracy on the minority class(es) due to the influence that the larger majority class. The common example of such dataset is credit card fraud detection, where data points for fraud 1, are usually very less in comparison to fraud 0. There are many reasons why a dataset might be imbalanced: the category one is targeting might be very rare in the population, or the data might simply be difficult to collect. Let's solve the problem of an imbalanced dataset by working on one such dataset.

This paper examines split-improvement feature importance scores for tree-based methods. Starting with Classification and Regression Trees (CART; Breiman, 2017) and C4.5 (Quinlan, 2014), decision trees have been a workhorse of general machine learning, particularly within ensemble methods such as Random Forests (RF; Breiman, 2001) and Gradient Boosting Trees (Friedman, 2001). They enjoy the benefits of computational speed, few tuning parameters and natural ways of handling missing values.

Random forests (RF) are one of the most widely used ensemble learning methods in classification and regression tasks. Despite its impressive performance, its theoretical consistency, which would ensure that its result converges to the optimum as the sample size increases, has been left far behind. Several consistent random forest variants have been proposed, yet all with relatively poor performance compared to the original random forests. In this paper, a novel RF framework named multinomial random forests (MRF) is proposed. In the MRF, an impurity-based multinomial distribution is constructed as the basis for the selection of a splitting point. This ensures that a certain degree of randomness is achieved while the overall quality of the trees is not much different from the original random forests. We prove the consistency of the MRF and demonstrate with multiple datasets that it performs similarly as the original random forests and better than existent consistent random forest variants for both classification and regression tasks.

We describe an efficient implementation of clause guidance in saturation-based automated theorem provers extending the ENIGMA approach. Unlike in the first ENIGMA implementation where fast linear classifier is trained and used together with manually engineered features, we have started to experiment with more sophisticated state-of-the-art machine learning methods such as gradient boosted trees and recursive neural networks. In particular the latter approach poses challenges in terms of efficiency of clause evaluation, however, we show that deep integration of the neural evaluation with the ATP data-structures can largely amortize this cost and lead to competitive real-time results. Both methods are evaluated on a large dataset of theorem proving problems and compared with the previous approaches. The resulting methods improve on the manually designed clause guidance, providing the first practically convincing application of gradient-boosted and neural clause guidance in saturation-style automated theorem provers.