Bayesian Reinforcement Learning has generated substantial interest recently, as it provides an elegant solution to the exploration-exploitation tradeoff in reinforcement learning.

Sound localization by barn owls is commonly modeled as a matching procedure where localization cues derived from auditory inputs are compared to stored templates. While the matching models can explain properties of neural responses, no model explains how the owl resolves spatial ambiguity in the localization cues to produce accurate localization near the center of gaze. Here, we examine two models for the barn owl's sound localization behavior. First, we consider a maximum likelihood estimator in order to further evaluate the cue matching model. Second, we consider a maximum a posteriori estimator to test if a Bayesian model with a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze can reproduce the owl's localization behavior. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator can not reproduce the owl's behavior, while the maximum a posteriori estimator is able to match the behavior. This result suggests that the standard cue matching model will not be sufficient to explain sound localization behavior in the barn owl. The Bayesian model provides a new framework for analyzing sound localization in the barn owl and leads to predictions about the owl's localization behavior.

Rosetta is one of the leading algorithms for protein structure prediction today. It is a Monte Carlo energy minimization method requiring many random restarts to find structures with low energy. In this paper we present a resampling technique for structure prediction of small alpha/beta proteins using Rosetta. From an initial round of Rosetta sampling, we learn properties of the energy landscape that guide a subsequent round of sampling toward lower-energy structures. Rather than attempt to fit the full energy landscape, we use feature selection methods--both L1-regularized linear regression and decision trees--to identify structural features that give rise to low energy. We then enrich these structural features in the second sampling round. Results are presented across a benchmark set of nine small alpha/beta proteins demonstrating that our methods seldom impair, and frequently improve, Rosetta's performance.

Semi-supervised learning, i.e. learning from both labeled and unlabeled data has received significant attention in the machine learning literature in recent years. Still our understanding of the theoretical foundations of the usefulness of unlabeled data remains somewhat limited. The simplest and the best understood situation is when the data is described by an identifiable mixture model, and where each class comes from a pure component. This natural setup and its implications ware analyzed in [11, 5]. One important result was that in certain regimes, labeled data becomes exponentially more valuable than unlabeled data. However, in most realistic situations, one would not expect that the data comes from a parametric mixture distribution with identifiable components.

Many perceptual processes and neural computations, such as speech recognition, motor control and learning, depend on the ability to measure and mark the passage of time. However, the processes that make such temporal judgements possible are unknown. A number of different hypothetical mechanisms have been advanced, all of which depend on the known, temporally predictable evolution of a neural or psychological state, possibly through oscillations or the gradual decay of a memory trace. Alternatively, judgements of elapsed time might be based on observations of temporally structured, but stochastic processes. Such processes need not be specific to the sense of time; typical neural and sensory processes contain at least some statistical structure across a range of time scales. Here, we investigate the statistical properties of an estimator of elapsed time which is based on a simple family of stochastic process.

We give a new class of outer bounds on the marginal polytope, and propose a cutting-plane algorithm for efficiently optimizing over these constraints. When combined with a concave upper bound on the entropy, this gives a new variational inference algorithm for probabilistic inference in discrete Markov Random Fields (MRFs). Valid constraints on the marginal polytope are derived through a series of projections onto the cut polytope. As a result, we obtain tighter upper bounds on the log-partition function. We also show empirically that the approximations of the marginals are significantly more accurate when using the tighter outer bounds. Finally, we demonstrate the advantage of the new constraints for finding the MAP assignment in protein structure prediction.

Recent experimental studies have focused on the specialization of different neural structures for different types of instrumental behavior. Recent theoretical work has provided normative accounts for why there should be more than one control system, and how the output of different controllers can be integrated. Two particlar controllers have been identified, one associated with a forward model and the prefrontal cortex and a second associated with computationally simpler, habitual, actor-critic methods and part of the striatum. We argue here for the normative appropriateness of an additional, but so far marginalized control system, associated with episodic memory, and involving the hippocampus and medial temporal cortices. We analyze in depth a class of simple environments to show that episodic control should be useful in a range of cases characterized by complexity and inferential noise, and most particularly at the very early stages of learning, long before habitization has set in. We interpret data on the transfer of control from the hippocampus to the striatum in the light of this hypothesis.

We investigate a family of inference problems on Markov models, where many sample paths are drawn from a Markov chain and partial information is revealed to an observer who attempts to reconstruct the sample paths. We present algorithms and hardness results for several variants of this problem which arise by revealing different information to the observer and imposing different requirements for the reconstruction of sample paths. Our algorithms are analogous to the classical Viterbi algorithm for Hidden Markov Models, which finds the single most probable sample path given a sequence of observations. Our work is motivated by an important application in ecology: inferring bird migration paths from a large database of observations.

We extend the Bayesian skill rating system TrueSkill to infer entire time series of skills of players by smoothing through time instead of filtering. The skill of each participating player, say, every year is represented by a latent skill variable which is affected by the relevant game outcomes that year, and coupled with the skill variables of the previous and subsequent year. Inference in the resulting factor graph is carried out by approximate message passing (EP) along the time series of skills. As before the system tracks the uncertainty about player skills, explicitly models draws, can deal with any number of competing entities and can infer individual skills from team results. We extend the system to estimate player-specific draw margins. Basedon these models we present an analysis of the skill curves of important players in the history of chess over the past 150 years. Results include plots of players' lifetime skill development as well as the ability to compare the skills of different players across time. Our results indicate that a) the overall playing strength has increased over the past 150 years, and b) that modelling a player's ability to force a draw provides significantly better predictive power.

Extensive games are a powerful model of multiagent decision-making scenarios with incomplete information. Finding a Nash equilibrium for very large instances of these games has received a great deal of recent attention. In this paper, we describe a new technique for solving large games based on regret minimization. In particular, we introduce the notion of counterfactual regret, which exploits the degree of incomplete information in an extensive game. We show how minimizing counterfactual regret minimizes overall regret, and therefore in self-play can be used to compute a Nash equilibrium. We demonstrate this technique in the domain of poker, showing we can solve abstractions of limit Texas Hold'em with as many as 10