Recent work has shown that not only decision trees (DTs) may not be interpretable but also proposed a polynomial-time algorithm for computing one PI-explanation of a DT. This paper shows that for a wide range of classifiers, globally referred to as decision graphs, and which include decision trees and binary decision diagrams, but also their multi-valued variants, there exist polynomial-time algorithms for computing one PI-explanation. In addition, the paper also proposes a polynomial-time algorithm for computing one contrastive explanation. These novel algorithms build on explanation graphs (XpG's). XpG's denote a graph representation that enables both theoretical and practically efficient computation of explanations for decision graphs. Furthermore, the paper pro- poses a practically efficient solution for the enumeration of explanations, and studies the complexity of deciding whether a given feature is included in some explanation. For the concrete case of decision trees, the paper shows that the set of all contrastive explanations can be enumerated in polynomial time. Finally, the experimental results validate the practical applicability of the algorithms proposed in the paper on a wide range of publicly available benchmarks.

We present a novel approach for the problem of frequency estimation in data streams that is based on optimization and machine learning. Contrary to state-of-the-art streaming frequency estimation algorithms, which heavily rely on random hashing to maintain the frequency distribution of the data steam using limited storage, the proposed approach exploits an observed stream prefix to near-optimally hash elements and compress the target frequency distribution. We develop an exact mixed-integer linear optimization formulation, which enables us to compute optimal or near-optimal hashing schemes for elements seen in the observed stream prefix; then, we use machine learning to hash unseen elements. Further, we develop an efficient block coordinate descent algorithm, which, as we empirically show, produces high quality solutions, and, in a special case, we are able to solve the proposed formulation exactly in linear time using dynamic programming. We empirically evaluate the proposed approach both on synthetic datasets and on real-world search query data. We show that the proposed approach outperforms existing approaches by one to two orders of magnitude in terms of its average (per element) estimation error and by 45-90% in terms of its expected magnitude of estimation error.

Recent work proposed $\delta$-relevant inputs (or sets) as a probabilistic explanation for the predictions made by a classifier on a given input. $\delta$-relevant sets are significant because they serve to relate (model-agnostic) Anchors with (model-accurate) PI- explanations, among other explanation approaches. Unfortunately, the computation of smallest size $\delta$-relevant sets is complete for ${NP}^{PP}$, rendering their computation largely infeasible in practice. This paper investigates solutions for tackling the practical limitations of $\delta$-relevant sets. First, the paper alternatively considers the computation of subset-minimal sets. Second, the paper studies concrete families of classifiers, including decision trees among others. For these cases, the paper shows that the computation of subset-minimal $\delta$-relevant sets is in NP, and can be solved with a polynomial number of calls to an NP oracle. The experimental evaluation compares the proposed approach with heuristic explainers for the concrete case of the classifiers studied in the paper, and confirms the advantage of the proposed solution over the state of the art.

We are happy to open source TensorFlow Decision Forests (TF-DF). TF-DF is a collection of production-ready state-of-the-art algorithms for training, serving and interpreting decision forest models (including random forests and gradient boosted trees). You can now use these models for classification, regression and ranking tasks - with the flexibility and composability of the TensorFlow and Keras. Decision forests are a family of machine learning algorithms with quality and speed competitive with (and often favorable to) neural networks, especially when you're working with tabular data. They're built from many decision trees, which makes them easy to use and understand - and you can take advantage of a plethora of interpretability tools and techniques that already exist today.

Temporal logic inference is the process of extracting formal descriptions of system behaviors from data in the form of temporal logic formulas. The existing temporal logic inference methods mostly neglect uncertainties in the data, which results in limited applicability of such methods in real-world deployments. In this paper, we first investigate the uncertainties associated with trajectories of a system and represent such uncertainties in the form of interval trajectories. We then propose two uncertainty-aware signal temporal logic (STL) inference approaches to classify the undesired behaviors and desired behaviors of a system. Instead of classifying finitely many trajectories, we classify infinitely many trajectories within the interval trajectories. In the first approach, we incorporate robust semantics of STL formulas with respect to an interval trajectory to quantify the margin at which an STL formula is satisfied or violated by the interval trajectory. The second approach relies on the first learning algorithm and exploits the decision tree to infer STL formulas to classify behaviors of a given system. The proposed approaches also work for non-separable data by optimizing the worst-case robustness in inferring an STL formula. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms in two case studies, where the proposed algorithms show reductions in the computation time by up to four orders of magnitude in comparison with the sampling-based baseline algorithms (for a dataset with 800 sampled trajectories in total).

Network activities recognition has always been a significant component of intrusion detection. However, with the increasing network traffic flow and complexity of network behavior, it is becoming more and more difficult to identify the specific behavior quickly and accurately by user network monitoring software. It also requires the system security staff to pay close attention to the latest intrusion monitoring technology and methods. All of these greatly increase the difficulty and complexity of intrusion detection tasks. The application of machine learning methods based on supervised classification technology would help to liberate the network security staff from the heavy and boring tasks. A finetuned model would accurately recognize user behavior, which could provide persistent monitoring with a relative high accuracy and good adaptability. Finally, the results of network activities recognition by J48 and Na\"ive Bayes algorithms are introduced and evaluated.

We study piece-wise constant signals corrupted by additive Gaussian noise over a $d$-dimensional lattice. Data of this form naturally arise in a host of applications, and the tasks of signal detection or testing, de-noising and estimation have been studied extensively in the statistical and signal processing literature. In this paper we consider instead the problem of partition recovery, i.e.~of estimating the partition of the lattice induced by the constancy regions of the unknown signal, using the computationally-efficient dyadic classification and regression tree (DCART) methodology proposed by \citep{donoho1997cart}. We prove that, under appropriate regularity conditions on the shape of the partition elements, a DCART-based procedure consistently estimates the underlying partition at a rate of order $\sigma^2 k^* \log (N)/\kappa^2$, where $k^*$ is the minimal number of rectangular sub-graphs obtained using recursive dyadic partitions supporting the signal partition, $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance, $\kappa$ is the minimal magnitude of the signal difference among contiguous elements of the partition and $N$ is the size of the lattice. Furthermore, under stronger assumptions, our method attains a sharper estimation error of order $\sigma^2\log(N)/\kappa^2$, independent of $ k^*$, which we show to be minimax rate optimal. Our theoretical guarantees further extend to the partition estimator based on the optimal regression tree estimator (ORT) of \cite{chatterjee2019adaptive} and to the one obtained through an NP-hard exhaustive search method. We corroborate our theoretical findings and the effectiveness of DCART for partition recovery in simulations.

Predictive machine learning models often lack interpretability, resulting in low trust from model end users despite having high predictive performance. While many model interpretation approaches return top important features to help interpret model predictions, these top features may not be well-organized or intuitive to end users, which limits model adoption rates. In this paper, we propose Intellige, a user-facing model explainer that creates user-digestible interpretations and insights reflecting the rationale behind model predictions. Intellige builds an end-to-end pipeline from machine learning platforms to end user platforms, and provides users with an interface for implementing model interpretation approaches and for customizing narrative insights. Intellige is a platform consisting of four components: Model Importer, Model Interpreter, Narrative Generator, and Narrative Exporter. We describe these components, and then demonstrate the effectiveness of Intellige through use cases at LinkedIn. Quantitative performance analyses indicate that Intellige's narrative insights lead to lifts in adoption rates of predictive model recommendations, as well as to increases in downstream key metrics such as revenue when compared to previous approaches, while qualitative analyses indicate positive feedback from end users.

We research into the clinical, biochemical and neuroimaging factors associated with the outcome of stroke patients to generate a predictive model using machine learning techniques for prediction of mortality and morbidity 3-months after admission. The dataset consisted of patients with ischemic stroke (IS) and non-traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) admitted to Stroke Unit of a European Tertiary Hospital prospectively registered. We identified the main variables for machine learning Random Forest (RF), generating a predictive model that can estimate patient mortality/morbidity according to the following groups: (1) IS + ICH, (2) IS, and (3) ICH. A total of 6022 patients were included: 4922 (mean age 71.9 ± 13.8 years) with IS and 1100 (mean age 73.3 ± 13.1 years) with ICH. NIHSS at 24, 48 h and axillary temperature at admission were the most important variables to consider for evolution of patients at 3-months. IS + ICH group was the most stable for mortality prediction [0.904 ± 0.025 of area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC)]. IS group presented similar results, although variability between experiments was slightly higher (0.909 ± 0.032 of AUC). ICH group was the one in which RF had more problems to make adequate predictions (0.9837 vs. 0.7104 of AUC). There were no major differences between IS and IS + ICH groups according to morbidity prediction (0.738 and 0.755 of AUC) but, after checking normality with a Shapiro Wilk test with the null hypothesis that the data follow a normal distribution, it was rejected with W = 0.93546 (p-value < 2.2e−16). Conditions required for a parametric test do not hold, and we performed a paired Wilcoxon Test assuming the null hypothesis that all the groups have the same performance. The null hypothesis was rejected with a value < 2.2e−16, so there are statistical differences between IS and ICH groups. In conclusion, machine learning algorithms RF can be effectively used in stroke patients for long-term outcome prediction of mortality and morbidity.

Interpretability of learning algorithms is crucial for applications involving critical decisions, and variable importance is one of the main interpretation tools. Shapley effects are now widely used to interpret both tree ensembles and neural networks, as they can efficiently handle dependence and interactions in the data, as opposed to most other variable importance measures. However, estimating Shapley effects is a challenging task, because of the computational complexity and the conditional expectation estimates. Accordingly, existing Shapley algorithms have flaws: a costly running time, or a bias when input variables are dependent. Therefore, we introduce SHAFF, SHApley eFfects via random Forests, a fast and accurate Shapley effect estimate, even when input variables are dependent. We show SHAFF efficiency through both a theoretical analysis of its consistency, and the practical performance improvements over competitors with extensive experiments. An implementation of SHAFF in C++ and R is available online.