With the broader and highly successful usage of machine learning in industry and the sciences, there has been a growing demand for explainable AI. Interpretability and explanation methods for gaining a better understanding about the problem solving abilities and strategies of nonlinear Machine Learning such as Deep Learning (DL), LSTMs, and kernel methods are therefore receiving increased attention. In this work we aim to (1) provide a timely overview of this active emerging field and explain its theoretical foundations, (2) put interpretability algorithms to a test both from a theory and comparative evaluation perspective using extensive simulations, (3) outline best practice aspects i.e. how to best include interpretation methods into the standard usage of machine learning and (4) demonstrate successful usage of explainable AI in a representative selection of application scenarios. Finally, we discuss challenges and possible future directions of this exciting foundational field of machine learning.

Life's most valuable asset is health. Continuously understanding the state of our health and modeling how it evolves is essential if we wish to improve it. Given the opportunity that people live with more data about their life today than any other time in history, the challenge rests in interweaving this data with the growing body of knowledge to compute and model the health state of an individual continually. This dissertation presents an approach to build a personal model and dynamically estimate the health state of an individual by fusing multi-modal data and domain knowledge. The system is stitched together from four essential abstraction elements: 1. the events in our life, 2. the layers of our biological systems (from molecular to an organism), 3. the functional utilities that arise from biological underpinnings, and 4. how we interact with these utilities in the reality of daily life. Connecting these four elements via graph network blocks forms the backbone by which we instantiate a digital twin of an individual. Edges and nodes in this graph structure are then regularly updated with learning techniques as data is continuously digested. Experiments demonstrate the use of dense and heterogeneous real-world data from a variety of personal and environmental sensors to monitor individual cardiovascular health state. State estimation and individual modeling is the fundamental basis to depart from disease-oriented approaches to a total health continuum paradigm. Precision in predicting health requires understanding state trajectory. By encasing this estimation within a navigational approach, a systematic guidance framework can plan actions to transition a current state towards a desired one. This work concludes by presenting this framework of combining the health state and personal graph model to perpetually plan and assist us in living life towards our goals.

Players of a free-to-play game are divided into three main groups: non-paying active users, paying active users and inactive users. A State Space time series approach is then used to model the daily conversion rates between the different groups, i.e., the probability of transitioning from one group to another. This allows, not only for predictions on how these rates are to evolve, but also for a deeper understanding of the impact that in-game planning and calendar effects have. It is also used in this work for the detection of marketing and promotion campaigns about which no information is available. In particular, two different State Space formulations are considered and compared: an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average process and an Unobserved Components approach, in both cases with a linear regression to explanatory variables. Both yield very close estimations for covariate parameters, producing forecasts with similar performances for most transition rates. While the Unobserved Components approach is more robust and needs less human intervention in regards to model definition, it produces significantly worse forecasts for non-paying user abandonment probability. More critically, it also fails to detect a plausible marketing and promotion campaign scenario.

Single subject prediction of brain disorders in neuroimaging: promises and pitfalls.

Machine learning using behavioral and text data can result in highly accurate prediction models, but these are often very difficult to interpret. Linear models require investigating thousands of coefficients, while the opaqueness of nonlinear models makes things even worse. Rule-extraction techniques have been proposed to combine the desired predictive behaviour of complex "black-box" models with explainability. However, rule-extraction in the context of ultra-high-dimensional and sparse data can be challenging, and has thus far received scant attention. Because of the sparsity and massive dimensionality, rule-extraction might fail in their primary explainability goal as the black-box model may need to be replaced by many rules, leaving the user again with an incomprehensible model. To address this problem, we develop and test a rule-extraction methodology based on higher-level, less-sparse "metafeatures". We empirically validate the quality of the rules in terms of fidelity, explanation stability and accuracy over a collection of data sets, and benchmark their performance against rules extracted using the original features. Our analysis points to key trade-offs between explainability, fidelity, accuracy, and stability that Machine Learning researchers and practitioners need to consider. Results indicate that the proposed metafeatures approach leads to better trade-offs between these, and is better able to mimic the black-box model. There is an average decrease of the loss in fidelity, accuracy, and stability from using metafeatures instead of the original fine-grained features by respectively 18.08%, 20.15% and 17.73%, all statistically significant at a 5% significance level. Metafeatures thus improve a key "cost of explainability", which we define as the loss in fidelity when replacing a black-box with an explainable model.

Social media channels, such as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram, have altered our world forever. People are now increasingly connected than ever and reveal a sort of digital persona. Although social media certainly has several remarkable features, the demerits are undeniable as well. Recent studies have indicated a correlation between high usage of social media sites and increased depression. The present study aims to exploit machine learning techniques for detecting a probable depressed Twitter user based on both, his/her network behavior and tweets. For this purpose, we trained and tested classifiers to distinguish whether a user is depressed or not using features extracted from his/ her activities in the network and tweets. The results showed that the more features are used, the higher are the accuracy and F-measure scores in detecting depressed users. This method is a data-driven, predictive approach for early detection of depression or other mental illnesses. This study's main contribution is the exploration part of the features and its impact on detecting the depression level.

With the advancements in computing technology and web-based applications, data is increasingly generated in multi-dimensional form. This data is usually sparse due to the presence of a large number of users and fewer user interactions. To deal with this, the Nonnegative Tensor Factorization (NTF) based methods have been widely used. However existing factorization algorithms are not suitable to process in all three conditions of size, density, and rank of the tensor. Consequently, their applicability becomes limited. In this paper, we propose a novel fast and efficient NTF algorithm using the element selection approach. We calculate the element importance using Lipschitz continuity and propose a saturation point based element selection method that chooses a set of elements column-wise for updating to solve the optimization problem. Empirical analysis reveals that the proposed algorithm is scalable in terms of tensor size, density, and rank in comparison to the relevant state-of-the-art algorithms.

In this paper we provide a comprehensive introduction to knowledge graphs, which have recently garnered significant attention from both industry and academia in scenarios that require exploiting diverse, dynamic, large-scale collections of data. After a general introduction, we motivate and contrast various graph-based data models and query languages that are used for knowledge graphs. We discuss the roles of schema, identity, and context in knowledge graphs. We explain how knowledge can be represented and extracted using a combination of deductive and inductive techniques. We summarise methods for the creation, enrichment, quality assessment, refinement, and publication of knowledge graphs. We provide an overview of prominent open knowledge graphs and enterprise knowledge graphs, their applications, and how they use the aforementioned techniques. We conclude with high-level future research directions for knowledge graphs.

Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.

There is little argument about whether or not machine learning models are useful for applying to social systems. But if we take seriously George Box's dictum, or indeed the even older one that "the map is not the territory' (Korzybski, 1933), then there has been comparatively less systematic attention paid within the field to how machine learning models are wrong (Selbst et al., 2019) and seeing possible harms in that light. By "wrong" I do not mean in terms of making misclassifications, or even fitting over the'wrong' class of functions, but more fundamental mathematical/statistical assumptions, philosophical (in the sense used by Abbott, 1988) commitments about how we represent the world, and sociological processes of how models interact with target phenomena. This paper takes a particular model of machine learning research or application: one that its creators and deployers think provides a reliable way of interacting with the social world (whether that is through understanding, or in making predictions) without any intent to cause harm (McQuillan, 2018) and, in fact, a desire to not cause harm and instead improve the world, 1 for example as most explicitly in the various "{Data [Science], Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence} for [Social] Good" initiatives, and more widely in framings around "fairness" or "ethics." I focus on the almost entirely statistical modern version of machine learning, rather than eclipsed older visions (see section 3). While many of the limitations I discuss apply to the use of machine learning in any domain, I focus on applications to the social world in order to explore the domain where limitations are strongest and stickiest.