Random Forest ensembles are a strong baseline for tabular prediction tasks, but their reliance on hundreds of deep trees often results in high inference latency and memory demands, limiting deployment in latency-sensitive or resource-constrained environments. We introduce DiNo (Distance with Nodes) and RanBu (Random Bushes), two shallow-forest methods that convert a small set of depth-limited trees into efficient, distance-weighted predictors. DiNo measures cophenetic distances via the most recent common ancestor of observation pairs, while RanBu applies kernel smoothing to Breiman's classical proximity measure. Both approaches operate entirely after forest training: no additional trees are grown, and tuning of the single bandwidth parameter $h$ requires only lightweight matrix-vector operations. Across three synthetic benchmarks and 25 public datasets, RanBu matches or exceeds the accuracy of full-depth random forests-particularly in high-noise settings-while reducing training plus inference time by up to 95\%. DiNo achieves the best bias-variance trade-off in low-noise regimes at a modest computational cost. Both methods extend directly to quantile regression, maintaining accuracy with substantial speed gains. The implementation is available as an open-source R/C++ package at https://github.com/tiagomendonca/dirf. We focus on structured tabular random samples (i.i.d.), leaving extensions to other modalities for future work.

Mixed-integer programming (MIP) has emerged as a powerful framework for learning optimal decision trees. Yet, existing MIP approaches for regression tasks are either limited to purely binary features or become computationally intractable when continuous, large-scale data are involved. Naively binarizing continuous features sacrifices global optimality and often yields needlessly deep trees. We recast the optimal regression-tree training as a two-stage optimization problem and propose Reduced-Space Optimal Regression Trees (RS-ORT) - a specialized branch-and-bound (BB) algorithm that branches exclusively on tree-structural variables. This design guarantees the algorithm's convergence and its independence from the number of training samples. Leveraging the model's structure, we introduce several bound tightening techniques - closed-form leaf prediction, empirical threshold discretization, and exact depth-1 subtree parsing - that combine with decomposable upper and lower bounding strategies to accelerate the training. The BB node-wise decomposition enables trivial parallel execution, further alleviating the computational intractability even for million-size datasets. Based on the empirical studies on several regression benchmarks containing both binary and continuous features, RS-ORT also delivers superior training and testing performance than state-of-the-art methods. Notably, on datasets with up to 2,000,000 samples with continuous features, RS-ORT can obtain guaranteed training performance with a simpler tree structure and a better generalization ability in four hours.

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) necessitates an understanding of their driving behavior to enhance traffic safety and develop smart driving systems. This study compares classical and machine learning models for EV car following behavior. Classical models include the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM), Optimum Velocity Model (OVM), Optimal Velocity Relative Velocity (OVRV), and a simplified CACC model, while the machine learning approach employs a Random Forest Regressor. Using a real world dataset of an EV following an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle under varied driving conditions, we calibrated classical model parameters by minimizing the RMSE between predictions and real data. The Random Forest model predicts acceleration using spacing, speed, and gap type as inputs. Results demonstrate the Random Forest's superior accuracy, achieving RMSEs of 0.0046 (medium gap), 0.0016 (long gap), and 0.0025 (extra long gap). Among physics based models, CACC performed best, with an RMSE of 2.67 for long gaps. These findings highlight the machine learning model's performance across all scenarios. Such models are valuable for simulating EV behavior and analyzing mixed autonomy traffic dynamics in EV integrated environments.

We evaluate the performance of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) for estimating the average treatment effect in missing data scenarios under varying levels of positivity violations. We employ model- and design-based simulations, with the latter using undersmoothed highly adaptive lasso on the 'WASH Benefits Bangladesh' dataset to mimic real-world complexities. Five missingness-directed acyclic graphs are considered, capturing common missing data mechanisms in epidemiological research, particularly in one-point exposure studies. These mechanisms include also not-at-random missingness in the exposure, outcome, and confounders. We compare eight missing data methods in conjunction with TMLE as the analysis method, distinguishing between non-multiple imputation (non-MI) and multiple imputation (MI) approaches. The MI approaches use both parametric and machine-learning models. Results show that non-MI methods, particularly complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model, exhibit lower bias compared to all other evaluated missing data methods and greater robustness against positivity violations across. In Comparison MI with classification and regression trees (CART) achieve lower root mean squared error, while often maintaining nominal coverage rates. Our findings highlight the trade-offs between bias and coverage, and we recommend using complete cases with TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model for bias reduction and MI CART when accurate confidence intervals are the priority.

International Journal of Applied Mathematics Volume 38 No. 5 s, 2025 ISSN: 1311 - 1728 (printed version); ISSN: 1314 - 8060 (on - line version) Received: August 0 7, 2025 550 Abstract The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their effectiveness. This study introduces a machine learning - based early warning system that utilizes real - time digital and macroeconomic signals to identify financial distress in near real - time. Using a panel dataset of 750 households tracked over three monitoring rounds spa nning 13 months, the framework combines socioeconomic attributes, macroeconomic indicators (such as GDP growth, inflation, and foreign exchange fluctuations), and digital economy measures (including ICT demand and market volatility). Through data preproces sing and feature engineering, we introduce lagged variables, volatility measures, and interaction terms to capture both gradual and sudden changes in financial stability. We benchmark baseline classifiers, such as logistic regression and decision trees, ag ainst advanced ensemble models including random forests, XGBoost, and LightGBM. Our results indicate that the engineered features from the digital economy significantly enhance predictive accuracy. The system performs reliably for both binary distress dete ction and multi - class severity classification, with SHAP - based explanations identifying inflation volatility and ICT demand as key predictors. Crucially, the framework is International Journal of Applied Mathematics Volume 38 No. 5 s, 2025 ISSN: 1311 - 1728 (printed version); ISSN: 1314 - 8060 (on - line version) Received: August 0 7, 2025 551 By implementing machine learning in a transparent and interpretable manner, this study demonstrates the feasibility and impact of providing near - real - time early warnings of financial distress. This offers actionable insights that can strengthen household resilience and guide preemptive intervention strategies. Keywords: Financial Distress, Early Warning Systems, Machine Learning, Digital Economy, Temporal Classification, Explainable AI 1. Introduction 1.1 Background and Motivation The prediction of financial distress has long been recognized as a critical element for ensuring economic resilience and mitigating systemic risk across households, firms, and national economies.

Decision trees are a ubiquitous model for classification and regression tasks due to their interpretability and efficiency. However, solving the optimal decision tree (ODT) problem remains a challenging combinatorial optimization task. Even for the simplest splitting rules--axis-parallel hyperplanes--it is NP-hard to optimize. In Part I of this series, we rigorously defined the proper decision tree model through four axioms and, based on these, introduced four formal definitions of the ODT problem. From these definitions, we derived four generic algorithms capable of solving ODT problems for arbitrary decision trees satisfying the axioms. We also analyzed the combinatorial geometric properties of hypersurfaces, showing that decision trees defined by polynomial hypersurface splitting rules satisfy the proper axioms that we proposed. In this second paper (Part II) of this two-part series, building on the algorithmic and geometric foundations established in Part I, we introduce the first hypersurface decision tree (HODT) algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, existing optimal decision tree methods are, to date, limited to hyperplane splitting rules--a special case of hypersurfaces--and rely on general-purpose solvers. In contrast, our HODT algorithm addresses the general hypersurface decision tree model without requiring external solvers. Using synthetic datasets generated from ground-truth hyperplane decision trees, we vary tree size, data size, dimensionality, and label and feature noise. Results showing that our algorithm recovers the ground truth more accurately than axis-parallel trees and exhibits greater robustness to noise. We also analyzed generalization performance across 30 real-world datasets, showing that HODT can achieve up to 30% higher accuracy than the state-of-the-art optimal axis-parallel decision tree algorithm when tree complexity is properly controlled.

In the first paper (part I) of this series of two, we introduce four novel definitions of the ODT problems: three for size-constrained trees and one for depth-constrained trees. These definitions are stated unambiguously through executable recursive programs, satisfying all criteria we propose for a formal specification. In this sense, they resemble the "standard form" used in the study of general-purpose solvers. Grounded in algebraic programming theory-a relational formalism for deriving correct-by-construction algorithms from specifications-we can not only establish the existence or nonexistence of dynamic programming solutions but also derive them constructively whenever they exist. Consequently, the four generic problem definitions yield four novel optimal algorithms for ODT problems with arbitrary splitting rules that satisfy the axioms and objective functions of a given form. These algorithms encompass the known depth-constrained, axis-parallel ODT algorithm as the special case, while providing a unified, efficient, and elegant solution for the general ODT problem. In Part II, we present the first optimal hypersurface decision tree algorithm and provide comprehensive experiments against axis-parallel decision tree algorithms, including heuristic CART and state-of-the-art optimal methods. The results demonstrate the significant potential of decision trees with flexible splitting rules. Moreover, our framework is readily extendable to support algorithms for constructing even more flexible decision trees, including those with mixed splitting rules.

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tracking may be a viable solution for defense assets that must be stored in accordance with security guidelines. However, poor sensor specificity (vulnerabilities include long range detection, spoofing, and counterfeiting) can lead to erroneous detection and operational security events. We present a supervised learning simulation with realistic Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) data and Decision Tree classification in a Computer Assisted Design (CAD)-modeled floor plan that encapsulates some of the challenges encountered in defense storage. In this work, we focused on classifying 12 lab zones (LabZoneA-L) to perform location inference. The raw dataset had approximately 980,000 reads. Class frequencies were imbalanced, and class weights were calculated to account for class imbalance in this multi-class setting. The model, trained on stratified subsamples to 5,000 balanced observations, yielded an overall accuracy of 34.2% and F1-scores greater than 0.40 for multiple zones (Zones F, G, H, etc.). However, rare classes (most notably LabZoneC) were often misclassified, even with the use of class weights. An adjacency-aware confusion matrix was calculated to allow better interpretation of physically adjacent zones. These results suggest that RSSI-based decision trees can be applied in realistic simulations to enable zone-level anomaly detection or misplacement monitoring for defense supply logistics. Reliable classification performance in low-coverage and low-signal zones could be improved with better antenna placement or additional sensors and sensor fusion with other modalities.

Public and nonprofit organizations often hesitate to adopt AI tools because most models are opaque even though standard approaches typically analyze aggregate patterns rather than offering actionable, case-level guidance. This study tests a practitioner-in-the-loop workflow that pairs transparent decision-tree models with large language models (LLMs) to improve predictive accuracy, interpretability, and the generation of practical insights. Using data from an ongoing college-success program, we build interpretable decision trees to surface key predictors. We then provide each tree's structure to an LLM, enabling it to reproduce case-level predictions grounded in the transparent models. Practitioners participate throughout feature engineering, model design, explanation review, and usability assessment, ensuring that field expertise informs the analysis at every stage. Results show that integrating transparent models, LLMs, and practitioner input yields accurate, trustworthy, and actionable case-level evaluations, offering a viable pathway for responsible AI adoption in the public and nonprofit sectors.

Interpretable reinforcement learning policies are essential for high-stakes decision-making, yet optimizing decision tree policies in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) remains challenging. We propose SPOT, a novel method for computing decision tree policies, which formulates the optimization problem as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). To enhance efficiency, we employ a reduced-space branch-and-bound approach that decouples the MDP dynamics from tree-structure constraints, enabling efficient parallel search. This significantly improves runtime and scalability compared to previous methods. Our approach ensures that each iteration yields the optimal decision tree. Experimental results on standard benchmarks demonstrate that SPOT achieves substantial speedup and scales to larger MDPs with a significantly higher number of states. The resulting decision tree policies are interpretable and compact, maintaining transparency without compromising performance. These results demonstrate that our approach simultaneously achieves interpretability and scalability, delivering high-quality policies an order of magnitude faster than existing approaches.