Large-scale high spatial resolution aboveground biomass (AGB) maps play a crucial role in determining forest carbon stocks and how they are changing, which is instrumental in understanding the global carbon cycle, and implementing policy to mitigate climate change. The advent of the new space-borne LiDAR sensor, NASA's GEDI instrument, provides unparalleled possibilities for the accurate and unbiased estimation of forest AGB at high resolution, particularly in dense and tall forests, where Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and passive optical data exhibit saturation. However, GEDI is a sampling instrument, collecting dispersed footprints, and its data must be combined with that from other continuous cover satellites to create high-resolution maps, using local machine learning methods. In this study, we developed local models to estimate forest AGB from GEDI L2A data, as the models used to create GEDI L4 AGB data incorporated minimal field data from China. We then applied LightGBM and random forest regression to generate wall-to-wall AGB maps at 25 m resolution, using extensive GEDI footprints as well as Sentinel-1 data, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-2 optical data. Through a 5-fold cross-validation, LightGBM demonstrated a slightly better performance than Random Forest across two contrasting regions. However, in both regions, the computation speed of LightGBM is substantially faster than that of the random forest model, requiring roughly one-third of the time to compute on the same hardware. Through the validation against field data, the 25 m resolution AGB maps generated using the local models developed in this study exhibited higher accuracy compared to the GEDI L4B AGB data. We found in both regions an increase in error as slope increased. The trained models were tested on nearby but different regions and exhibited good performance.

Decision trees are a popular tool in machine learning and yield easy-to-understand models. Several techniques have been proposed in the literature for learning a decision tree classifier, with different techniques working well for data from different domains. In this work, we develop approaches to design decision tree learning algorithms given repeated access to data from the same domain. We propose novel parameterized classes of node splitting criteria in top-down algorithms, which interpolate between popularly used entropy and Gini impurity based criteria, and provide theoretical bounds on the number of samples needed to learn the splitting function appropriate for the data at hand. We also study the sample complexity of tuning prior parameters in Bayesian decision tree learning, and extend our results to decision tree regression. We further consider the problem of tuning hyperparameters in pruning the decision tree for classical pruning algorithms including min-cost complexity pruning. We also study the interpretability of the learned decision trees and introduce a data-driven approach for optimizing the explainability versus accuracy trade-off using decision trees. Finally, we demonstrate the significance of our approach on real world datasets by learning data-specific decision trees which are simultaneously more accurate and interpretable.

Thanks to its solid theoretical foundation, the SHAP framework is arguably one the most widely utilized frameworks for local explainability of ML models. Despite its popularity, its exact computation is known to be very challenging, proven to be NP-Hard in various configurations. Recent works have unveiled positive complexity results regarding the computation of the SHAP score for specific model families, encompassing decision trees, random forests, and some classes of boolean circuits. Yet, all these positive results hinge on the assumption of feature independence, often simplistic in real-world scenarios. In this article, we investigate the computational complexity of the SHAP score by relaxing this assumption and introducing a Markovian perspective. We show that, under the Markovian assumption, computing the SHAP score for the class of Weighted automata, Disjoint DNFs and Decision Trees can be performed in polynomial time, offering a first positive complexity result for the problem of SHAP score computation that transcends the limitations of the feature independence assumption.

We study computational aspects of algorithmic replicability, a notion of stability introduced by Impagliazzo, Lei, Pitassi, and Sorrell [2022]. Motivated by a recent line of work that established strong statistical connections between replicability and other notions of learnability such as online learning, private learning, and SQ learning, we aim to understand better the computational connections between replicability and these learning paradigms. Our first result shows that there is a concept class that is efficiently replicably PAC learnable, but, under standard cryptographic assumptions, no efficient online learner exists for this class. Subsequently, we design an efficient replicable learner for PAC learning parities when the marginal distribution is far from uniform, making progress on a question posed by Impagliazzo et al. [2022]. To obtain this result, we design a replicable lifting framework inspired by Blanc, Lange, Malik, and Tan [2023] that transforms in a black-box manner efficient replicable PAC learners under the uniform marginal distribution over the Boolean hypercube to replicable PAC learners under any marginal distribution, with sample and time complexity that depends on a certain measure of the complexity of the distribution. Finally, we show that any pure DP learner can be transformed to a replicable one in time polynomial in the accuracy, confidence parameters and exponential in the representation dimension of the underlying hypothesis class.

We consider the task of retraining machine learning (ML) models when new batches of data become available. Existing methods focus largely on greedy approaches to find the best-performing model for each batch, without considering the stability of the model's structure across retraining iterations. In this study, we propose a methodology for finding sequences of ML models that are stable across retraining iterations. We develop a mixed-integer optimization formulation that is guaranteed to recover Pareto optimal models (in terms of the predictive power-stability trade-off) and an efficient polynomial-time algorithm that performs well in practice. We focus on retaining consistent analytical insights - which is important to model interpretability, ease of implementation, and fostering trust with users - by using custom-defined distance metrics that can be directly incorporated into the optimization problem. Our method shows stronger stability than greedily trained models with a small, controllable sacrifice in predictive power, as evidenced through a real-world case study in a major hospital system in Connecticut.

Regression trees have emerged as a preeminent tool for solving real-world regression problems due to their ability to deal with nonlinearities, interaction effects and sharp discontinuities. In this article, we rather study regression trees applied to well-behaved, differentiable functions, and determine the relationship between node parameters and the local gradient of the function being approximated. We find a simple estimate of the gradient which can be efficiently computed using quantities exposed by popular tree learning libraries. This allows the tools developed in the context of differentiable algorithms, like neural nets and Gaussian processes, to be deployed to tree-based models. To demonstrate this, we study measures of model sensitivity defined in terms of integrals of gradients and demonstrate how to compute them for regression trees using the proposed gradient estimates. Quantitative and qualitative numerical experiments reveal the capability of gradients estimated by regression trees to improve predictive analysis, solve tasks in uncertainty quantification, and provide interpretation of model behavior.

We present Collaborative Trees, a novel tree model designed for regression prediction, along with its bagging version, which aims to analyze complex statistical associations between features and uncover potential patterns inherent in the data. We decompose the mean decrease in impurity from the proposed tree model to analyze the additive and interaction effects of features on the response variable. Additionally, we introduce network diagrams to visually depict how each feature contributes additively to the response and how pairs of features contribute interaction effects. Through a detailed demonstration using an embryo growth dataset, we illustrate how the new statistical tools aid data analysis, both visually and numerically. Moreover, we delve into critical aspects of tree modeling, such as prediction performance, inference stability, and bias in feature importance measures, leveraging real datasets and simulation experiments for comprehensive discussions. On the theory side, we show that Collaborative Trees, built upon a ``sum of trees'' approach with our own innovative tree model regularization, exhibit characteristics akin to matching pursuit, under the assumption of high-dimensional independent binary input features (or one-hot feature groups). This newfound link sheds light on the superior capability of our tree model in estimating additive effects of features, a crucial factor for accurate interaction effect estimation.

This paper introduces the concept of Hyper-Trees and offers a new direction in applying tree-based models to time series data. Unlike conventional applications of decision trees that forecast time series directly, Hyper-Trees are designed to learn the parameters of a target time series model. Our framework leverages the gradient-based nature of boosted trees, which allows us to extend the concept of Hyper-Networks to Hyper-Trees and to induce a time-series inductive bias to tree models. By relating the parameters of a target time series model to features, Hyper-Trees address the issue of parameter non-stationarity and enable tree-based forecasts to extend beyond their training range. With our research, we aim to explore the effectiveness of Hyper-Trees across various forecasting scenarios and to extend the application of gradient boosted decision trees outside their conventional use in time series modeling.

Society's capacity for algorithmic problem-solving has never been greater. Artificial Intelligence is now applied across more domains than ever, a consequence of powerful abstractions, abundant data, and accessible software. As capabilities have expanded, so have risks, with models often deployed without fully understanding their potential impacts. Interpretable and interactive machine learning aims to make complex models more transparent and controllable, enhancing user agency. This review synthesizes key principles from the growing literature in this field. We first introduce precise vocabulary for discussing interpretability, like the distinction between glass box and explainable algorithms. We then explore connections to classical statistical and design principles, like parsimony and the gulfs of interaction. Basic explainability techniques -- including learned embeddings, integrated gradients, and concept bottlenecks -- are illustrated with a simple case study. We also review criteria for objectively evaluating interpretability approaches. Throughout, we underscore the importance of considering audience goals when designing interactive algorithmic systems. Finally, we outline open challenges and discuss the potential role of data science in addressing them. Code to reproduce all examples can be found at https://go.wisc.edu/3k1ewe.

Many algorithms have been recently proposed for causal machine learning. Yet, there is little to no theory on their quality, especially considering finite samples. In this work, we propose a theory based on generalization bounds that provides such guarantees. By introducing a novel change-of-measure inequality, we are able to tightly bound the model loss in terms of the deviation of the treatment propensities over the population, which we show can be empirically limited. Our theory is fully rigorous and holds even in the face of hidden confounding and violations of positivity. We demonstrate our bounds on semi-synthetic and real data, showcasing their remarkable tightness and practical utility.