The dramatic growth of e-shopping will undoubtedly cause significant impacts on travel demand. As a result, transportation modeller's ability to model e-shopping demand is becoming increasingly important. This study developed models to predict households' weekly home delivery frequencies. We used both classical econometric and machine learning techniques to obtain the best model. It is found that socioeconomic factors such as having an online grocery membership, household members' average age, the percentage of male household members, the number of workers in the household and various land-use factors influence home delivery demand. This study also compared the interpretations and performances of the machine learning models and the classical econometric model. Agreement is found in the variable's effects identified through the machine learning and econometric models. However, with similar recall accuracy, the ordered probit model, a classical econometric model, can accurately predict the aggregate distribution of household delivery demand. In contrast, both machine learning models failed to match the observed distribution.

Sports, due to their global reach and impact-rich prediction tasks, are an exciting domain to deploy machine learning models. However, data from conventional sports is often unsuitable for research use due to its size, veracity, and accessibility. To address these issues, we turn to esports, a growing domain that encompasses video games played in a capacity similar to conventional sports. Since esports data is acquired through server logs rather than peripheral sensors, esports provides a unique opportunity to obtain a massive collection of clean and detailed spatiotemporal data, similar to those collected in conventional sports. To parse esports data, we develop awpy, an open-source esports game log parsing library that can extract player trajectories and actions from game logs. Using awpy, we parse 8.6m actions, 7.9m game frames, and 417k trajectories from 1,558 game logs from professional Counter-Strike tournaments to create the Esports Trajectory and Actions (ESTA) dataset. ESTA is one of the largest and most granular publicly available sports data sets to date. We use ESTA to develop benchmarks for win prediction using player-specific information.

The absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, and toxicity (ADMET) properties are important in drug discovery as they define efficacy and safety. In this work, we applied an ensemble of features, including fingerprints and descriptors, and a tree-based machine learning model, extreme gradient boosting, for accurate ADMET prediction. Our model performs well in the Therapeutics Data Commons ADMET benchmark group. For 22 tasks, our model is ranked first in 18 tasks and top 3 in 21 tasks. The trained machine learning models are integrated in ADMETboost, a web server that is publicly available at https://ai-druglab.smu.edu/admet.

This article aims at leveraging feature importance to assess whether all the columns within a dataset need to be used for prediction or not. Imagine you're enjoying a walk in the woods and you find some mushrooms on the side of the path. Wouldn't it be nice to input some of their features into an ML-powered application that can detect with confidence edible qualities? I'm personally not into mushroom hunting but I'm definitely into food, and I can already smell a nice dish of "tagliolini ai funghi" in front of me after a long walk. Mushrooms are fungi, part of a kingdom of their own separate from plants and animals.

Machine learning for hospital operations is under-studied. We present a prediction pipeline that uses live electronic health-records for patients in a UK teaching hospital’s emergency department (ED) to generate short-term, probabilistic forecasts of emergency admissions. A set of XGBoost classifiers applied to 109,465 ED visits yielded AUROCs from 0.82 to 0.90 depending on elapsed visit-time at the point of prediction. Patient-level probabilities of admission were aggregated to forecast the number of admissions among current ED patients and, incorporating patients yet to arrive, total emergency admissions within specified time-windows. The pipeline gave a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.0 admissions (mean percentage error of 17%) versus 6.5 (32%) for a benchmark metric. Models developed with 104,504 later visits during the Covid-19 pandemic gave AUROCs of 0.68–0.90 and MAE of 4.2 (30%) versus a 4.9 (33%) benchmark. We discuss how we surmounted challenges of designing and implementing models for real-time use, including temporal framing, data preparation, and changing operational conditions.

In many machine learning applications, e.g., tree-based ensembles, floating point numbers are extensively utilized due to their expressiveness. Nowadays performing data analysis on embedded devices from dynamic data masses becomes available, but such systems often lack hardware capabilities to process floating point numbers, introducing large overheads for their processing. Even if such hardware is present in general computing systems, using integer operations instead of floating point operations promises to reduce operation overheads and improve the performance. In this paper, we provide \mdname, a full precision floating point comparison for random forests, by only using integer and logic operations. To ensure the same functionality preserves, we formally prove the correctness of this comparison. Since random forests only require comparison of floating point numbers during inference, we implement \mdname~in low level realizations and therefore eliminate the need for floating point hardware entirely, by keeping the model accuracy unchanged. The usage of \mdname~basically boils down to a one-by-one replacement of conditions: For instance, a comparison statement in C: if(pX[3]<=(float)10.074347) becomes if((*(((int*)(pX))+3))<=((int)(0x41213087))). Experimental evaluation on X86 and ARMv8 desktop and server class systems shows that the execution time can be reduced by up to $\approx 30\%$ with our novel approach.

Asthma is a common chronic disease of the respiratory system causing significant disability and societal burden. It affects more than 300 million people worldwide, while more than 100 million people will likely have asthma by 2025. The price of asthma varies greatly from nation to nation. Mean yearly cost can be estimated to 1900 EUR in Europe and $3100 in the United States. Managing asthma involves controlling symptoms, preventing exacerbations, and maintaining lung function. Improved asthma control is reduces the risk of exacerbations and lung function impairment while reducing the direct costs of asthma care and indirect costs associated with reduced productivity. Understanding the complex dynamics of the pulmonary system and the lung's response to disease is fundamental to the advancement of Asthma treatment. Computational models of the respiratory system seek to provide a theoretical framework to understand the interaction between structure and function. Their application can improve pulmonary medicine by a patient-specific approach to medicinal methodologies optimizing the delivery given the personalized geometry and personalized ventilation patterns. A three-fold objective is addressed within this dissertation. The first part refers to the comprehension of pulmonary pathophysiology and the mechanics of Asthma and subsequently of constrictive pulmonary conditions in general. The second part refers to the design and implementation of tools that facilitate personalized medicine to improve delivery and effectiveness. Finally, the third part refers to the self-management of the condition, meaning that medical personnel and patients have access to tools and methods that allow the first party to easily track the course of the condition and the second party, i.e. the patient to easily self-manage it alleviating the significant burden from the health system.

The expected goal provides a more representative measure of the team and player performance which also suit the low-scoring nature of football instead of score in modern football. The score of a match involves randomness and often may not represent the performance of the teams and players, therefore it has been popular to use the alternative statistics in recent years such as shots on target, ball possessions, and drills. To measure the probability of a shot being a goal by the expected goal, several features are used to train an expected goal model which is based on the event and tracking football data. The selection of these features, the size and date of the data, and the model which are used as the parameters that may affect the performance of the model. Using black-box machine learning models for increasing the predictive performance of the model decreases its interpretability that causes the loss of information that can be gathered from the model. This paper proposes an accurate expected goal model trained consisting of 315,430 shots from seven seasons between 2014-15 and 2020-21 of the top-five European football leagues. Moreover, this model is explained by using explainable artificial intelligence tool to obtain an explainable expected goal model for evaluating a team or player performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that demonstrates a practical application of an explainable artificial intelligence tool aggregated profiles to explain a group of observations on an accurate expected goal model for monitoring the team and player performance. Moreover, these methods can be generalized to other sports branches.

Federated Learning (FL) is a paradigm for jointly training machine learning algorithms in a decentralized manner which allows for parties to communicate with an aggregator to create and train a model, without exposing the underlying raw data distribution of the local parties involved in the training process. Most research in FL has been focused on Neural Network-based approaches, however Tree-Based methods, such as XGBoost, have been underexplored in Federated Learning due to the challenges in overcoming the iterative and additive characteristics of the algorithm. Decision tree-based models, in particular XGBoost, can handle non-IID data, which is significant for algorithms used in Federated Learning frameworks since the underlying characteristics of the data are decentralized and have risks of being non-IID by nature. In this paper, we focus on investigating the effects of how Federated XGBoost is impacted by non-IID distributions by performing experiments on various sample size-based data skew scenarios and how these models perform under various non-IID scenarios. We conduct a set of extensive experiments across multiple different datasets and different data skew partitions. Our experimental results demonstrate that despite the various partition ratios, the performance of the models stayed consistent and performed close to or equally well against models that were trained in a centralized manner.

Taiwan has the highest susceptibility to and fatalities from debris flows worldwide. The existing debris flow warning system in Taiwan, which uses a time-weighted measure of rainfall, leads to alerts when the measure exceeds a predefined threshold. However, this system generates many false alarms and misses a substantial fraction of the actual debris flows. Towards improving this system, we implemented five machine learning models that input historical rainfall data and predict whether a debris flow will occur within a selected time. We found that a random forest model performed the best among the five models and outperformed the existing system in Taiwan. Furthermore, we identified the rainfall trajectories strongly related to debris flow occurrences and explored trade-offs between the risks of missing debris flows versus frequent false alerts. These results suggest the potential for machine learning models trained on hourly rainfall data alone to save lives while reducing false alerts.