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 Simulation of Human Behavior


Towards Cognitively-Faithful Decision-Making Models to Improve AI Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Using standard preference elicitation methods, researchers and practitioners build models of human decisions and judgments, which are then used to align AI behavior with that of humans. However, models commonly used in such elicitation processes often do not capture the true cognitive processes of human decision making, such as when people use heuristics to simplify information associated with a decision problem. As a result, models learned from people's decisions often do not align with their cognitive processes, and can not be used to validate the learning framework for generalization to other decision-making tasks. To address this limitation, we take an axiomatic approach to learning cognitively faithful decision processes from pairwise comparisons. Building on the vast literature characterizing the cognitive processes that contribute to human decision-making, and recent work characterizing such processes in pairwise comparison tasks, we define a class of models in which individual features are first processed and compared across alternatives, and then the processed features are then aggregated via a fixed rule, such as the Bradley-Terry rule. This structured processing of information ensures such models are realistic and feasible candidates to represent underlying human decision-making processes. We demonstrate the efficacy of this modeling approach in learning interpretable models of human decision making in a kidney allocation task, and show that our proposed models match or surpass the accuracy of prior models of human pairwise decision-making.


Evolution favours positively biased reasoning in sequential interactions with high future gains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Empirical evidence shows that human behaviour often deviates from game-theoretical rationality. For instance, humans may hold unrealistic expectations about future outcomes. As the evolutionary roots of such biases remain unclear, we investigate here how reasoning abilities and cognitive biases co-evolve using Evolutionary Game Theory. In our model, individuals in a population deploy a variety of unbiased and biased level-k reasoning strategies to anticipate others' behaviour in sequential interactions, represented by the Incremental Centipede Game. Positively biased reasoning strategies have a systematic inference bias towards higher but uncertain rewards, while negatively biased strategies reflect the opposite tendency. We find that selection consistently favours positively biased reasoning, with rational behaviour even going extinct. This bias co-evolves with bounded rationality, as the reasoning depth remains limited in the population. Interestingly, positively biased agents may co-exist with non-reasoning agents, thus pointing to a novel equilibrium. Longer games further promote positively biased reasoning, as they can lead to higher future rewards. The biased reasoning strategies proposed in this model may reflect cognitive phenomena like wishful thinking and defensive pessimism. This work therefore supports the claim that certain cognitive biases, despite deviating from rational judgment, constitute an adaptive feature to better cope with social dilemmas.


Bridging Minds and Machines: Toward an Integration of AI and Cognitive Science

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cognitive Science has profoundly shaped disciplines such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Philosophy, Psychology, Neuroscience, Linguistics, and Culture. Many breakthroughs in AI trace their roots to cognitive theories, while AI itself has become an indispensable tool for advancing cognitive research. This reciprocal relationship motivates a comprehensive review of the intersections between AI and Cognitive Science. By synthesizing key contributions from both perspectives, we observe that AI progress has largely emphasized practical task performance, whereas its cognitive foundations remain conceptually fragmented. We argue that the future of AI within Cognitive Science lies not only in improving performance but also in constructing systems that deepen our understanding of the human mind. Promising directions include aligning AI behaviors with cognitive frameworks, situating AI in embodiment and culture, developing personalized cognitive models, and rethinking AI ethics through cognitive co-evaluation.


Do Language Models Agree with Human Perceptions of Suspense in Stories?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Suspense is an affective response to narrative text that is believed to involve complex cognitive processes in humans. Several psychological models have been developed to describe this phenomenon and the circumstances under which text might trigger it. We replicate four seminal psychological studies of human perceptions of suspense, substituting human responses with those of different open-weight and closed-source LMs. We conclude that while LMs can distinguish whether a text is intended to induce suspense in people, LMs cannot accurately estimate the relative amount of suspense within a text sequence as compared to human judgments, nor can LMs properly capture the human perception for the rise and fall of suspense across multiple text segments. We probe the abilities of LM suspense understanding by adversarially permuting the story text to identify what cause human and LM perceptions of suspense to diverge. We conclude that, while LMs can superficially identify and track certain facets of suspense, they do not process suspense in the same way as human readers.


Organ-Agents: Virtual Human Physiology Simulator via LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled new possibilities in simulating complex physiological systems. We introduce Organ-Agents, a multi-agent framework that simulates human physiology via LLM-driven agents. Each Simulator models a specific system (e.g., cardiovascular, renal, immune). Training consists of supervised fine-tuning on system-specific time-series data, followed by reinforcement-guided coordination using dynamic reference selection and error correction. We curated data from 7,134 sepsis patients and 7,895 controls, generating high-resolution trajectories across 9 systems and 125 variables. Organ-Agents achieved high simulation accuracy on 4,509 held-out patients, with per-system MSEs <0.16 and robustness across SOFA-based severity strata. External validation on 22,689 ICU patients from two hospitals showed moderate degradation under distribution shifts with stable simulation. Organ-Agents faithfully reproduces critical multi-system events (e.g., hypotension, hyperlactatemia, hypoxemia) with coherent timing and phase progression. Evaluation by 15 critical care physicians confirmed realism and physiological plausibility (mean Likert ratings 3.9 and 3.7). Organ-Agents also enables counterfactual simulations under alternative sepsis treatment strategies, generating trajectories and APACHE II scores aligned with matched real-world patients. In downstream early warning tasks, classifiers trained on synthetic data showed minimal AUROC drops (<0.04), indicating preserved decision-relevant patterns. These results position Organ-Agents as a credible, interpretable, and generalizable digital twin for precision diagnosis, treatment simulation, and hypothesis testing in critical care.


Chinese 'Virtual Human' Salespeople Are Outperforming Their Real Human Counterparts

WIRED

The salesperson hawking Brother printers on Taobao works hard--like, really hard. At any time of the day, even when there's no audience on the Chinese ecommerce platform, the same woman wearing a white shirt and black skirt is always livestreaming, boasting about the various features of different office printers. She has a phone in one hand and often checks it as if to read a sales script or monitor the viewer comments coming in. "My friends, I've gotta plug this game-changing office tool that can double your workplace efficiency, " the salesperson said during one recent broadcast, trying to achieve the delicate balance between friendliness and precision that has come to define the billion-dollar livestream ecommerce industry in China. Occasionally, she greeted the invisible audience.


Helen Oyeyemi's Novel of Cognitive Dissonance

The New Yorker

Few fantasies are harder to wipe away than the romance of a clean slate. Every January, when we're twitchy with regret and self-loathing, advertisers blare, "New Year, new you," urging us to jettison our failures and start fresh. In fiction, self-reinvention is a perennial theme, often shadowed by the suspicion that it can't be done. Lately, novelists have put a political spin on the idea, counterposing hopeful acts of individual self-fashioning to the immovable weight of circumstance. Halle Butler's "The New Me" (2019), a millennial office satire, finds its temp heroine, Millie, trying to life-hack her way out of loneliness and professional drift--buy a plant, whiten her teeth, make friends, think positive.


AI That Helps Us Help Each Other: A Proactive System for Scaffolding Mentor-Novice Collaboration in Entrepreneurship Coaching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Entrepreneurship requires navigating open-ended, ill-defined problems: identifying risks, challenging assumptions, and making strategic decisions under deep uncertainty. Novice founders often struggle with these metacognitive demands, while mentors face limited time and visibility to provide tailored support. We present a human-AI coaching system that combines a domain-specific cognitive model of entrepreneurial risk with a large language model (LLM) to proactively scaffold both novice and mentor thinking. The system proactively poses diagnostic questions that challenge novices' thinking and helps both novices and mentors plan for more focused and emotionally attuned meetings. Critically, mentors can inspect and modify the underlying cognitive model, shaping the logic of the system to reflect their evolving needs. Through an exploratory field deployment, we found that using the system supported novice metacognition, helped mentors plan emotionally attuned strategies, and improved meeting depth, intentionality, and focus--while also surfaced key tensions around trust, misdiagnosis, and expectations of AI. We contribute design principles for proactive AI systems that scaffold metacognition and human-human collaboration in complex, ill-defined domains, offering implications for similar domains like healthcare, education, and knowledge work.


Understanding Human Limits in Pattern Recognition: A Computational Model of Sequential Reasoning in Rock, Paper, Scissors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

How do we predict others from patterns in their behavior and what are the computational constraints that limit this ability? We investigate these questions by modeling human behavior over repeated games of rock, paper, scissors from Brockbank & Vul (2024). Against algorithmic opponents that varied in strategic sophistication, people readily exploit simple transition patterns (e.g., consistently playing rock after paper) but struggle to detect more complex sequential dependencies. To understand the cognitive mechanisms underlying these abilities and their limitations, we deploy Hypothetical Minds (HM), a large language model-based agent that generates and tests hypotheses about opponent strategies, as a cognitive model of this behavior (Cross et al., 2024). We show that when applied to the same experimental conditions, HM closely mirrors human performance patterns, succeeding and failing in similar ways. To better understand the source of HM's failures and whether people might face similar cognitive bottlenecks in this context, we performed a series of ablations and augmentations targeting different components of the system. When provided with natural language descriptions of the opponents' strategies, HM successfully exploited 6/7 bot opponents with win rates >80% suggesting that accurate hypothesis generation is the primary cognitive bottleneck in this task. Further, by systematically manipulating the model's hypotheses through pedagogically-inspired interventions, we find that the model substantially updates its causal understanding of opponent behavior, revealing how model-based analyses can produce testable hypotheses about human cognition.


Transferring Expert Cognitive Models to Social Robots via Agentic Concept Bottleneck Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Successful group meetings, such as those implemented in group behavioral-change programs, work meetings, and other social contexts, must promote individual goal setting and execution while strengthening the social relationships within the group. Consequently, an ideal facilitator must be sensitive to the subtle dynamics of disengagement, difficulties with individual goal setting and execution, and interpersonal difficulties that signal a need for intervention. The challenges and cognitive load experienced by facilitators create a critical gap for an embodied technology that can interpret social exchanges while remaining aware of the needs of the individuals in the group and providing transparent recommendations that go beyond powerful but "black box" foundation models (FMs) that identify social cues. We address this important demand with a social robot co-facilitator that analyzes multimodal meeting data and provides discreet cues to the facilitator. The robot's reasoning is powered by an agentic concept bottleneck model (CBM), which makes decisions based on human-interpretable concepts like participant engagement and sentiments, ensuring transparency and trustworthiness. Our core contribution is a transfer learning framework that distills the broad social understanding of an FM into our specialized and transparent CBM. This concept-driven system significantly outperforms direct zero-shot FMs in predicting the need for intervention and enables real-time human correction of its reasoning. Critically, we demonstrate robust knowledge transfer: the model generalizes across different groups and successfully transfers the expertise of senior human facilitators to improve the performance of novices. By transferring an expert's cognitive model into an interpretable robotic partner, our work provides a powerful blueprint for augmenting human capabilities in complex social domains.