Decision trees and forests have achieved successes in various real applications, most working with all testing classes known in training data. In this work, we focus on learning with augmented class via forests, where an augmented class may appear in testing data yet not in training data. We incorporate information of augmented class into trees' splitting, that is, augmented Gini impurity, a new splitting criterion is introduced to exploit some unlabeled data from testing distribution. We then develop the Learning with Augmented Class via Forests (short for LACForest) approach, which constructs shallow forests according to the augmented Gini impurity and then splits forests with pseudo-labeled augmented instances for better performance. We also develop deep neural forests via an optimization objective based on our augmented Gini impurity, which essentially utilizes the representation power of neural networks for forests. Theoretically, we present the convergence analysis for our augmented Gini impurity, and we finally conduct experiments to evaluate our approaches.

As machine learning gets adopted into the industry quickly, trustworthiness is increasingly in focus. Yet, efficiency and sustainability of robust training pipelines still have to be established. In this work, we consider a simple pipeline for training adversarially robust decision trees and investigate the efficiency of each step. Our pipeline consists of three stages. Firstly, we choose the perturbation size automatically for each dataset. For that, we introduce a simple algorithm, instead of relying on intuition or prior work. Moreover, we show that the perturbation size can be estimated from smaller models than the one intended for full training, and thus significant gains in efficiency can be achieved. Secondly, we train state-of-the-art adversarial training methods and evaluate them regarding both their training time and adversarial accuracy. Thirdly, we certify the robustness of each of the models thus obtained and investigate the time required for this. We find that verification time, which is critical to the efficiency of the full pipeline, is not correlated with training time.

Along with accurate prediction, understanding the contribution of each feature to the making of the prediction, i.e., the importance of the feature, is a desirable and arguably necessary component of a machine learning model. For a complex model such as a random forest, such importances are not innate -- as they are, e.g., with linear regression. Efficient methods have been created to provide such capabilities, with one of the most popular among them being permutation feature importance due to its efficiency, model-agnostic nature, and perceived intuitiveness. However, permutation feature importance has been shown to be misleading in the presence of dependent features as a result of the creation of unrealistic observations when permuting the dependent features. In this work, we develop TRIP (Test for Reliable Interpretation via Permutation), a test requiring minimal assumptions that is able to detect unreliable permutation feature importance scores that are the result of model extrapolation. To build on this, we demonstrate how the test can be complemented in order to allow its use in high dimensional settings. Through testing on simulated data and applications, our results show that the test can be used to reliably detect when permutation feature importance scores are unreliable.

In the famous Two Cultures paper, Leo Breiman provided a visionary perspective on the cultures of ''data models'' (modeling with consideration of data generation) versus ''algorithmic models'' (vanilla machine learning models). I provide a modern perspective on these approaches. One of Breiman's key arguments against data models is the ''Rashomon Effect,'' which is the existence of many different-but-equally-good models. The Rashomon Effect implies that data modelers would not be able to determine which model generated the data. Conversely, one of his core advantages in favor of data models is simplicity, as he claimed there exists an ''Occam Dilemma,'' i.e., an accuracy-simplicity tradeoff. After 25 years of powerful computers, it has become clear that this claim is not generally true, in that algorithmic models do not need to be complex to be accurate; however, there are nuances that help explain Breiman's logic, specifically, that by ''simple,'' he appears to consider only linear models or unoptimized decision trees. Interestingly, the Rashomon Effect is a key tool in proving the nullification of the Occam Dilemma. To his credit though, Breiman did not have the benefit of modern computers, with which my observations are much easier to make. Breiman's goal for interpretability was somewhat intertwined with causality: simpler models can help reveal which variables have a causal relationship with the outcome. However, I argue that causality can be investigated without the use of single models, whether or not they are simple. Interpretability is useful in its own right, and I think Breiman knew that too. Technically, my modern perspective does not belong to either of Breiman's Two Cultures, but shares the goals of both of them - causality, simplicity, accuracy - and shows that these goals can be accomplished in other ways, without the limitations Breiman was concerned about.

Random Forest (RF) is a widely used ensemble learning technique known for its robust classification performance across diverse domains. However, it often relies on hundreds of trees and all input features, leading to high inference cost and model redundancy. In this work, our goal is to grow trees dynamically only on informative features and then enforce maximal diversity by clustering and retaining uncorrelated trees. Therefore, we propose a Refined Random Forest Classifier that iteratively refines itself by first removing the least informative features and then analytically determines how many new trees should be grown, followed by correlation-based clustering to remove redundant trees. The classification accuracy of our model was compared against the standard RF on the same number of trees. Experiments on 8 multiple benchmark datasets, including binary and multiclass datasets, demonstrate that the proposed model achieves improved accuracy compared to standard RF.

The emergence of Open Banking represents a significant shift in financial data management, influencing financial institutions' market dynamics and marketing strategies. This increased competition creates opportunities and challenges, as institutions manage data inflow to improve products and services while mitigating data outflow that could aid competitors. This study introduces a framework to predict customers' propensity to share data via Open Banking and interprets this behavior through Explanatory Model Analysis (EMA). Using data from a large Brazilian financial institution with approximately 3.2 million customers, a hybrid data balancing strategy incorporating ADASYN and NEARMISS techniques was employed to address the infrequency of data sharing and enhance the training of XGBoost models. These models accurately predicted customer data sharing, achieving 91.39% accuracy for inflow and 91.53% for outflow. The EMA phase combined the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method with the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) technique, revealing the most influential features on customer decisions. Key features included the number of transactions and purchases in mobile channels, interactions within these channels, and credit-related features, particularly credit card usage across the national banking system. These results highlight the critical role of mobile engagement and credit in driving customer data-sharing behaviors, providing financial institutions with strategic insights to enhance competitiveness and innovation in the Open Banking environment.

We present a novel tuning procedure for random forests (RFs) that improves the accuracy of estimated quantiles and produces valid, relatively narrow prediction intervals. While RFs are typically used to estimate mean responses (conditional on covariates), they can also be used to estimate quantiles by estimating the full distribution of the response. However, standard approaches for building RFs often result in excessively biased quantile estimates. To reduce this bias, our proposed tuning procedure minimizes "quantile coverage loss" (QCL), which we define as the estimated bias of the marginal quantile coverage probability estimate based on the out-of-bag sample. We adapt QCL tuning to handle censored data and demonstrate its use with random survival forests. We show that QCL tuning results in quantile estimates with more accurate coverage probabilities than those achieved using default parameter values or traditional tuning (using MSPE for uncensored data and C-index for censored data), while also reducing the estimated MSE of these coverage probabilities. We discuss how the superior performance of QCL tuning is linked to its alignment with the estimation goal. Finally, we explore the validity and width of prediction intervals created using this method.

The classification of imbalanced data streams, which have unequal class distributions, is a key difficulty in machine learning, especially when dealing with multiple classes. While binary imbalanced data stream classification tasks have received considerable attention, only a few studies have focused on multi-class imbalanced data streams. Effectively managing the dynamic imbalance ratio is a key challenge in this domain. This study introduces a novel, robust, and resilient approach to address these challenges by integrating Locality Sensitive Hashing with Random Hyperplane Projections (LSH-RHP) into the Dynamic Ensemble Diversification (DynED) framework. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first application of LSH-RHP for undersampling in the context of imbalanced non-stationary data streams. The proposed method undersamples the majority classes by utilizing LSH-RHP, provides a balanced training set, and improves the ensemble's prediction performance. We conduct comprehensive experiments on 23 real-world and ten semi-synthetic datasets and compare LSH-DynED with 15 state-of-the-art methods. The results reveal that LSH-DynED outperforms other approaches in terms of both Kappa and mG-Mean effectiveness measures, demonstrating its capability in dealing with multi-class imbalanced non-stationary data streams. Notably, LSH-DynED performs well in large-scale, high-dimensional datasets with considerable class imbalances and demonstrates adaptation and robustness in real-world circumstances. To motivate our design, we review existing methods for imbalanced data streams, outline key challenges, and offer guidance for future work. For the reproducibility of our results, we have made our implementation available on GitHub.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) aims to identify an optimal hyperparameter configuration (HPC) such that the resulting model generalizes well to unseen data. As the expected generalization error cannot be optimized directly, it is estimated with a resampling strategy, such as holdout or cross-validation. This approach implicitly assumes that minimizing the validation error leads to improved generalization. However, since validation error estimates are inherently stochastic and depend on the resampling strategy, a natural question arises: Can excessive optimization of the validation error lead to overfitting at the HPO level, akin to overfitting in model training based on empirical risk minimization? In this paper, we investigate this phenomenon, which we term overtuning, a form of overfitting specific to HPO. Despite its practical relevance, overtuning has received limited attention in the HPO and AutoML literature. We provide a formal definition of overtuning and distinguish it from related concepts such as meta-overfitting. We then conduct a large-scale reanalysis of HPO benchmark data to assess the prevalence and severity of overtuning. Our results show that overtuning is more common than previously assumed, typically mild but occasionally severe. In approximately 10% of cases, overtuning leads to the selection of a seemingly optimal HPC with worse generalization error than the default or first configuration tried. We further analyze how factors such as performance metric, resampling strategy, dataset size, learning algorithm, and HPO method affect overtuning and discuss mitigation strategies. Our results highlight the need to raise awareness of overtuning, particularly in the small-data regime, indicating that further mitigation strategies should be studied.

Understanding the relationship between mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and driving behavior is essential for enhancing road safety, particularly among older adults. This study introduces a novel approach by incorporating specific trip destinations-such as home, work, medical appointments, social activities, and errands-using geohashing to analyze the driving habits of older drivers in Nebraska. We employed a two-fold methodology that combines data visualization with advanced machine learning models, including C5.0, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machines, to assess the effectiveness of these location-based variables in predicting cognitive impairment. Notably, the C5.0 model showed a robust and stable performance, achieving a median recall of 0.68, which indicates that our methodology accurately identifies cognitive impairment in drivers 68\% of the time. This emphasizes our model's capacity to reduce false negatives, a crucial factor given the profound implications of failing to identify impaired drivers. Our findings underscore the innovative use of life-space variables in understanding and predicting cognitive decline, offering avenues for early intervention and tailored support for affected individuals.