Physical activity (PA) plays an important role in maintaining and improving health. Daily steps have been a key PA measure that is easily accessible with common wearable devices. However, methods are lacking to recommend a personalized optimal distribution of daily steps over a period of time for the best of certain health biomarkers. In this paper, we fill this void based on the data from the All of Us Research Program which includes months of step counts as well as repeated measurements of key health biomarkers. We develop a new offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to learn personalized and optimal PA distributions associated with cardiometabolic risk, where the action is a function representing the daily step distribution over a period of time. Simulation studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed approach over existing continuous-action RL methods. The learned optimal policy from the All of Us data generally suggests people take more daily steps and also follow a more consistent pattern of PA over time while offering tailored recommendations for subgroups in blood glucose level, body mass index, blood pressure, age, and sex.

We introduce DeRegiME -- Deep Regime Mixture of Experts -- a direct multi-horizon probabilistic forecaster that separates latent uncertainty regimes from the underlying signal and softly assigns each forecast location to learned recurring regimes using a sparse variational Gaussian process (GP) whose nonstationary regime-mixing kernel and Student-t likelihood combine per-regime sub-kernels and noise processes via a shared gate. This yields a single sparse-GP posterior, not a mixture of GP experts. DeRegiME addresses a key limitation of neural forecasters: point forecasts discard residual uncertainty, and probabilistic heads -- whether single marginals, uninterpreted mixtures, quantile sets, or diffusion samples -- rarely expose the regime structure of the residual. Yet distribution shift in noisy heteroskedastic time series may be abrupt, gradual, or horizon-dependent and often appears in residual uncertainty rather than the conditional mean. DeRegiME yields an interpretable mean-residual-noise decomposition with a direct-sum feature-space representation that anchors regimes as clusters of residual similarity whose transitions surface as implicit changepoints. The effective number of regimes is pruned by the stick-breaking gate. We prove kernel validity and predictive-density propriety, and across ten benchmarks and three encoder grids DeRegiME improves negative log predictive density (NLPD) by 20.3% over the strongest encoder-matched baseline, a DeepAR/GluonTS-style dynamic Student-t head, with parallel gains on CRPS (3.0%) and MSE (4.7%). Improvements are consistent across all datasets, which span abrupt, gradual, and seasonal shifts.

In complex multivariate systems, interactions among variables are defined by dependency structures, often encoded as directed acyclic graphs ($\text{DAGs}$). However, dependency structures can vary across subjects, and ignoring this structural heterogeneity introduces bias and obscures subpopulation-specific dependencies. To address this, we propose Directed Acyclic Graph-based Dependency Clustering via Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (DAG-DC-ADMM), a unified framework built upon Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) that jointly learns cluster assignments and cluster-specific dependency structures. We encode acyclicity via a smooth constraint and integrate a groupwise truncated Lasso fusion penalty (gTLP) to cluster subjects based on their structural similarity. This yields a nonconvex optimization problem that incorporates sparsity, acyclicity, and structural consensus constraints. We address the nonconvexity by using the augmented Lagrangian method and solve it with an adapted version of the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) for difference-of-convex programs. For certain graph structures, such as upper triangular adjacency matrices, our algorithm is guaranteed to converge to a Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) point. Experiments demonstrate that our method recovers cluster-specific causal dependency structures with a high true positive rate and a low false discovery rate. This capability enables the robust discovery of heterogeneous dependencies across subjects where the subpopulation label is unknown.

Hallucination remains a central failure mode of large language models, but existing benchmarks operationalize it inconsistently across tasks such as summarization, question answering, retrieval-augmented generation, and agentic interaction. This fragmentation makes it unclear whether a mitigation that works in one setting actually reduces hallucinations across contexts. Current hallucination benchmarks either require human annotation and fixed references that may eventually be memorized, or rely on naturalistic observations often recorded in settings that are difficult to reproduce or test systematically. To enable further research on the root causes of hallucination, we introduce HALLUWORLD, an extensible benchmark framework grounded in an explicit reference-world formulation: a model hallucinates when it produces an observable claim that is false with respect to this reference world. Building on this view, we construct a family of synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmark environments in which the reference world is fully specified, the model's observable view is controlled, and hallucination labels can be generated automatically by construction. HALLUWORLD spans multiple settings that are classically representative for AI, i.e., gridworlds, chess, and realistic terminal tasks. This enables controlled variation of key factors such as world complexity, observability, temporal change, and source-conflict policy, allowing us to disentangle hallucinations into more fine-grained error categories. We evaluate frontier and open-weight language models across these settings and find consistent patterns across domains: perceptual hallucination on directly observed information is near-solved for frontier models, while multi-step state tracking and causal forward simulation are still difficult for frontier models, and are not generally solved by extended thinking.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating samples from unknown data distributions. Most popular stochastic differential equation-based diffusion models perturb the target distribution by adding Gaussian noise, transforming it into a simple prior, and then use denoising score matching, a consequence of Tweedie's formula, to learn the score function and generate clean samples from noise. However, non-Gaussian diffusion models with state-dependent diffusion coefficient have been largely underexplored, as have the corresponding Tweedie's formulae. In this work, we extend Tweedie's formula to important non-Gaussian processes, including geometric Brownian motion (GBM), squared Bessel (BESQ) processes, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes, thereby yielding the corresponding denoising score-matching objectives. We then apply the derived formulae to image and financial time series generation using GBM-and CIR-based diffusion models, and to empirical Bayes estimation under the BESQ setting. The reported experimental results demonstrate the potential of non-Gaussian models. Key words: Bessel processes, denoising score matching, diffusion models, empirical Bayes, financial time series, geometric Brownian motion, Tweedie's formula.

We study post-hoc Learning to Defer (L2D) through the lens of ideal distributions: divergence-regularized reweightings of the data distribution under which a model attains low loss. We define deferral via the density-ratio between a model's and an expert's ideals. Using the reduction from density-ratio estimation to class-probability estimation, we derive the DR CPE losses for post-hoc L2D scorers. Deferral decisions are then made by thresholding the scorer, allowing deferral rates to be adjusted without retraining. For KL-based ideal distributions, our deferral rules recovers Chow's rule under the original distribution and a connection to an expert-tilted Bayes posterior -- which incorporates the expert's performance -- depending on if the ideal distributions are joint or marginal distributions. Experimentally, our approach is competitive compared to common baselines and more robust across dataset settings. More broadly, our results cast post-hoc L2D as density-ratio learning between ideal distributions, bridging Chow-style rules, expert comparison, and elucidating connections to related learning settings including anomaly detection.

We study an online market-making problem in which a learner sequentially posts bid and ask prices for a single asset while interacting with traders holding private valuations. Unlike existing online learning formulations that assume fully censored feedback, we introduce an action-dependent feedback model inspired by real limit order books: when a trade occurs, the trader's valuation remains hidden, whereas when no trade occurs, informative feedback about supply and demand is revealed. We show that this additional information fundamentally changes the learnability of the problem. In the stochastic setting with i.i.d. market prices, we propose an elimination-based algorithm that achieves $O(\sqrt T)$ regret with high probability, without requiring any smoothness assumptions on the distribution of trader valuations. We then extend this result to a broad class of mean-reverting price processes by considering both local, autoregressive dynamics and a weaker global drift condition based on cumulative deviations from the mean. Under either assumption, we establish high-probability $O(\sqrt T)$ regret bounds, relying on a new concentration inequality of independent interest. Finally, in the adversarial setting with oblivious prices, we design an explore-then-perturb algorithm that guarantees $O(T^{2/3})$ regret in expectation. Our results quantify the value of observing the order book in online market making and demonstrate that even limited, action-dependent feedback can substantially improve regret guarantees compared to standard bandit feedback models.

Stochastic gradient methods are central to modern large-scale learning, but their use with incomplete covariates remains delicate since imputation schemes generally introduce systematic gradient biases, as shown for linear models. In this work, we prove that all parametric models exhibit similar gradient bias for various imputation procedures and characterize exactly the dependence on the missingness ratio vector $p$, with $O(\|p\|)$ as the leading term. We exploit this analysis to propose a simple debiasing procedure for stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with missing values based on Richardson extrapolation, which leverages the exact expression of the gradient bias. The key idea is to \emph{deliberately add missingness}: from an already incomplete observation, we generate a further-thinned version at a higher, controlled missingness level, and combine the two resulting stochastic gradients to cancel the leading bias term. We prove that one Richardson step reduces the gradient bias from $O(\|p\|)$ to $O(\|p\|^2)$ under several missingness scenarios. Our proposed method is computationally efficient, model-agnostic and applies to any parametric loss whose stochastic gradient can be computed after imputation. Furthermore, when missing indicators are independent, the population gradient bias is a multilinear polynomial in $p$ and depends only on population gradient errors induced by declaring a single coordinate missing. In this case, our method generalizes to a multi-step Richardson procedure which recursively cancels higher-order terms. Empirically, Richardson debiasing improves optimization and estimation across several generalized linear models and combines positively with widely used imputation procedures such as MICE. These results suggest that, somewhat counter-intuitively, adding controlled missingness on top of existing missing data can make stochastic learning from incomplete data more accurate.

Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced multivariate forecasting, they often suffer from a "normality bias" when trained end-to-end, sacrificing marginal calibration for joint coherence and consistently underestimating tail risk. To address this, we propose a Diffusion-Copula framework that explicitly decouples the learning of marginal distributions from their dependence structure. We employ deep Mixture Density Networks to capture heavy-tailed asset dynamics, followed by a Classification-Diffusion Copula to model the joint dependence. Applied to cryptocurrency markets, our approach demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines in forecasting systemic extremes of both marginal and joint events. Crucially, we demonstrate that while baseline models classify simultaneous market crashes as statistically impossible "Black Swans" (high surprise), our framework identifies them as "Expected Crashes" (low surprise), successfully preserving the correlation structure necessary for robust risk management during contagion events.

We study reinforcement learning for episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) whose transitions are modelled by a multinomial logistic (MNL) model. Existing algorithms for MNL mixture MDPs yield a regret of $\smash{\tilde{O}(dH^2\sqrt{T})}$ (Li et al., 2024), where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ the episode length, and $T$ the number of episodes. Inspired by the logistic bandit literature (Abeille et al., 2021; Faury et al., 2022; Boudart et al., 2026), we introduce a problem-dependent constant $\barσ\_T \leq 1/2$, measuring the normalised average variance of the optimal downstream value function along the learner's trajectory. We propose an algorithm achieving a regret of $\smash{\tilde{O}(dH^2\barσ\_T\sqrt{T})}$, which recovers the existing bound in the worst case and improves upon it for structured MDPs. For instance, for KL-constrained robust MDPs, $\barσ\_T = O(H^{-1})$, reducing the horizon dependence by a factor $H$. We further establish a matching $\smash{Ω(dH^2\barσ\_T\sqrt{T})}$ lower bound, proving minimax optimality (up to logarithmic factors) and fully characterising the regret complexity of MNL mixture MDPs for the first time.