Uplift modeling refers to the set of machine learning techniques that a manager may use to estimate customer uplift, that is, the net effect of an action on some customer outcome. By identifying the subset of customers for whom a treatment will have the greatest effect, uplift models assist decision-makers in optimizing resource allocations and maximizing overall returns. Accurately estimating customer uplift poses practical challenges, as it requires assessing the difference between two mutually exclusive outcomes for each individual. In this paper, we propose two innovative adaptations of the well-established Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) algorithm, which learn the causal effect in a sequential way and overcome the counter-factual nature. Both approaches innovate existing techniques in terms of ensemble learning method and learning objectives, respectively. Experiments on large-scale datasets demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methods, which often yielding remarkable improvements over base models. To facilitate the application, we develop the UTBoost, an end-to-end tree boosting system specifically designed for uplift modeling. The package is open source and has been optimized for training speed to meet the needs of real industrial applications.

We present a theory of ensemble diversity, explaining the nature of diversity for a wide range of supervised learning scenarios. This challenge, of understanding ensemble diversity, has been referred to as the "holy grail" of ensemble learning, an open research issue for over 30 years. Our framework reveals that diversity is in fact a hidden dimension in the bias-variance decomposition of the ensemble loss. We prove a family of exact bias-variance-diversity decompositions, for both regression and classification, e.g., squared, cross-entropy, and Poisson losses. For losses where an additive bias-variance decomposition is not available (e.g., 0/1 loss) we present an alternative approach, which precisely quantifies the effects of diversity, turning out to be dependent on the label distribution. Experiments show how we can use our framework to understand the diversity-encouraging mechanisms of popular methods: Bagging, Boosting, and Random Forests.

The cotton industry in the United States is committed to sustainable production practices that minimize water, land, and energy use while improving soil health and cotton output. Climate-smart agricultural technologies are being developed to boost yields while decreasing operating expenses. Crop yield prediction, on the other hand, is difficult because of the complex and nonlinear impacts of cultivar, soil type, management, pest and disease, climate, and weather patterns on crops. To solve this issue, we employ machine learning (ML) to forecast production while considering climate change, soil diversity, cultivar, and inorganic nitrogen levels. From the 1980s to the 1990s, field data were gathered across the southern cotton belt of the United States. To capture the most current effects of climate change over the previous six years, a second data source was produced using the process-based crop model, GOSSYM. We concentrated our efforts on three distinct areas inside each of the three southern states: Texas, Mississippi, and Georgia. To simplify the amount of computations, accumulated heat units (AHU) for each set of experimental data were employed as an analogy to use time-series weather data. The Random Forest Regressor yielded a 97.75% accuracy rate, with a root mean square error of 55.05 kg/ha and an R2 of around 0.98. These findings demonstrate how an ML technique may be developed and applied as a reliable and easy-to-use model to support the cotton climate-smart initiative.

Decision Trees are accessible, interpretable, and well-performing classification models. A plethora of variants with increasing expressiveness has been proposed in the last forty years. We contrast the two families of univariate DTs, whose split functions partition data through axis-parallel hyperplanes, and multivariate DTs, whose splits instead partition data through oblique hyperplanes. The latter include the former, hence multivariate DTs are in principle more powerful. Surprisingly enough, however, univariate DTs consistently show comparable performances in the literature. We analyze the reasons behind this, both with synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets. Our research questions test whether the pre-processing phase of removing correlation among features in datasets has an impact on the relative performances of univariate vs multivariate DTs. We find that existing benchmark datasets are likely biased towards favoring univariate DTs.

Decision trees have found widespread application within the machine learning community due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed towards learning decision trees from data using a Bayesian approach, which is challenging due to the potentially enormous parameter space required to span all tree models. Several approaches have been proposed to combat this challenge, with one of the more successful being Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The efficacy and efficiency of MCMC methods fundamentally rely on the quality of the so-called proposals, which is the focus of this paper. In particular, this paper investigates using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) approach to explore the posterior of Bayesian decision trees more efficiently by exploiting the geometry of the likelihood within a global update scheme. Two implementations of the novel algorithm are developed and compared to existing methods by testing against standard datasets in the machine learning and Bayesian decision tree literature. HMC-based methods are shown to perform favourably with respect to predictive test accuracy, acceptance rate, and tree complexity.

Printed electronics (PE) technology provides cost-effective hardware with unmet customization, due to their low non-recurring engineering and fabrication costs. PE exhibit features such as flexibility, stretchability, porosity, and conformality, which make them a prominent candidate for enabling ubiquitous computing. Still, the large feature sizes in PE limit the realization of complex printed circuits, such as machine learning classifiers, especially when processing sensor inputs is necessary, mainly due to the costly analog-to-digital converters (ADCs). To this end, we propose the design of fully customized ADCs and present, for the first time, a co-design framework for generating bespoke Decision Tree classifiers. Our comprehensive evaluation shows that our co-design enables self-powered operation of on-sensor printed classifiers in all benchmark cases.

Accuracy and interpretability of a (non-life) insurance pricing model are essential qualities to ensure fair and transparent premiums for policy-holders, that reflect their risk. In recent years, the classification and regression trees (CARTs) and their ensembles have gained popularity in the actuarial literature, since they offer good prediction performance and are relatively easily interpretable. In this paper, we introduce Bayesian CART models for insurance pricing, with a particular focus on claims frequency modelling. Additionally to the common Poisson and negative binomial (NB) distributions used for claims frequency, we implement Bayesian CART for the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution to address the difficulty arising from the imbalanced insurance claims data. To this end, we introduce a general MCMC algorithm using data augmentation methods for posterior tree exploration. We also introduce the deviance information criterion (DIC) for the tree model selection. The proposed models are able to identify trees which can better classify the policy-holders into risk groups. Some simulations and real insurance data will be discussed to illustrate the applicability of these models.

This research paper focuses on the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into the currency trading landscape, positing the development of personalized AI models, essentially functioning as intelligent personal assistants tailored to the idiosyncrasies of individual traders. The paper posits that AI models are capable of identifying nuanced patterns within the trader's historical data, facilitating a more accurate and insightful assessment of psychological risk dynamics in currency trading. The PRI is a dynamic metric that experiences fluctuations in response to market conditions that foster psychological fragility among traders. By employing sophisticated techniques, a classifying decision tree is crafted, enabling clearer decision-making boundaries within the tree structure. By incorporating the user's chronological trade entries, the model becomes adept at identifying critical junctures when psychological risks are heightened. The real-time nature of the calculations enhances the model's utility as a proactive tool, offering timely alerts to traders about impending moments of psychological risks. The implications of this research extend beyond the confines of currency trading, reaching into the realms of other industries where the judicious application of personalized modeling emerges as an efficient and strategic approach. This paper positions itself at the intersection of cutting-edge technology and the intricate nuances of human psychology, offering a transformative paradigm for decision making support in dynamic and high-pressure environments.

Forecasting natural gas consumption, considering seasonality and trends, is crucial in planning its supply and consumption and optimizing the cost of obtaining it, mainly by industrial entities. However, in times of threats to its supply, it is also a critical element that guarantees the supply of this raw material to meet individual consumers' needs, ensuring society's energy security. This article introduces a novel multistep ahead forecasting of natural gas consumption with change point detection integration for model collection selection with continual learning capabilities using data stream processing. The performance of the forecasting models based on the proposed approach is evaluated in a complex real-world use case of natural gas consumption forecasting. We employed Hoeffding tree predictors as forecasting models and the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm for the change point detection procedure. The change point detection integration enables selecting a different model collection for successive time frames. Thus, three model collection selection procedures (with and without an error feedback loop) are defined and evaluated for forecasting scenarios with various densities of detected change points. These models were compared with change point agnostic baseline approaches. Our experiments show that fewer change points result in a lower forecasting error regardless of the model collection selection procedure employed. Also, simpler model collection selection procedures omitting forecasting error feedback leads to more robust forecasting models suitable for continual learning tasks.

Micro RNAs (miRNA) are a type of non-coding RNA, which are involved in gene regulation and can be associated with diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular and neurological diseases. As such, identifying the entire genome of miRNA can be of great relevance. Since experimental methods for novel precursor miRNA (pre-miRNA) detection are complex and expensive, computational detection using ML could be useful. Existing ML methods are often complex black boxes, which do not create an interpretable structural description of pre-miRNA. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, which makes use of generative modeling through Variational Auto-Encoders to uncover the generative factors of pre-miRNA. After training the VAE, the pre-miRNA description is developed using a decision tree on the lower dimensional latent space. Applying the framework to miRNA classification, we obtain a high reconstruction and classification performance, while also developing an accurate miRNA description.