At Ahold Delhaize, there is an interest in using more complex machine learning techniques for sales forecasting. It is difficult to convince analysts, along with their superiors, to adopt these techniques since the models are considered to be 'black boxes,' even if they perform better than current models in use. We aim to explore the impact of contrastive explanations about large errors on users' attitudes towards a 'black-box' model. In this work, we make two contributions. The first is an algorithm, Monte Carlo Bounds for Reasonable Predictions (MC-BRP). Given a large error, MC-BRP determines (1) feature values that would result in a reasonable prediction, and (2) general trends between each feature and the target, based on Monte Carlo simulations. The second contribution is the evaluation of MC-BRP along with its outcomes, which has both objective and subjective components. We evaluate on a real dataset with real users from Ahold Delhaize by conducting a user study to determine if explanations generated by MC-BRP help users understand why a prediction results in a large error, and if this promotes trust in an automatically-learned model. The study shows that users are able to answer objective questions about the model's predictions with overall 81.7% accuracy when provided with these contrastive explanations. We also show that users who saw MC-BRP explanations understand why the model makes large errors in predictions significantly more than users in the control group.

As more data are produced each day, and faster, data stream mining is growing in importance, making clear the need for algorithms able to fast process these data. Data stream mining algorithms are meant to be solutions to extract knowledge online, specially tailored from continuous data problem. Many of the current algorithms for data stream mining have high processing and memory costs. Often, the higher the predictive performance, the higher these costs. To increase predictive performance without largely increasing memory and time costs, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, named Online Local Boosting (OLBoost), which can be combined into online decision tree algorithms to improve their predictive performance without modifying the structure of the induced decision trees. For such, OLBoost applies a boosting to small separate regions of the instances space. Experimental results presented in this paper show that by using OLBoost the online learning decision tree algorithms can significantly improve their predictive performance. Additionally, it can make smaller trees perform as good or better than larger trees.

In the paper, we focus on complexity of C5.0 algorithm for constructing decision tree classifier that is the models for the classification problem from machine learning. In classical case the decision tree is constructed in $O(hd(NM+N \log N))$ running time, where $M$ is a number of classes, $N$ is the size of a training data set, $d$ is a number of attributes of each element, $h$ is a tree height. Firstly, we improved the classical version, the running time of the new version is $O(h\cdot d\cdot N\log N)$. Secondly, we suggest a quantum version of this algorithm, which uses quantum subroutines like the amplitude amplification and the D{\"u}rr-H{\o}yer minimum search algorithms that are based on Grover's algorithm. The running time of the quantum algorithm is $O\big(h\cdot \sqrt{d}\log d \cdot N \log N\big)$ that is better than complexity of the classical algorithm.

Automated data-driven decision-making systems are ubiquitous across a wide spread of online as well as offline services. These systems, depend on sophisticated learning algorithms and available data, to optimize the service function for decision support assistance. However, there is a growing concern about the accountability and fairness of the employed models by the fact that often the available historic data is intrinsically discriminatory, i.e., the proportion of members sharing one or more sensitive attributes is higher than the proportion in the population as a whole when receiving positive classification, which leads to a lack of fairness in decision support system. A number of fairness-aware learning methods have been proposed to handle this concern. However, these methods tackle fairness as a static problem and do not take the evolution of the underlying stream population into consideration. In this paper, we introduce a learning mechanism to design a fair classifier for online stream based decision-making. Our learning model, FAHT (Fairness-Aware Hoeffding Tree), is an extension of the well-known Hoeffding Tree algorithm for decision tree induction over streams, that also accounts for fairness. Our experiments show that our algorithm is able to deal with discrimination in streaming environments, while maintaining a moderate predictive performance over the stream.

Data science is the application of statistics, programming and domain knowledge to generate insights into a problem that needs to be solved. The Harvard Business Review said Data Scientist is the sexiest job of the 21st century. How often has that article been referenced to convince people? The job'Data Scientist' has been around for decades, it was just not called "Data Scientist". Statisticians have used their knowledge and skills using machine learning techniques such as Logistic Regression and Random Forest for prediction and insights for decades.

Decision trees with binary splits are popularly constructed using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) methodology. For regression models, this approach recursively divides the data into two near-homogenous daughter nodes according to a split point that maximizes the reduction in sum of squares error (the impurity) along a particular variable. This paper aims to study the bias and adaptive properties of regression trees constructed with CART. In doing so, we derive an interesting connection between the bias and the mean decrease in impurity (MDI) measure of variable importance---a tool widely used for model interpretability---defined as the sum of impurity reductions over all non-terminal nodes in the tree. In particular, we show that the size of a terminal subnode for a variable is small when the MDI for that variable is large and that this relationship is exponential---confirming theoretically that decision trees with CART have small bias and are adaptive to signal strength and direction. Finally, we apply these individual tree bounds to tree ensembles and show consistency of Breiman's random forests. The context is surprisingly general and applies to a wide variety of multivariable data generating distributions and regression functions. The main technical tool is an exact characterization of the conditional probability content of the daughter nodes arising from an optimal split, in terms of the partial dependence function and reduction in impurity.

The'functional needs repair' category of the target variable only makes up about 7% of the whole set. The implication is that whatever algorithm you end up using it's probably going to learn the other two balanced classes a lot better than this one. Such is data science: the struggle is real. The first thing we're going to do is create an'age' variable for the waterpoints as that seems highly relevant. The'population' variable also has a highly right-skewed distribution so we're going to change that as well: The zeros inside of the'amount_tsh' are also probably NaNs so we're going to do something drastic and simplify it into 0s and 1s: One of the most important points we learned from the week before and something that will stay with me is the idea of coming up with a baseline model as fast as one can.

We study the problem of detecting adverse drug events in electronic healthcare records. The challenge in this work is to aggregate heterogeneous data types involving diagnosis codes, drug codes, as well as lab measurements. An earlier framework proposed for the same problem demonstrated promising predictive performance for the random forest classifier by using only lab measurements as data features. We extend this framework, by additionally including diagnosis and drug prescription codes, concurrently. In addition, we employ a recursive feature selection mechanism on top, that extracts the top-k most important features. Our experimental evaluation on five medical datasets of adverse drug events and six different classifiers, suggests that the integration of these additional features provides substantial and statistically significant improvements in terms of AUC, while employing medically relevant features.

Since its inception in the 1980s, ID3 has become one of the most successful and widely used algorithms for learning decision trees. However, its theoretical properties remain poorly understood. In this work, we analyze the heuristic of growing a decision tree with ID3 for a limited number of iterations $t$ and given that nodes are split as in the case of exact information gain and probability computations. In several settings, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence that the TopDown variant of ID3, introduced by Kearns and Mansour (1996), produces trees with optimal or near-optimal test error among all trees with $t$ internal nodes. We prove optimality in the case of learning conjunctions under product distributions and learning read-once DNFs with 2 terms under the uniform distribition. Using efficient dynamic programming algorithms, we empirically show that TopDown generates trees that are near-optimal ($\sim \%1$ difference from optimal test error) in a large number of settings for learning read-once DNFs under product distributions.

This work demonstrates the execution of a novel process model for knowledge discovery and data mining for metabolomics (MeKDDaM). It aims to illustrate MeKDDaM process model applicability using four different real-world applications and to highlight its strengths and unique features. The demonstrated applications provide coverage for metabolite profiling, target analysis, and metabolic fingerprinting. The data analysed in these applications were captured by chromatographic separation and mass spectrometry technique (LC-MS), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) and involve the analysis of plant, animal, and human samples. The process was executed using both data-driven and hypothesis-driven data mining approaches in order to perform various data mining goals and tasks by applying a number of data mining techniques. The applications were selected to achieve a range of analytical goals and research questions and to provide coverage for metabolite profiling, target analysis, and metabolic fingerprinting using datasets that were captured by NMR, LC-MS, and FT-IR using samples of a plant, animal, and human origin. The process was applied using an implementation environment which was created in order to provide a computer-aided realisation of the process model execution.