In this paper we introduce a simple and intuitive adaptive k nearest neighbours classifier, and explore its utility within the context of bootstrap aggregating ("bagging"). The approach is based on finding discriminant subspaces which are computationally efficient to compute, and are motivated by enhancing the discrimination of classes through nearest neighbour classifiers. This adaptiveness promotes diversity of the individual classifiers fit across different bootstrap samples, and so further leverages the variance reducing effect of bagging. Extensive experimental results are presented documenting the strong performance of the proposed approach in comparison with Random Forest classifiers, as well as other nearest neighbours based ensembles from the literature, plus other relevant benchmarks. Code to implement the proposed approach is available in the form of an R package from https://github.com/DavidHofmeyr/BOPNN.

Neurosymbolic (NeSy) AI studies the integration of neural networks (NNs) and symbolic reasoning based on logic. Usually, NeSy techniques focus on learning the neural, probabilistic and/or fuzzy parameters of NeSy models. Learning the symbolic or logical structure of such models has, so far, received less attention. We introduce neurosymbolic decision trees (NDTs), as an extension of decision trees together with a novel NeSy structure learning algorithm, which we dub NeuID3. NeuID3 adapts the standard top-down induction of decision tree algorithms and combines it with a neural probabilistic logic representation, inherited from the DeepProbLog family of models. The key advantage of learning NDTs with NeuID3 is the support of both symbolic and subsymbolic data (such as images), and that they can exploit background knowledge during the induction of the tree structure, In our experimental evaluation we demonstrate the benefits of NeSys structure learning over more traditonal approaches such as purely data-driven learning with neural networks.

Building predictive models for tabular data presents fundamental challenges, notably in scaling consistently, i.e., more resources translating to better performance, and generalizing systematically beyond the training data distribution. Designing decision tree models remains especially challenging given the intractably large search space, and most existing methods rely on greedy heuristics, while deep learning inductive biases expect a temporal or spatial structure not naturally present in tabular data. We propose a hybrid amortized structure inference approach to learn predictive decision tree ensembles given data, formulating decision tree construction as a sequential planning problem. We train a deep reinforcement learning (GFlowNet) policy to solve this problem, yielding a generative model that samples decision trees from the Bayesian posterior. We show that our approach, DT-GFN, outperforms state-of-the-art decision tree and deep learning methods on standard classification benchmarks derived from real-world data, robustness to distribution shifts, and anomaly detection, all while yielding interpretable models with shorter description lengths. Samples from the trained DT-GFN model can be ensembled to construct a random forest, and we further show that the performance of scales consistently in ensemble size, yielding ensembles of predictors that continue to generalize systematically.

Safety-critical controllers of complex systems are hard to construct manually. Automated approaches such as controller synthesis or learning provide a tempting alternative but usually lack explainability. To this end, learning decision trees (DTs) have been prevalently used towards an interpretable model of the generated controllers. However, DTs do not exploit shared decision-making, a key concept exploited in binary decision diagrams (BDDs) to reduce their size and thus improve explainability. In this work, we introduce predicate decision diagrams (PDDs) that extend BDDs with predicates and thus unite the advantages of DTs and BDDs for controller representation. We establish a synthesis pipeline for efficient construction of PDDs from DTs representing controllers, exploiting reduction techniques for BDDs also for PDDs.

Designing and optimizing FPGA overlays is a complex and time-consuming process, often requiring multiple trial-and-error iterations to determine a suitable configuration. This paper presents an AI-driven approach to optimizing FPGA overlay configurations, specifically focusing on the NAPOLY+ automata processor implemented on the ZCU104 FPGA. By leveraging machine learning techniques, particularly Random Forest regression, we predict the feasibility and efficiency of different configurations before hardware compilation. Our method significantly reduces the number of required iterations by estimating resource utilization, including logical elements, distributed memory, and fanout, based on historical design data. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves high prediction accuracy, closely matching actual resource usage while accelerating the design process.

We perform Bayesian optimization using a Gaussian process perspective on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Our BART Kernel (BARK) uses tree agreement to define a posterior over piecewise-constant functions, and we explore the space of tree kernels using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Where BART only samples functions, the resulting BARK model obtains samples of Gaussian processes defining distributions over functions, which allow us to build acquisition functions for Bayesian optimization. Our tree-based approach enables global optimization over the surrogate, even for mixed-feature spaces. Moreover, where many previous tree-based kernels provide uncertainty quantification over function values, our sampling scheme captures uncertainty over the tree structure itself. Our experiments show the strong performance of BARK on both synthetic and applied benchmarks, due to the combination of our fully Bayesian surrogate and the optimization procedure.

We present a comprehensive classical and parameterized complexity analysis of decision tree pruning operations, extending recent research on the complexity of learning small decision trees. Thereby, we offer new insights into the computational challenges of decision tree simplification, a crucial aspect of developing interpretable and efficient machine learning models. We focus on fundamental pruning operations of subtree replacement and raising, which are used in heuristics. Surprisingly, while optimal pruning can be performed in polynomial time for subtree replacement, the problem is NP-complete for subtree raising. Therefore, we identify parameters and combinations thereof that lead to fixed-parameter tractability or hardness, establishing a precise borderline between these complexity classes. For example, while subtree raising is hard for small domain size $D$ or number $d$ of features, it can be solved in $D^{2d} \cdot |I|^{O(1)}$ time, where $|I|$ is the input size. We complement our theoretical findings with preliminary experimental results, demonstrating the practical implications of our analysis.

Calibration measures quantify how much a forecaster's predictions violates calibration, which requires that forecasts are unbiased conditioning on the forecasted probabilities. Two important desiderata for a calibration measure are its decision-theoretic implications (i.e., downstream decision-makers that best-respond to the forecasts are always no-regret) and its truthfulness (i.e., a forecaster approximately minimizes error by always reporting the true probabilities). Existing measures satisfy at most one of the properties, but not both. We introduce a new calibration measure termed subsampled step calibration, $\mathsf{StepCE}^{\textsf{sub}}$, that is both decision-theoretic and truthful. In particular, on any product distribution, $\mathsf{StepCE}^{\textsf{sub}}$ is truthful up to an $O(1)$ factor whereas prior decision-theoretic calibration measures suffer from an $e^{-\Omega(T)}$-$\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ truthfulness gap. Moreover, in any smoothed setting where the conditional probability of each event is perturbed by a noise of magnitude $c > 0$, $\mathsf{StepCE}^{\textsf{sub}}$ is truthful up to an $O(\sqrt{\log(1/c)})$ factor, while prior decision-theoretic measures have an $e^{-\Omega(T)}$-$\Omega(T^{1/3})$ truthfulness gap. We also prove a general impossibility result for truthful decision-theoretic forecasting: any complete and decision-theoretic calibration measure must be discontinuous and non-truthful in the non-smoothed setting.

In this paper, we introduce a generic data structure called decision trees, which integrates several well-known data structures, including binary search trees, K-D trees, binary space partition trees, and decision tree models from machine learning. We provide the first axiomatic definition of decision trees. These axioms establish a firm mathematical foundation for studying decision tree problems. We refer to decision trees that satisfy the axioms as proper decision trees. We prove that only proper decision trees can be uniquely characterized as K-permutations. Since permutations are among the most well-studied combinatorial structures, this characterization provides a fundamental basis for analyzing the combinatorial and algorithmic properties of decision trees. As a result of this advancement, we develop the first provably correct polynomial-time algorithm for solving the optimal decision tree problem. Our algorithm is derived using a formal program derivation framework, which enables step-by-step equational reasoning to construct side-effect-free programs with guaranteed correctness. The derived algorithm is correct by construction and is applicable to decision tree problems defined by any splitting rules that adhere to the axioms and any objective functions that can be specified in a given form. Examples include the decision tree problems where splitting rules are defined by axis-parallel hyperplanes, arbitrary hyperplanes, and hypersurfaces. By extending the axioms, we can potentially address a broader range of problems. Moreover, the derived algorithm can easily accommodate various constraints, such as tree depth and leaf size, and is amenable to acceleration techniques such as thinning method.

Such designs arise when treatment assignment is based on whether a particular covariate -- referred to as the running variable -- lies above or below a known value, referred to as the cutoff value. Because treatment is deterministically assigned as a known function of the running variable, RDDs are trivially deconfounded: treatment assignment is independent of the outcome variable, given the running variable (because treatment is conditionally constant). However, estimation of treatment effects in RDDs is more complicated than simply controlling for the running variable, because doing so introduces a complete lack of overlap, which is the other key condition needed to justify regression adjustment for causal inference. Nonetheless, treatment effects at the cutoff may still be identified. Specifically, it is well-known that treatment effects at the cutoff can be estimated from RDDs as the magnitude of a discontinuity in the conditional mean response function at that point (Hahn et al., 2001). This paper investigates the use of Bayesian additive regression tree models (Chipman et al., 2010; Hahn et al., 2020) for the purpose of estimating conditional average treatments effects (CATE) at the cutoff, conditional on observed covariates other than the running variable. To the best of our knowledge, such data-driven CATE estimation has not been a focus of the existing RDD literature and we are the first to propose BART for this purpose.