A decision tree is commonly restricted to use a single hyperplane to split the covariate space at each of its internal nodes. It often requires a large number of nodes to achieve high accuracy, hurting its interpretability. In this paper, we propose convex polytope trees (CPT) to expand the family of decision trees by an interpretable generalization of their decision boundary. The splitting function at each node of CPT is based on the logical disjunction of a community of differently weighted probabilistic linear decision-makers, which also geometrically corresponds to a convex polytope in the covariate space. We use a nonparametric Bayesian prior at each node to infer the community's size, encouraging simpler decision boundaries by shrinking the number of polytope facets. We develop a greedy method to efficiently construct CPT and scalable end-to-end training algorithms for the tree parameters when the tree structure is given. We empirically demonstrate the efficiency of CPT over existing state-of-the-art decision trees in several real-world classification and regression tasks from diverse domains.

Regression tree (RT) has been widely used in machine learning and data mining community. Given a target data for prediction, a regression tree is first constructed based on a training dataset before making prediction for each leaf node. In practice, the performance of RT relies heavily on the local mean of samples from an individual node during the tree construction/prediction stage, while neglecting the global information from different nodes, which also plays an important role. To address this issue, we propose a novel regression tree, named James-Stein Regression Tree (JSRT) by considering global information from different nodes. Specifically, we incorporate the global mean information based on James-Stein estimator from different nodes during the construction/predicton stage. Besides, we analyze the generalization error of our method under the mean square error (MSE) metric. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our method, and demonstrate the superiority of our method over other RT prediction methods.

We study the effectiveness of replacing the split strategy for the state-of-the-art online tree learner, Hoeffding Tree, with a rigorous but more eager splitting strategy. Our method, Hoeffding AnyTime Tree (HATT), uses the Hoeffding Test to determine whether the current best candidate split is superior to the current split, with the possibility of revision, while Hoeffding Tree aims to determine whether the top candidate is better than the second best and fixes it for all posterity. Our method converges to the ideal batch tree while Hoeffding Tree does not. Decision tree ensembles are widely used in practice, and in this work, we study the efficacy of HATT as a base learner for online bagging and online boosting ensembles. On UCI and synthetic streams, the success of Hoeffding AnyTime Tree in terms of prequential accuracy over Hoeffding Tree is established. HATT as a base learner component outperforms HT within a 0.05 significance level for the majority of tested ensembles on what we believe is the largest and most comprehensive set of testbenches in the online learning literature. Our results indicate that HATT is a superior alternative to Hoeffding Tree in a large number of ensemble settings.

This article is meant to explain the regression tree machine learning model without any buzzwords and scientific expressions, so you don't need any pre-requisite knowledge or a Computer Science/Math degree to understand it. As one of the most commonly used machine learning models, a decision tree is usually used for classification purposes. However, it can also be used to predict continuous numeric values. In this article, I am going to introduce a specific type of decision tree s-- the regression tree. Don't worry if you're not a Data Scientist or Data Analyst, I will try my best to help you understand how regression trees are built without any formulas and equations.

Thus far in our journey through Machine Learning Basics, we covered several topics. We investigated some regression algorithms, classification algorithms and algorithms that can be used for both types of problems (SVM, Decision Trees and Random Forest). Apart from that, we dipped our toes in unsupervised learning, saw how we can use this type of learning for clustering and learned about several clustering techniques. Finally, in the previous article, we talked about regularization and machine learning model performance. In all these articles, we used Python for "from the scratch" implementations and libraries like TensorFlow, Pytorch and SciKit Learn.

For a successful business, engaging in an effective campaign is a key task for marketers. Most previous studies used various mathematical models to segment customers without considering the correlation between customer segmentation and a campaign. This work presents a conceptual model by studying the significant campaign-dependent variables of customer targeting in customer segmentation context. In this way, the processes of customer segmentation and targeting thus can be linked and solved together. The outcomes of customer segmentation of this study could be more meaningful and relevant for marketers. This investigation applies a customer life time value (LTV) model to assess the fitness between targeted customer groups and marketing strategies. To integrate customer segmentation and customer targeting, this work uses the genetic algorithm (GA) to determine the optimized marketing strategy. Later, we suggest using C&RT (Classification and Regression Tree) in SPSS PASW Modeler as the replacement to Genetic Algorithm technique to accomplish these results. We also suggest using LOSSYCOUNTING and Counting Bloom Filter to dynamically design the right and up-to-date offer to the right customer.

The thesis explores the role machine learning methods play in creating intuitive computational models of neural processing. Combined with interpretability techniques, machine learning could replace human modeler and shift the focus of human effort to extracting the knowledge from the ready-made models and articulating that knowledge into intuitive descroptions of reality. This perspective makes the case in favor of the larger role that exploratory and data-driven approach to computational neuroscience could play while coexisting alongside the traditional hypothesis-driven approach. We exemplify the proposed approach in the context of the knowledge representation taxonomy with three research projects that employ interpretability techniques on top of machine learning methods at three different levels of neural organization. The first study (Chapter 3) explores feature importance analysis of a random forest decoder trained on intracerebral recordings from 100 human subjects to identify spectrotemporal signatures that characterize local neural activity during the task of visual categorization. The second study (Chapter 4) employs representation similarity analysis to compare the neural responses of the areas along the ventral stream with the activations of the layers of a deep convolutional neural network. The third study (Chapter 5) proposes a method that allows test subjects to visually explore the state representation of their neural signal in real time. This is achieved by using a topology-preserving dimensionality reduction technique that allows to transform the neural data from the multidimensional representation used by the computer into a two-dimensional representation a human can grasp. The approach, the taxonomy, and the examples, present a strong case for the applicability of machine learning methods to automatic knowledge discovery in neuroscience.

It is often critical for prediction models to be robust to distributional shifts between training and testing data. Viewed from a causal perspective, the challenge is to distinguish the stable causal relationships from the unstable spurious correlations across shifts. We describe a causal transfer random forest (CTRF) that combines existing training data with a small amount of data from a randomized experiment to train a model which is robust to the feature shifts and therefore transfers to a new targeting distribution. Theoretically, we justify the robustness of the approach against feature shifts with the knowledge from causal learning. Empirically, we evaluate the CTRF using both synthetic data experiments and real-world experiments in the Bing Ads platform, including a click prediction task and in the context of an end-to-end counterfactual optimization system. The proposed CTRF produces robust predictions and outperforms most baseline methods compared in the presence of feature shifts.

We propose a simple extension of top-down decision tree learning heuristics such as ID3, C4.5, and CART. Our algorithm achieves provable guarantees for all target functions $f: \{-1,1\}^n \to \{-1,1\}$ with respect to the uniform distribution, circumventing impossibility results showing that existing heuristics fare poorly even for simple target functions. The crux of our extension is a new splitting criterion that takes into account the correlations between $f$ and small subsets of its attributes. The splitting criteria of existing heuristics (e.g. Gini impurity and information gain), in contrast, are based solely on the correlations between $f$ and its individual attributes. Our algorithm satisfies the following guarantee: for all target functions $f : \{-1,1\}^n \to \{-1,1\}$, sizes $s\in \mathbb{N}$, and error parameters $\epsilon$, it constructs a decision tree of size $s^{\tilde{O}((\log s)^2/\epsilon^2)}$ that achieves error $\le O(\mathsf{opt}_s) + \epsilon$, where $\mathsf{opt}_s$ denotes the error of the optimal size $s$ decision tree. A key technical notion that drives our analysis is the noise stability of $f$, a well-studied smoothness measure.

Hoeffding trees are the state-of-the-art methods in decision tree learning for evolving data streams. These very fast decision trees are used in many real applications where data is created in real-time due to their efficiency. In this work, we extricate explanations for why these streaming decision tree algorithms for stationary and nonstationary streams (HoeffdingTree and HoeffdingAdaptiveTree) work as well as they do. In doing so, we identify thirteen unique unspecified design decisions in both the theoretical constructs and their implementations with substantial and consequential effects on predictive accuracy---design decisions that, without necessarily changing the essence of the algorithms, drive algorithm performance. We begin a larger conversation about explainability not just of the model but also of the processes responsible for an algorithm's success.