Energy disaggregation is the task of taking a whole-home energy signal and separating it into its component appliances. Studies have shown that having device-level energy information can cause users to conserve significant amounts of energy, but current electricity meters only report whole-home data. Thus, developing algorithmic methods for disaggregation presents a key technical challenge in the effort to maximize energy conservation. In this paper, we examine a large scale energy disaggregation task, and apply a novel extension of sparse coding to this problem. In particular, we develop a method, based upon structured prediction, for discriminatively training sparse coding algorithms specifically to maximize disaggregation performance. We show that this significantly improves the performance of sparse coding algorithms on the energy task and illustrate how these disaggregation results can provide useful information about energy usage.

We present a novel algorithm, Random Conic Pursuit, that solves semidefinite programs (SDPs) via repeated optimization over randomly selected two-dimensional subcones of the PSD cone. This scheme is simple, easily implemented, applicable to very general SDPs, scalable, and theoretically interesting. Its advantages are realized at the expense of an ability to readily compute highly exact solutions, though useful approximate solutions are easily obtained. This property renders Random Conic Pursuit of particular interest for machine learning applications, in which the relevant SDPs are generally based upon random data and so exact minima are often not a priority. Indeed, we present empirical results to this effect for various SDPs encountered in machine learning; these experiments demonstrate the potential practical usefulness of Random Conic Pursuit. We also provide a preliminary analysis that yields insight into the theoretical properties and convergence of the algorithm.

When animals repeatedly choose actions from multiple alternatives, they can allocate their choices stochastically depending on past actions and outcomes. It is commonly assumed that this ability is achieved by modifications in synaptic weights related to decision making. Choice behavior has been empirically found to follow Herrnstein’s matching law. Loewenstein & Seung (2006) demonstrated that matching behavior is a steady state of learning in neural networks if the synaptic weights change proportionally to the covariance between reward and neural activities. However, their proof did not take into account the change in entire synaptic distributions. In this study, we show that matching behavior is not necessarily a steady state of the covariance-based learning rule when the synaptic strength is sufficiently strong so that the fluctuations in input from individual sensory neurons influence the net input to output neurons. This is caused by the increasing variance in the input potential due to the diffusion of synaptic weights. This effect causes an undermatching phenomenon, which has been observed in many behavioral experiments. We suggest that the synaptic diffusion effects provide a robust neural mechanism for stochastic choice behavior.

We consider bandit problems, motivated by applications in online advertising and news story selection, in which the learner must repeatedly select a slate, that is, a subset of size s from K possible actions, and then receives rewards for just the selected actions. The goal is to minimize the regret with respect to total reward of the best slate computed in hindsight. We consider unordered and ordered versions of the problem, and give efficient algorithms which have regret O(sqrt(T)), where the constant depends on the specific nature of the problem. We also consider versions of the problem where we have access to a number of policies which make recommendations for slates in every round, and give algorithms with O(sqrt(T)) regret for competing with the best such policy as well. We make use of the technique of relative entropy projections combined with the usual multiplicative weight update algorithm to obtain our algorithms.

Experts (human or computer) are often required to assess the probability of uncertain events. When a collection of experts independently assess events that are structurally interrelated, the resulting assessment may violate fundamental laws of probability. Such an assessment is termed incoherent. In this work we investigate how the problem of incoherence may be affected by allowing experts to specify likelihood models and then update their assessments based on the realization of a globally-observable random sequence.

Games of incomplete information, or Bayesian games, are an important game-theoretic model and have many applications in economics. We propose Bayesian action-graph games (BAGGs), a novel graphical representation for Bayesian games. BAGGs can represent arbitrary Bayesian games, and furthermore can compactly express Bayesian games exhibiting commonly encountered types of structure including symmetry, action- and type-specific utility independence, and probabilistic independence of type distributions. We provide an algorithm for computing expected utility in BAGGs, and discuss conditions under which the algorithm runs in polynomial time. Bayes-Nash equilibria of BAGGs can be computed by adapting existing algorithms for complete-information normal form games and leveraging our expected utility algorithm. We show both theoretically and empirically that our approaches improve significantly on the state of the art.

In this paper we consider the fundamental problem of semi-supervised kernel function learning. We propose a general regularized framework for learning a kernel matrix, and then demonstrate an equivalence between our proposed kernel matrix learning framework and a general linear transformation learning problem. Our result shows that the learned kernel matrices parameterize a linear transformation kernel function and can be applied inductively to new data points. Furthermore, our result gives a constructive method for kernelizing most existing Mahalanobis metric learning formulations. To make our results practical for large-scale data, we modify our framework to limit the number of parameters in the optimization process. We also consider the problem of kernelized inductive dimensionality reduction in the semi-supervised setting. We introduce a novel method for this problem by considering a special case of our general kernel learning framework where we select the trace norm function as the regularizer. We empirically demonstrate that our framework learns useful kernel functions, improving the $k$-NN classification accuracy significantly in a variety of domains. Furthermore, our kernelized dimensionality reduction technique significantly reduces the dimensionality of the feature space while achieving competitive classification accuracies.

We propose a new probabilistic model for analyzing dynamic evolutions of relational data, such as additions, deletions and split & merge, of relation clusters like communities in social networks. Our proposed model abstracts observed time-varying object-object relationships into relationships between object clusters. We extend the infinite Hidden Markov model to follow dynamic and time-sensitive changes in the structure of the relational data and to estimate a number of clusters simultaneously. We show the usefulness of the model through experiments with synthetic and real-world data sets.

A new algorithm is proposed for a) unsupervised learning of sparse representations from subsampled measurements and b) estimating the parameters required for linearly reconstructing signals from the sparse codes. We verify that the new algorithm performs efficient data compression on par with the recent method of compressive sampling. Further, we demonstrate that the algorithm performs robustly when stacked in several stages or when applied in undercomplete or overcomplete situations. The new algorithm can explain how neural populations in the brain that receive subsampled input through fiber bottlenecks are able to form coherent response properties.

Predicting the execution time of computer programs is an important but challenging problem in the community of computer systems. Existing methods require experts to perform detailed analysis of program code in order to construct predictors or select important features. We recently developed a new system to automatically extract a large number of features from program execution on sample inputs, on which prediction models can be constructed without expert knowledge. In this paper we study the construction of predictive models for this problem. We propose the SPORE (Sparse POlynomial REgression) methodology to build accurate prediction models of program performance using feature data collected from program execution on sample inputs. Our two SPORE algorithms are able to build relationships between responses (e.g., the execution time of a computer program) and features, and select a few from hundreds of the retrieved features to construct an explicitly sparse and non-linear model to predict the response variable. The compact and explicitly polynomial form of the estimated model could reveal important insights into the computer program (e.g., features and their non-linear combinations that dominate the execution time), enabling a better understanding of the program’s behavior. Our evaluation on three widely used computer programs shows that SPORE methods can give accurate prediction with relative error less than 7% by using a moderate number of training data samples. In addition, we compare SPORE algorithms to state-of-the-art sparse regression algorithms, and show that SPORE methods, motivated by real applications, outperform the other methods in terms of both interpretability and prediction accuracy.