Non-significant randomized control trials can hide subgroups of good responders to experimental drugs, thus hindering subsequent development. Identifying such heterogeneous treatment effects is key for precision medicine and many post-hoc analysis methods have been developed for that purpose. While several benchmarks have been carried out to identify the strengths and weaknesses of these methods, notably for binary and continuous endpoints, similar systematic empirical evaluation of subgroup analysis for time-to-event endpoints are lacking. This work aims to fill this gap by evaluating several subgroup analysis algorithms in the context of time-to-event outcomes, by means of three different research questions: Is there heterogeneity? What are the biomarkers responsible for such heterogeneity? Who are the good responders to treatment? In this context, we propose a new synthetic and semi-synthetic data generation process that allows one to explore a wide range of heterogeneity scenarios with precise control on the level of heterogeneity. We provide an open source Python package, available on Github, containing our generation process and our comprehensive benchmark framework. We hope this package will be useful to the research community for future investigations of heterogeneity of treatment effects and subgroup analysis methods benchmarking.

Finding an optimal decision tree for a supervised learning task is a challenging combinatorial problem to solve at scale. It was recently proposed to frame the problem as a Markov Decision Problem (MDP) and use deep reinforcement learning to tackle scaling. Unfortunately, these methods are not competitive with the current branch-and-bound state-of-the-art. We propose instead to scale the resolution of such MDPs using an information-theoretic tests generating function that heuristically, and dynamically for every state, limits the set of admissible test actions to a few good candidates. As a solver, we show empirically that our algorithm is at the very least competitive with branch-and-bound alternatives. As a machine learning tool, a key advantage of our approach is to solve for multiple complexity-performance trade-offs at virtually no additional cost. With such a set of solutions, a user can then select the tree that generalizes best and which has the interpretability level that best suits their needs, which no current branch-and-bound method allows.

Interpretability of AI models allows for user safety checks to build trust in such AIs. In particular, Decision Trees (DTs) provide a global look at the learned model and transparently reveal which features of the input are critical for making a decision. However, interpretability is hindered if the DT is too large. To learn compact trees, a recent Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework has been proposed to explore the space of DTs using deep RL. This framework augments a decision problem (e.g. a supervised classification task) with additional actions that gather information about the features of an otherwise hidden input. By appropriately penalizing these actions, the agent learns to optimally trade-off size and performance of DTs. In practice, a reactive policy for a partially observable Markov decision process (MDP) needs to be learned, which is still an open problem. We show in this paper that deep RL can fail even on simple toy tasks of this class. However, when the underlying decision problem is a supervised classification task, we show that finding the optimal tree can be cast as a fully observable Markov decision problem and be solved efficiently, giving rise to a new family of algorithms for learning DTs that go beyond the classical greedy maximization ones.

Space-Air-Ground Integrated Networks (SAGINs), which incorporate space and aerial networks with terrestrial wireless systems, are vital enablers of the emerging sixth-generation (6G) wireless networks. Besides bringing significant benefits to various applications and services, SAGINs are envisioned to extend high-speed broadband coverage to remote areas, such as small towns or mining sites, or areas where terrestrial infrastructure cannot reach, such as airplanes or maritime use cases. However, due to the limited power and storage resources, as well as other constraints introduced by the design of terrestrial networks, SAGINs must be intelligently configured and controlled to satisfy the envisioned requirements. Meanwhile, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is another critical enabler of 6G. Due to massive amounts of available data, AI has been leveraged to address pressing challenges of current and future wireless networks. By adding AI and facilitating the decision-making and prediction procedures, SAGINs can effectively adapt to their surrounding environment, thus enhancing the performance of various metrics. In this work, we aim to investigate the interplay of AI and SAGINs by providing a holistic overview of state-of-the-art research in AI-enabled SAGINs. Specifically, we present a comprehensive overview of some potential applications of AI in SAGINs. We also cover open issues in employing AI and detail the contributions of SAGINs in the development of AI. Finally, we highlight some limitations of the existing research works and outline potential future research directions.

The applicability of widely adopted machine learning (ML) methods to classification is circumscribed by the imperatives of explicability and uncertainty, particularly evident in domains such as healthcare, behavioural sciences, and finances, wherein accountability assumes priority. Recently, Small and Incomplete Dataset Analyser (SaNDA) has been proposed to enhance the ability to perform classification in such domains, by developing a data abstraction protocol using a ROC curve-based method. This paper focuses on column-wise data transformations called abstractions, which are crucial for SaNDA's classification process and explores alternative abstractions protocols, such as constant binning and quantiles. The best-performing methods have been compared against Random Forest as a baseline for explainable methods. The results suggests that SaNDA can be a viable substitute for Random Forest when data is incomplete, even with minimal missing values. It consistently maintains high accuracy even when half of the dataset is missing, unlike Random Forest which experiences a significant decline in accuracy under similar conditions.

This chapter is a preprint from our book by , focusing on leveraging machine learning (ML) in chemical and polyolefin manufacturing optimization. It's crafted for both novices and seasoned professionals keen on the latest ML applications in chemical processes. We trace the evolution of AI and ML in chemical industries, delineate core ML components, and provide resources for ML beginners. A detailed discussion on various ML methods is presented, covering regression, classification, and unsupervised learning techniques, with performance metrics and examples. Ensemble methods, deep learning networks, including MLP, DNNs, RNNs, CNNs, and transformers, are explored for their growing role in chemical applications. Practical workshops guide readers through predictive modeling using advanced ML algorithms. The chapter culminates with insights into science-guided ML, advocating for a hybrid approach that enhances model accuracy. The extensive bibliography offers resources for further research and practical implementation. This chapter aims to be a thorough primer on ML's practical application in chemical engineering, particularly for polyolefin production, and sets the stage for continued learning in subsequent chapters. Please cite the original work [169,170] when referencing.

Dealing with missing data is an important problem in statistical analysis that is often addressed with imputation procedures. The performance and validity of such methods are of great importance for their application in empirical studies. While the prevailing method of Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) with Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) is considered standard in the social science literature, the increase in complex datasets may require more advanced approaches based on machine learning. In particular, tree-based imputation methods have emerged as very competitive approaches. However, the performance and validity are not completely understood, particularly compared to the standard MICE PMM. This is especially true for inference in linear models. In this study, we investigate the impact of various imputation methods on coefficient estimation, Type I error, and power, to gain insights that can help empirical researchers deal with missingness more effectively. We explore MICE PMM alongside different tree-based methods, such as MICE with Random Forest (RF), Chained Random Forests with and without PMM (missRanger), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (MIXGBoost), conducting a realistic simulation study using the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) as the original data source. Our results reveal that Random Forest-based imputations, especially MICE RF and missRanger with PMM, consistently perform better in most scenarios. Standard MICE PMM shows partially increased bias and overly conservative test decisions, particularly with non-true zero coefficients. Our results thus underscore the potential advantages of tree-based imputation methods, albeit with a caveat that all methods perform worse with an increased missingness, particularly missRanger.

Geomagnetic storms (GS) occur when solar winds disrupt Earth's magnetosphere. GS can cause severe damages to satellites, power grids, and communication infrastructures. Estimate of direct economic impacts of a large scale GS exceeds $40 billion a day in the US. Early prediction is critical in preventing and minimizing the hazards. However, current methods either predict several hours ahead but fail to identify all types of GS, or make predictions within short time, e.g., one hour ahead of the occurrence. This work aims to predict all types of geomagnetic storms reliably and as early as possible using big data and machine learning algorithms. By fusing big data collected from multiple ground stations in the world on different aspects of solar measurements and using Random Forests regression with feature selection and downsampling on minor geomagnetic storm instances (which carry majority of the data), we are able to achieve an accuracy of 82.55% on data collected in 2021 when making early predictions three hours in advance. Given that important predictive features such as historic Kp indices are measured every 3 hours and their importance decay quickly with the amount of time in advance, an early prediction of 3 hours ahead of time is believed to be close to the practical limit.

Categorical variables often appear in datasets for classification and regression tasks, and they need to be encoded into numerical values before training. Since many encoders have been developed and can significantly impact performance, choosing the appropriate encoder for a task becomes a time-consuming yet important practical issue. This study broadly classifies machine learning models into three categories: 1) ATI models that implicitly perform affine transformations on inputs, such as multi-layer perceptron neural network; 2) Tree-based models that are based on decision trees, such as random forest; and 3) the rest, such as kNN. Theoretically, we prove that the one-hot encoder is the best choice for ATI models in the sense that it can mimic any other encoders by learning suitable weights from the data. We also explain why the target encoder and its variants are the most suitable encoders for tree-based models. This study conducted comprehensive computational experiments to evaluate 14 encoders, including one-hot and target encoders, along with eight common machine-learning models on 28 datasets. The computational results agree with our theoretical analysis. The findings in this study shed light on how to select the suitable encoder for data scientists in fields such as fraud detection, disease diagnosis, etc.

Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) generalization is an essential topic in machine learning. However, recent research is only focusing on the corresponding methods for neural networks. This paper introduces a novel and effective solution for OOD generalization of decision tree models, named Invariant Decision Tree (IDT). IDT enforces a penalty term with regard to the unstable/varying behavior of a split across different environments during the growth of the tree. Its ensemble version, the Invariant Random Forest (IRF), is constructed. Our proposed method is motivated by a theoretical result under mild conditions, and validated by numerical tests with both synthetic and real datasets. The superior performance compared to non-OOD tree models implies that considering OOD generalization for tree models is absolutely necessary and should be given more attention.