The interpretability of models has become a crucial issue in Machine Learning because of algorithmic decisions' growing impact on real-world applications. Tree ensemble methods, such as Random Forests or XgBoost, are powerful learning tools for classification tasks. However, while combining multiple trees may provide higher prediction quality than a single one, it sacrifices the interpretability property resulting in "black-box" models. In light of this, we aim to develop an interpretable representation of a tree-ensemble model that can provide valuable insights into its behavior. First, given a target tree-ensemble model, we develop a hierarchical visualization tool based on a heatmap representation of the forest's feature use, considering the frequency of a feature and the level at which it is selected as an indicator of importance. Next, we propose a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation for constructing a single optimal multivariate tree that accurately mimics the target model predictions. The goal is to provide an interpretable surrogate model based on oblique hyperplane splits, which uses only the most relevant features according to the defined forest's importance indicators. The MILP model includes a penalty on feature selection based on their frequency in the forest to further induce sparsity of the splits. The natural formulation has been strengthened to improve the computational performance of mixed-integer software. Computational experience is carried out on benchmark datasets from the UCI repository using a state-of-the-art off-the-shelf solver. Results show that the proposed model is effective in yielding a shallow interpretable tree approximating the tree-ensemble decision function.

Infinite-order U-statistics (IOUS) has been used extensively on subbagging ensemble learning algorithms such as random forests to quantify its uncertainty. While normality results of IOUS have been studied extensively, its variance estimation approaches and theoretical properties remain mostly unexplored. Existing approaches mainly utilize the leading term dominance property in the Hoeffding decomposition. However, such a view usually leads to biased estimation when the kernel size is large or the sample size is small. On the other hand, while several unbiased estimators exist in the literature, their relationships and theoretical properties, especially the ratio consistency, have never been studied. These limitations lead to unguaranteed performances of constructed confidence intervals. To bridge these gaps in the literature, we propose a new view of the Hoeffding decomposition for variance estimation that leads to an unbiased estimator. Instead of leading term dominance, our view utilizes the dominance of the peak region. Moreover, we establish the connection and equivalence of our estimator with several existing unbiased variance estimators. Theoretically, we are the first to establish the ratio consistency of such a variance estimator, which justifies the coverage rate of confidence intervals constructed from random forests. Numerically, we further propose a local smoothing procedure to improve the estimator's finite sample performance. Extensive simulation studies show that our estimators enjoy lower bias and archive targeted coverage rates.

In the previous article, we understood the complete flow of the decision tree algorithm. In this article, let's understand why we need to learn about the random forest. Why do we need Random forest? What is it all about? Random Forest is also a supervised machine-learning algorithm.

Random Forests and related tree-based methods are popular for supervised learning from table based data. Apart from their ease of parallelization, their classification performance is also superior. However, this performance, especially parallelizability, is offset by the loss of explainability. Statistical methods are often used to compensate for this disadvantage. Yet, their ability for local explanations, and in particular for global explanations, is limited. In the present work we propose an algebraic method, rooted in lattice theory, for the (global) explanation of tree ensembles. In detail, we introduce two novel conceptual views on tree ensemble classifiers and demonstrate their explanatory capabilities on Random Forests that were trained with standard parameters.

Rearrangement-based nonprehensile manipulation still remains as a challenging problem due to the high-dimensional problem space and the complex physical uncertainties it entails. We formulate this class of problems as a coupled problem of local rearrangement and global action optimization by incorporating free-space transit motions between constrained rearranging actions. We propose a forest-based kinodynamic planning framework to concurrently search in multiple problem regions, so as to enable global exploration of the most task-relevant subspaces, while facilitating effective switches between local rearranging actions. By interleaving dynamic horizon planning and action execution, our framework can adaptively handle real-world uncertainties. With extensive experiments, we show that our framework significantly improves the planning efficiency and manipulation effectiveness while being robust against various uncertainties.

Decision forest, including RandomForest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, is one of the most popular machine learning techniques used in many industrial scenarios, such as credit card fraud detection, ranking, and business intelligence. Because the inference process is usually performance-critical, a number of frameworks were developed and dedicated for decision forest inference, such as ONNX, TreeLite from Amazon, TensorFlow Decision Forest from Google, HummingBird from Microsoft, Nvidia FIL, and lleaves. However, these frameworks are all decoupled with data management frameworks. It is unclear whether in-database inference will improve the overall performance. In addition, these frameworks used different algorithms, optimization techniques, and parallelism models. It is unclear how these implementations will affect the overall performance and how to make design decisions for an in-database inference framework. In this work, we investigated the above questions by comprehensively comparing the end-to-end performance of the aforementioned inference frameworks and netsDB, an in-database inference framework we implemented. Through this study, we identified that netsDB is best suited for handling small-scale models on large-scale datasets and all-scale models on small-scale datasets, for which it achieved up to hundreds of times of speedup. In addition, the relation-centric representation we proposed significantly improved netsDB's performance in handling large-scale models, while the model reuse optimization we proposed further improved netsDB's performance in handling small-scale datasets.

In classical Machine Learning, Random Forests have been a silver bullet type of model. In this post, I want to better understand the components that make up a Random Forest. To accomplish this, I am going to deconstruct the Random Forest into its most basic components and explain what is going on in each level of computation. By the end, we will have attained a much deeper understanding of how Random Forests work and how to work with them with more intuition. The examples we will use will be focused on classification, but many of the principles apply to the regression scenarios as well. Let's start by invoking a classic Random Forest pattern.

The R package DynForest implements random forests for predicting a categorical or a (multiple causes) time-to-event outcome based on time-fixed and time-dependent predictors. Through the random forests, the time-dependent predictors can be measured with error at subject-specific times, and they can be endogeneous (i.e., impacted by the outcome process). They are modeled internally using flexible linear mixed models (thanks to lcmm package) with time-associations pre-specified by the user. DynForest computes dynamic predictions that take into account all the information from time-fixed and time-dependent predictors. DynForest also provides information about the most predictive variables using variable importance and minimal depth. Variable importance can also be computed on groups of variables. To display the results, several functions are available such as summary and plot functions. This paper aims to guide the user with a step-by-step example of the different functions for fitting random forests within DynForest.

Traditional classifiers infer labels under the premise that the training and test samples are generated from the same distribution. This assumption can be problematic for safety-critical applications such as medical diagnosis and network attack detection. In this paper, we consider the multi-class classification problem when the training data and the test data may have different distributions. We propose conformalized semi-supervised random forest (CSForest), which constructs set-valued predictions $C(x)$ to include the correct class label with desired probability while detecting outliers efficiently. We compare the proposed method to other state-of-art methods in both a synthetic example and a real data application to demonstrate the strength of our proposal.

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) based on patients' genetic or clinical factors are of significant interest to precision medicine. Simultaneously modeling HTE and corresponding main effects for randomized clinical trials with high-dimensional predictive markers is challenging. Motivated by the modified covariates approach, we propose a two-stage statistical learning procedure for estimating HTE with optimal efficiency augmentation, generalizing to arbitrary interaction model and exploiting powerful extreme gradient boosting trees (XGBoost). Target estimands for HTE are defined in the scale of mean difference for quantitative outcomes, or risk ratio for binary outcomes, which are the minimizers of specialized loss functions. The first stage is to estimate the main-effect equivalency of the baseline markers on the outcome, which is then used as an augmentation term in the second stage estimation for HTE. The proposed two-stage procedure is robust to model mis-specification of main effects and improves efficiency for estimating HTE through nonparametric function estimation, e.g., XGBoost. A permutation test is proposed for global assessment of evidence for HTE. An analysis of a genetic study in Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial led by the SWOG Cancer Research Network, is conducted to showcase the properties and the utilities of the two-stage method.