Industry
Crisis as Reconfiguration of the Economic Complex Adaptive System.
Pushnoi, Grigorii (Independent Reasearcher)
MAMmodels are inherent in CAS as a holistic System. Multi-agent modeling is based on "down-up" Many surprising properties of the Economic Systems (such methodology, starting from the interaction of a multitude as sudden crises, jumps of macro-indices, catastrophe-like of "agents" to revealing the emergent properties of the changes of the system) can be understood deeper on the integral system.
An Analysis of the Robustness and Fragility of the Coagulation System
Menke, Nathan (Lincoln Medical and Mental Health Center) | Ward, Kevin (Virginia Commonweath University) | Desai, Umesh (Virginia Commonwealth University)
The coagulation system (CS) is a complex, inter-connected biological system with major physiological and pathological roles. Adaptive mechanisms such as ubiquitous feedback and feedforward loops create non-linear relationships among its individual components and render the study of this biology at a molecular and cellular level nearly impossible. Computational modeling aims to overcome limitations of current analytical methods through in silico simulation of these complex interplays. We present herein an Agent Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) approach for simulating these complex interactions. Our ABMS approach utilizes a subset of 48 rules to define the interactions among 24 enzymes and factors of the CS. These rules simulate the interaction of each โagentโ, such as substrates, enzymes, and cofactors, on a two-dimensional grid of ~3,000 cells and ~500,000 agents. Our ABMS method demonstrates the robustness of the physiologic CS system over large ranges of tissue factor (TF) concentrations. The system also demonstrates fragility as complete coagulation occurs at sufficiently high concentrations of TF. Removal of individual coagulation inhibitors from the physiologic system results in system fragility at relatively lower TF concentrations. The complete removal of coagulation inhibitors leads to a system that is incapable of controlling coagulation at all TF concentrations. The synergistic effects of the inhibitory pathways create an intricate regulatory mechanism that allows sufficient clot formation while preventing system wide activation of the CS; a robust system emerges.
A Cognitive-Consistency Based Model of Population Wide Attitude Change
Lakkaraju, Kiran (Sandia National Labs) | Speed, Ann (Sandia National Labs)
Attitudes play a significant role in determining how individuals process information and behave. In this paper we have developed a new computational model of population wide attitude change that captures the social level: how individuals interact and communicate information, and the cognitive level: how attitudes and concept interact with each other. The model captures the cognitive aspect by representing each individuals as a parallel constraint satisfaction network. The dynamics of this model are explored through a simple attitude change experiment where we vary the social network and distribution of attitudes in a population.
Robustness Across the Structure of Sub-Networks: The Contrast Between Infection and Information Dynamics
Grim, Patrick (Stony Brook University) | Reade, Christopher (University of Michigan) | Singer, Daniel J. (University of Michigan) | Fisher, Steven (University of Michigan) | Majewicz, Stephen (Kingsborough Community College)
In this paper we make a simple theoretical point using a practical issue as an example. The simple theoretical point is that robustness is not 'all or nothing': in asking whether a system is robust one has to ask 'robust with respect to what property?' and 'robust over what set of changes in the system?' The practical issue used to illustrate the point is an examination of degrees of linkage between sub-networks and a pointed contrast in robustness and fragility between the dynamics of (1) contact infection and (2) information transfer or belief change. Time to infection across linked sub-networks, it turns out, is fairly robust with regard to the degree of linkage between them. Time to infection is fragile and sensitive, however, with regard to the type of sub-network involved: total, ring, small world, random, or scale-free. Aspects of robustness and fragility are reversed where it is belief updating with reinforcement rather than infection that is at issue. In information dynamics, the pattern of time to consensus is robust across changes in network type but remarkably fragile with respect to degree of linkage between sub-networks. These results have important implications for public health interventions in realistic social networks, particularly with an eye to ethnic and socio-economic sub-communities, and in social networks with sub-communities changing in structure or linkage.
How do Systems Manage Their Adaptive Capacity to Successfully Handle Disruptions? A Resilience Engineering Perspective
Branlat, Matthieu (The Ohio State University) | Woods, David D. (The Ohio State University)
A large body of research describes the importance of adaptability for systems to be resilient in the face of disruptions. However, adaptive processes can be fallible, either because systems fail to adapt in situations requiring new ways of functioning, or because the adaptations themselves produce undesired consequences. A central question is then: how can systems better manage their capacity to adapt to perturbations, and constitute intelligent adaptive systems? Based on studies conducted in different high-risk domains (healthcare, mission control, military operations, urban firefighting), we have identified three basic patterns of adaptive failures or traps: (1) decompensation โ when a system exhausts its capacity to adapt as disturbances and challenges cascade; (2) working at cross-purposes โ when sub-systems or roles exhibit behaviors that are locally adaptive but globally maladaptive; (3) getting stuck in outdated behaviors โ when a system over-relies on past successes although conditions of operation change. The identification of such basic patterns then suggests ways in which a work organization, as an example of a complex adaptive system, needs to behave in order to see and avoid or recognize and escape the corresponding failures. The paper will present how expert practitioners exhibit such resilient behaviors in high-risk situations, and how adverse events can occur when systems fail to do so. We will also explore how various efforts in research related to complex adaptive systems provide fruitful directions to advance both the necessary theoretical work and the development of concrete solutions for improving systemsโ resilience.
A Kids' Open Mind Common Sense
Bosch, Antal van den (Tilburg University) | Nauts, Pim (Tilburg University) | Eckhardt, Nienke (Tilburg University)
We propose a collaborative approach to the issue of resource creation for commonsense computing by developing a collaboratory application aimed at children. Human validation is enabled through a game-with-a-purpose (GWAP) interface, gathering reliability judgements of assertions that can be used to aid the process of resource validation. Our experiments confirm that children aged 10 to 12 can be valuable and reliable partners in building commonsense databases, due to their stage of mental development and their eagerness to play GWAPs. Results show that children adapt their word choice in the assertions they provide to the difficulty level of the stimuli words, and that the judgements gathered through in-game validation can help to validate about 30% of the gathered statements automatically.
A Commonsense Knowledge Base for Generating Childrenโs Stories
Ong, Ethel ChuaJoy (De La Salle University - Manila)
This paper presents our work in developing a commonsense knowledge source based on semantic concepts about objects, activities and their relationships in a childโs daily life. This commonsense ontology is then used by our automatic story generator to output children's stories of the fable form from a given input picture. The generated story is a narration of the events of a basic plot that flows from negative to positive (rule violation to value acquisition), using themes that are familiar to children. The paper ends with descriptions of further investigations that are underway to extend the system, including using a formal upper ontology to represent storytelling knowledge, and the generation of stories from a given set of sequential scenes.
Goal-Oriented Knowledge Collection
Kuo, Yen-Ling (National Taiwan University) | Hsu, Jane Yung-jen (National Taiwan University)
Games with A Purpose (GWAP) has been demonstrated to be efficient in collecting large amount of knowledge from online users, e.g. Verbosity and Virtual Pet game. However, its effectiveness in knowledge base (KB) construction has not been explored in previous research. This paper examines the knowledge collected in the Vir- tual Pet game and presents an approach to collect more knowledge driven by the existing relations in KB. In this paper, goal-oriented knowledge collection successfully draws 10572 answers for the "foodโ domain. The answers are verified by online voting to show that 92.07% of them are good sentences and 95.89% of them are new sentences. This result is a significant improvement over the original Virtual Pet game, with 80.58% good sentences and 67.56% weekly new information.
CrossBridge: Finding Analogies Using Dimensionality Reduction
Krishnamurthy, Jayant (Carnegie Mellon University) | Lieberman, Henry (MIT Media Laboratory)
We present CrossBridge, a practical algorithm for retrieving analogies in large, sparse semantic networks. Other algorithms adopt a generate-and-test approach, retrieving candidate analogies by superficial similarity of concepts, then testing them for the particular relations involved in the analogy. CrossBridge adopts a global approach. It organizes the entire knowledge space at once, as a matrix of small concept-and-relation subgraph patterns versus actual occurrences of subgraphs from the knowledge base. It uses the familiar mathematics of dimensionality reduction to reorganize this space along dimensions representing approximate semantic similarity of these subgraphs. Analogies can then be retrieved by simple nearest-neighbor comparison. CrossBridge also takes into account not only knowledge directly related to the source and target domains, but also a large background Commonsense knowledge base. Commonsense influences the mapping between domains, preserving important relations while ignoring others. This property allows CrossBridge to find more intuitive and extensible analogies. We compare our approach with an implementation of structure mapping and show that our algorithm consistently finds analogies in cases where structure mapping fails. We also present some discovered analogies.
SenticNet: A Publicly Available Semantic Resource for Opinion Mining
Cambria, Erik (University of Stirling) | Speer, Robyn (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) | Havasi, Catherine (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) | Hussain, Amir (University of Stirling)
Today millions of web-users express their opinions about many topics through blogs, wikis, fora, chats and social networks. For sectors such as e-commerce and e-tourism, it is very useful to automatically analyze the huge amount of social information available on the Web, but the extremely unstructured nature of these contents makes it a difficult task. SenticNet is a publicly available resource for opinion mining built exploiting AI and Semantic Web techniques. It uses dimensionality reduction to infer the polarity of common sense concepts and hence provide a public resource for mining opinions from natural language text at a semantic, rather than just syntactic, level.